Tesla Model 3

[gerntz]

I'm not getting why people who are buying & thus apparently car afford expensive new cars should get a subsidy for doing so.

 

[explanade]

More than the fact that it's EV, I'm more interested in self-driving.

Tesla is as far out ahead as anyone else.

But it's $8000 to activate the hardware and another $3000 for additional features.

Maybe in a few years, pent-up demand will wane and they'll price those options more reasonably.

 

[ulrichw]

I'm not getting why people who are buying & thus apparently car afford expensive new cars should get a subsidy for doing so.

You probably meant this to be rhetorical, but I'll take the bait.

Well, one possible answer is that not all government programs have to be redistributive - i.e., not all programs have to move money from richer people to poorer people.

In this case the program is designed to artificially favor a technology because of its presumptive support of the "greater good."

You are right that it does tend to favor people with higher incomes, much like the solar tax credit does. On the other hand is it a bad thing if it helps develop the market for electric cars faster?

It's worth mentioning that the EV incentive, being a flat amount, has a much bigger impact on purchases of a $30,000 VW e-Golf than a $150,000 Tesla. However, since it is non-refundable, it requires you to have a federal tax liability of at least $7,500 to fully benefit from it - which cuts out more than half the population.

 

[explanade]

OTOH, I heard that the Chevy Bolt, which has comparable range, is not selling so well. They've cut the production schedule this summer.

Doesn't quite have the green cred as Tesla, though TBH, I wouldn't be that eager to spend $40k on a Chevy either.

 

[mpeirce]

More than the fact that it's EV, I'm more interested in self-driving.

Tesla is as far out ahead as anyone else.

I'm not so sure of that.

I have a 2014 MB E250 with all the tech that was available at the time.

It has a feature called "Distronic+" automatic cruise control. At highway speeds it
steers the car to keep it in the lane. It also maintains a minimum following distance behind the car ahead. So no feet on pedals and you can take your hands off the steering wheel for a short amount of time - then it starts beeping to get you to put them back on. This is now available in many cars, but back then it was unique.

But additionally, in stop and go traffic Distronic+ goes into a mode where you can take your hands off the steering wheel indefinitely - basically self drive (in a constrained circumstance).

If the cars needs to stop, it'll start back up if the stop is only for a few seconds. If the car is topped longer, you need to tap the accelerator to get it moving again.

Pretty good for a 2014 model.

Back when I bought it new (I picked up my car at the factory on the second day the 2014's rolled off the line) this was the most impressive "self driving" available. Tesla's are impressive too, but aren't the only game in town.

 

[Midpack]

More than the fact that it's EV, I'm more interested in self-driving.

Tesla is as far out ahead as anyone else selling vehicles to the public. However, Waymo vehicles are by far the most advanced self-driving vehicles based on vehicle miles between (driver) interventions. Waymo technology has not yet been commercialized (yet), but they plan to partner with automaker(s).

But it's $8000 to activate the hardware and another $3000 for additional features.

Maybe in a few years, pent-up demand will wane and they'll price those options more reasonably.

FIFY.

http://www.early-retirement.org/forums/f27/self-driving-cars-85740-18.html#post1851106

 

[Drake3287]

Chevy recently announced that they "may" be dropping the Volt because of those sale figures. That will make the resale value almost nothing for those that already purchased one.

When it come to buying into new technology it really pays to sit back and do your homework.

 

[explanade]

Drop the Bolt or the Bolt?

Two different models.

Audi, Benz and VW are suppose to have EVs in 2018 or 19.

 

[REWahoo]

Drop the Bolt or the Bolt?

Maybe just tighten them up?

 

[Drake3287]

The article say's Chevy Volt.

 

[explanade]

That would be the plug in hybrid.

Too bad, no range anxiety on that one.

 

[Chuckanut]

https://electrek.co/2017/07/03/gm-chevy-bolt-ev-sales-3/

Albeit slowly, GM’s Chevy Bolt EV sales are still growing – reaching a new high of 1,642 units in the US last month.
It brings the total delivered of the new all-electric vehicle in the US to 7,592 units since the beginning of the year and just over 8,000 since its launch in December 2016.
In June, GM opened Chevy Bolt EV orders for approved dealerships nationwide, But that didn’t contribute to deliveries since the first shipment to the new approved dealerships are expected in August.
At that point, we should have a better idea of the market for the Bolt EV.

IMHO, I think that all electric cars make more sense at the higher priced end of the market where affluent enthusiasts can afford them. (Looking at you Telsa Model S). Low gasoline prices mean that the cheaper cars aren't that tempting for we peons who can only afford a measly 30-40K for a car.

 

[Car-Guy]

We saw a Tesla with Texas license plates, in a small Illinois town earlier this summer.

It's probably the same one I saw "once" in Texas.

 

[explanade]

https://electrek.co/2017/07/03/gm-chevy-bolt-ev-sales-3/

IMHO, I think that all electric cars make more sense at the higher priced end of the market where affluent enthusiasts can afford them. (Looking at you Telsa Model S). Low gasoline prices mean that the cheaper cars aren't that tempting for we peons who can only afford a measly 30-40K for a car.

At least in the early stages, EV are for more affluent consumers who would cross-shop to the lower-priced BMW, Audi, Benz, etc. models.

For one thing, you would need to live in a home with access to a charger, preferably inside (I saw an apt. complex with some charging stations outside but there was a limit so you'd have to move your car after like 4 hours to let others use them).

For another, you might have to spend to get like a 220V line.

Plus the cost of the battery means cars around $40k, likely well over it.

I don't think the energy economics will recoup the premium over a gas car. However, some people want zero emissions.

Recently, some countries have set deadlines for the banning of ICE cars. India said in 13 years and France and the UK have set 2040 as their deadlines.

I think some big cities like Paris and London may act earlier because they're suffering from pollution, especially diesel engine particulates.

 

[Texas Proud]

OTOH, I heard that the Chevy Bolt, which has comparable range, is not selling so well. They've cut the production schedule this summer.

Doesn't quite have the green cred as Tesla, though TBH, I wouldn't be that eager to spend $40k on a Chevy either.

I looked and the used car market is MUCH better.... one that is a few years old with 30K ish miles can be had for less than $15K.... it has peaked my interest.... except that I do not like GM that much...


Edit... sorry, I was referring to the Volt, not the Bolt

 

[explanade]

I looked and the used car market is MUCH better.... one that is a few years old with 30K ish miles can be had for less than $15K.... it has peaked my interest.... except that I do not like GM that much...


Edit... sorry, I was referring to the Volt, not the Bolt

I think around $40k, people are expecting design and interiors comparable to the "premium" marques around the same price range.

The only thing is, the batteries are a huge cost so it doesn't leave a lot of room to spend on nicer interior materials. GM and Chevy in particular aren't known for interior finishes anyways and while they ramp up battery production, they have very little room to spend on nicer materials.

One of the options on the Model 3, which I believe is being included in all the early Model 3s, is the Premium Interior package for $5000.

Tesla wants to boost the ASP of those early models. Maybe after they've worked through the backlog, they will produce more basic models.

But when you buy a BMW with a Premium or Luxury package, it's often discounted quite a bit as part of the deal for the car. So in that sense, I think the $5000 price is too steep for something people may bypass.

On the Tesla site itself, they try to upsell you from the Model 3 to the S.

I was listening to a podcast and they surmised that the units they're building now are almost hand built. What they're going to do is to try to find a manufacturing process to reduce costs and build them faster.

So the cars they deliver next year or maybe the 100,000th Model 3 they built may not be built in the same way as the first ones now. Once they scale up the volume, maybe the quality won't be quite the same, if they run into problems while scaling up.

 

[aja8888]

It's probably the same one I saw "once" in Texas.

As I mentioned, I have seen a few in The Woodlands and Alan saw two at Whole Foods here also. Sounds like Teslas are becoming "grocery getters" in The Woodlands, That makes sense since the upper crust around here are buying the German machinery.

 

[explanade]

Can any oil industry employee be caught in one without repercussions?

 

[aja8888]

Can any oil industry employee be caught in one without repercussions?

Nah, and if they do buy one, they give it to their wife to drive.

 

[ERD50]

...
I don't think the energy economics will recoup the premium over a gas car. However, some people want zero emissions. ....

OK, I was trying to stay away from this topic, but now you went and done it!

EVs only have zero "tailpipe" emissions, which is meaningless since they have no "tailpipes"! I think I'll get some stickers for our cars: "Zero Power Plant Emissions!"

And as I've pointed out in past threads, since it takes additional marginal electrical energy to charge an EV, and any renewable 'green' energy is already used, the EVs are actually running mostly on fossil fuel (or hydro/nukes if that is prevalent in your area, but many greenies have issues with both of those).

-ERD50

 

[gerntz]

You probably meant this to be rhetorical, but I'll take the bait.

Well, one possible answer is that not all government programs have to be redistributive - i.e., not all programs have to move money from richer people to poorer people.

In this case the program is designed to artificially favor a technology because of its presumptive support of the "greater good."

You are right that it does tend to favor people with higher incomes, much like the solar tax credit does. On the other hand is it a bad thing if it helps develop the market for electric cars faster?

It's worth mentioning that the EV incentive, being a flat amount, has a much bigger impact on purchases of a $30,000 VW e-Golf than a $150,000 Tesla. However, since it is non-refundable, it requires you to have a federal tax liability of at least $7,500 to fully benefit from it - which cuts out more than half the population.

Thanks. It will be curious to see how many ev's sell without the incentive. As you say, more than half the population is cut out of the benefits.

 

[gerntz]

I'm not so sure of that.

I have a 2014 MB E250 with all the tech that was available at the time.

It has a feature called "Distronic+" automatic cruise control. At highway speeds it
steers the car to keep it in the lane. It also maintains a minimum following distance behind the car ahead. So no feet on pedals and you can take your hands off the steering wheel for a short amount of time - then it starts beeping to get you to put them back on. This is now available in many cars, but back then it was unique.

But additionally, in stop and go traffic Distronic+ goes into a mode where you can take your hands off the steering wheel indefinitely - basically self drive (in a constrained circumstance).

If the cars needs to stop, it'll start back up if the stop is only for a few seconds. If the car is topped longer, you need to tap the accelerator to get it moving again.

Pretty good for a 2014 model.

Back when I bought it new (I picked up my car at the factory on the second day the 2014's rolled off the line) this was the most impressive "self driving" available. Tesla's are impressive too, but aren't the only game in town.

Same for my '15 C300 bought in Fall 2014. Great features.

 

[Zathras]

To the original question...

We are planning to get the shorter range Model 3 between December and February 2018. If, at that point, heated front seats are only available as part of the premium package we will get the interior premium package.

Quite happy with RWD in MN winters. The RWD Tesla's I have driven in the winter handle better than any FWD cars in winter. (We will get winter tires).

18" wheels (don't need the 19" upgrade).

We will probably get the EAP package. However, I will wait for the self driving until after it is ready.

As for the federal rebate, current estimates from people following this is that the full rebate will be available to all customers that take delivery/title their cars before the end of September 2018. After that, half the rebate will be available until the end of March 2019. Then I believe it is a quarter of the rebate for the next quarter or two.

 

[Midpack]

We are planning to get the shorter range Model 3 between December and February 2018. If, at that point, heated front seats are only available as part of the premium package we will get the interior premium package.

IIRC you've had a Model S for some time, so you'd have more credibility re: Tesla than most of us (fence sitters & skeptics). If you don't mind the question, will the Model 3 replace the Model S or will you become a multi EV household?

 

[Zathras]

IIRC you've had a Model S for some time, so you'd have more credibility re: Tesla than most of us (fence sitters & skeptics). If you don't mind the question, will the Model 3 replace the Model S or will you become a multi EV household?

That is kind of you, thanks

We are currently an EV only household. The Model 3 will be replacing the Model S.
I prefer a smaller vehicle, and a less expensive one. The 3 is the car I have been looking forward to ever since Musk published his 'secret master plan'