The problem with thinking you know more than the experts

[Markola]

And we really are a bunch of ultracrepidarians, especially with the web at fingers reach.

I read the entire string and choose MuirWannabe as my winner. I vote we change the name of the “ER Forum” to “Ultracrepidarians R US. org”

 

[Nemo2]

Are Ultracrepidarians and Ultracrapidarians synonymous?

 

[Lcountz]

Two words:

Howard Beale.

If you know who he is, you know WHY.

If you don't, look him up...where else?

On You Tube.

 

[indiajust]

experts

i remember global cooling, eggs are bad for you, wooden cutting surfaces will kill you, ... experts frequently wrong and powerfully herd motivated, gubmint influenced or outright controlled.

I'll make my own decisions.

 

[Just_Steve]

That's why I only trust 16 year old high school dropouts from Sweden.

How dare you.

 

[Koolau]

i remember global cooling, eggs are bad for you, wooden cutting surfaces will kill you, ... experts frequently wrong and powerfully herd motivated, gubmint influenced or outright controlled.

I'll make my own decisions.

I recall when the "experts" in finance (you know, the E. Jones of the world) said I was making a mistake for no longer using their services. I pointed out that when I lost money (from their advice) it was still my problem, so why not take full responsibility not only for the results but for the decisions (oh, and save the fees!) They were not pleased.

I'm sure the Covid experts have lots of expertise that I don't have. Having said that, they won't be responsible for me if they are wrong. Why not eliminate the middle man. I'm reasonably intelligent AND educated. I'll take their expert advice into account and then do what I think is best for me. As always, YMMV.

 

[jollystomper]

That's why I only trust 16 year old high school dropouts from Sweden.

Oh, SNAP!

 

[jollystomper]

I recall when the "experts" in finance (you know, the E. Jones of the world) said I was making a mistake for no longer using their services. I pointed out that when I lost money (from their advice) it was still my problem, so why not take full responsibility not only for the results but for the decisions (oh, and save the fees!) They were not pleased.

I'm sure the Covid experts have lots of expertise that I don't have. Having said that, they won't be responsible for me if they are wrong. Why not eliminate the middle man. I'm reasonably intelligent AND educated. I'll take their expert advice into account and then do what I think is best for me. As always, YMMV.

The first paragraph reminds me of what I do when I receive offers to manage my finances from those who promise they can beat the market averages. I tell them Are you willing to do the following: if what you manage for me beats the market, I will let you keep whatever gain over the market you generate for me. But if you do not beat the market averages, you pay me the amount you lost me below the market average". Never had a taker.

The second paragraph brings up one of the concerns I believe people have with "experts" - the perceived lack of accountability if they are wrong. Perhaps that is because when the experts are wrong, you rarely hear them just say they were wrong, apologize, and discuss what is needed to make amends for their mistake - it becomes more along the lines of "we were only wrong because we did not have the proper data at the time". Few perceive of any repercussions happening to them.

While I would not completely ignore the experts, I do take things with a grain of salt for three reasons:

1) Becoming an expert in a field does not require 100% perfection. As my brother, a doctor, put it, "even those with the lowest passing grades in Medical School and Medical Boards still qualify to be doctors". My relatives in law enforcement has said similar things.

2) There is a difference between what I call "book knowledge" and what I call "hands-on knowledge". From my time as a "subject matter expert" in various disciplines during my time at Megacorp, I saw people being touted as experts who had only read the documentation or, worse, created a presentation. When it came to actual "hands-on" experience they had none, or had so little so long ago that it was no longer relevant. When I myself was called to give presentations at conferences, I was only comfortable with giving presentations on matters that I, or someone that I trusted, had direct, hands on experience with - and was always willing to share the good, bad and ugly of the experience.

3) I have learned that "politics" is in everything, including science. Who gets appointed to scientific/technical positions of expertise and leadership is not devoid of political dealings and pressures. The greatest example I have seem of this during this epidemic is the treatment of Taiwan. They have expertise if dealing with past epidemics, and they took actions early that many could have learned from and kept they infection/death rate very low. But even though the have the technical and scientific knowledge, they are not allowed to work with the World Health Organization, and when the WHO is questioned about that they ignore or refuse to answer the questions.

Even with taking a grain of salt, the question for me still remains "to what degree am I willing to take personal responsibility if I am wrong?" You can see many areas where individuals believe they are "experts" in order to, in their mind, exercise their liberty: speed limits, what and the quantity of things they choose to eat or drink, how they act when they believe a law to be "unfair", etc. But when there actions are proven wrong, human nature has to fight against the "its not my fault" desire and find someone to blame. I manage my own money, and though I am down along with almost everyone else this year, I know I have only myself to blame, and I am fine with that. When it comes to potential life and death issues, I have to be willing to take that same view.

 

[martyp]

I think the problem with both experts and laypersons is knowing what you don’t know.

 

[Midpack]

the main problem with virtually most media? lack of curiosity and the inability to compose an actual question.

Along with (reporters) statements poorly disguised as questions. Happens all the time, the “question” goes on long after the ask, or the question is framed in an attempt force the desired answer. Some questions are just plain stupid, how do you feel, do you have any regrets now that we’ve passed XX deaths? WTH!

 

[Midpack]

Re: experts. Some of the smartest people I’ve known didn’t go past a HS diploma - made me sad knowing what they might have accomplished had they had access to higher ed, though some were self taught.

Some of the dumbest (in practical terms) people I’ve known had PhD’s. Useless smarts...

But in both cases, they were admittedly exceptions.

 

[candrew]

Are Ultracrepidarians and Ultracrapidarians synonymous?

And there you go talkin' sh*t again.

 

[Koolau]

Along with (reporters) statements poorly disguised as questions. Happens all the time, the “question” goes on long after the ask, or the question is framed in an attempt force the desired answer. Some questions are just plain stupid, how do you feel, do you have any regrets now that we’ve passed XX deaths? WTH!

My favorite media questions goes something like this (maybe a bit exaggerated): "Given that you are an idiot, racist, control-freak, misogynist and your wife and dog are ugly, do you think it will rain on February 22 of 2025 - and if it does, will you have your umbrella with you, you useless piece of cr@p?"