I'm right in my retirement year, which according to the many threads on SORR, this is supposed to be the most conservative year of my life, the next five years determine whether I will barely make it, have a vacation home, or even have to go back to...work, for a few extra years at most. So partially because of that, partially because I would like to get into value investing with 5-10% of my portfolio, and see nothing obvious while I am currently learning the ropes, I decreased my position from 80/0/20 to 65/15/20 by buying short-term TIPS using TSM stocks a few days ago.
My honest reasoning for not doing this earlier, was 1) I felt that while stocks have been overvalued since 2019, COVID would cause a forced slowdown that would stall out the occurrence of a recession by an extra 2-4 years, and 2) I wasn't seeing crazy speculative things happening yet, which usually occurs a year or two before a bubble pop, the sort of crazy things that have been occuring in late 2020, and all of 2021, starting with GME/bitcoin/housing market...etc, ironically, some of this speculative behavior also seems to be coming from people getting cooped up in their homes because of covid.
To sum it up, I believe, we are not due for a 5% drop, we are due for a full blown correction within the next 1-2 years. Which...will not be great for my SOR
if I'm right, so I hope I'm wrong. I don't know though, and being out of the market for several good years is far worse than getting smacked straight in the face by a correction, so I still will always hold a majority of stocks, no matter what the environment.
