Self Driving Cars?

... I like the Hyperloop idea. It's a closed system so you wouldn't have non-SDC vehicles, pedestrians, fallen trees, etc. Let me drive to a tube entrance, load my car into a pod, zip to close to my destination with no control on my part, and then unload and drive the last mile. Sure, it's got drawbacks such as sabotage, earthquake damage, etc., but are those insurmountable? It's definitely not as far along as SDCs, but you still may get to a working system eventually, rather than never.

For the last last miles off the hyperloop, I think a human driver with driver assistance safety features is probably best. The human needs to be alert, so I don't think an SDC with human overseer is a better idea...

Most of the fatal accidents happen in town and not on the freeways, as I recall. The Hyperloop could not help that.

Meanwhile, Waymo is forging ahead, just cut a deal with Jaguar for tens of thousands of iPace electric SUVs.

https://arstechnica.com/cars/2018/0...-will-go-classy-for-20000-electric-robotaxis/

They appear to be the only one forging ahead. It will be extremely interesting to watch.

One serious accident with the leader in SDC, then that seals the fate of this nascent technology.

Meanwhile, Toyota has paused its SDC testing on public roads. Today, NVIDIA, the chip maker that designs special chips for AI algorithm such as used in the Tesla Model 3, also suspends its self-driving tests. Shares of NVIDIA dropped 7.8%, and that of Tesla 8.2%.
 
Amazing what folks are doing on their own to unravel what happened with the uber accident. Here's a guy doing a re-creation to see how his Tesla would perform under similar conditions.
 
Amazing what folks are doing on their own to unravel what happened with the uber accident. Here's a guy doing a re-creation to see how his Tesla would perform under similar conditions.

This Tesla owner was surprised that his Tesla failed to detect an object out on the street after repeated trials. And he was going only about 1/2 the speed of the Uber car.

Does not surprise me a bit. Need to have a lidar, period. A lidar cannot read lane markings, nor traffic lights, nor street signs. But it excels at detecting 3D objects.

His is a P90, which is an S model. The new Model 3 with 3 forward cameras and super-duper deep-learning neural network still has problems following the road, as shown in an earlier video. I would be interested to see how well that Model 3 detects a pedestrian.

PS. See how people have to test critical products themselves, instead of the manufacturer doing it?

PPS. That driver needs to run down that mannequin a dozen times. Then, the computer will learn and share with other cars. :rolleyes:
 
Last edited:
Maybe Uber should consider somewhere other than Arizona for testing. Arizona is the state with the highest rate of pedestrian accident deaths. https://www.azcentral.com/story/new...n-deaths-united-states-report-says/383640002/
I'm surprised they test in the US at all. They "shopped" for Arizona to find a state with minimal restrictions and a thirst for cash. There are many countries where some money invested in the right politicians could allow them to run over lots of folks with nary a notice.
 
Here's an article that describes the sensor set on the Uber cars, the older Fusion test car as well as the current Volvo.

The earlier Fusion test cars used seven lidars, seven radars and 20 cameras. The newer Volvo test vehicles use a single lidar, 10 radars and seven cameras, Uber said.

See: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...s-questions-after-arizona-crash-idUSKBN1H337Q

The article made a point about the Uber lidar having a blind zone around the car, but I do not see that it is relevant in this accident.

The Uber lidar is roof-mounted, and should have no problem seeing the pedestrian. It cannot look down to see objects near the car, so obviously they rely on the radars and cameras for close-in objects. Again, not a factor in this accident.

By the way, here's how Waymo keeps their lidar clean from bird poop.

Waymo%2Bcar-1.gif
 
Last edited:
I'm surprised they test in the US at all. They "shopped" for Arizona to find a state with minimal restrictions and a thirst for cash. There are many countries where some money invested in the right politicians could allow them to run over lots of folks with nary a notice.
Eh, with all this talk about machine self-learning, the test cars may just get so used to running over folks, and cannot unlearn that habit to be brought back to the US.

Sorry. Just can't get over the BS about fleet learning.
 
One of the things that I will throw out is that in the future, when SDCs are the majority of the cars, the SDCs should be able to talk to each other... IMO this will mitigate a good number of problems that we are discussing since you do not have to worry about the other cars... well, not as much...


Say 80% of cars are SDCs... they will talk to each other and then they will know which of the 20% are not and can spend their time making sure that they are more careful around them....


This does nothing about the lady being killed as that was bad engineering... there should be no reason that someone walking across the street should not be seen by the car... even if there was no lights... including the car lights....

Vehicles talking to each other is an on going project, if interested just search for V2V communication.
 
Maybe Uber should consider somewhere other than Arizona for testing. Arizona is the state with the highest rate of pedestrian accident deaths. https://www.azcentral.com/story/new...n-deaths-united-states-report-says/383640002/

On the other hand, perhaps you get the most rigorous testing in Arizona? Not good for Uber, but good for us who will be using these cars in the future. Or we will be in other human-driven cars surrounded by these self-driving cars. It's not good for the folks who are injured or die, of course - I am not trying to be flippant.
 
PS. See how people have to test critical products themselves, instead of the manufacturer doing it?

PPS. That driver needs to run down that mannequin a dozen times. Then, the computer will learn and share with other cars. :rolleyes:

Yeah, right. My background is automotive test and this approach from the high tech companies boggles the mind. What struck me about the AZ testing is how much easier it is to negotiate the relatively wide, straight and flat roads with no potholes.
 
The following photo is that of the freeway barrier that the Tesla Model X crashed into in Mountain View, CA. I highly suspect that the Autosteer mode was engaged.

screen-shot-2018-03-27-at-9-49-22-pm.jpg


Found on youtube a video of a Tesla owner who tested his car with a similar barrier. The video is dated Jan 8, 2018.

People may have fun testing their SDC in this manner, but I do not personally find it enjoyable when my life is endangered. You have to wait to see if the car is going to do the right thing, but then you lose precious seconds to save your butt. And some idiots do not even have their hands on the steering wheel. To that, Tesla has been saying "Tough luck".

 
Last edited:
I think I have read all the posts on this thread, very well thought out and lots of info. While I do believe that eventually SDC will come, we are clearly not there yet, and there is just so much hype from the SDC companies.

From all I can tell the Tesla system is an really nothing more than an advanced cruise control, and it should have been called that. It is obviously not by any stretch of the imagination what a normal user would assume an auto pilot would be. It should have been called advanced cruise control, which is what it is, and not auto pilot, which it is not. But that would not give it the spin to sell a car with autopilot bragging rights.

In addition, even from the limited videos about the Uber death, the Uber SDC software was by no means ready for driverless control, or even testing on city streets. Its inability to react to the pedestrian in front of it should have been evident if it had been tested properly, which it clearly wasn't. There was also problems with their human driver protocol.

Before I retired I was in embedded systems software for over 30 years, and there were many times clients wanted to ship their product before it was tested, so no doubt this is what happened with Uber.

This is so sad to see but I have to say, knowing what I know about managers wanting to look good fast, I am not at all surprised at them taking these risks. The problems with them rushing all this out too fast is that innocent people can die.

It seems to me we are about at the point where the SDC manufacturers and state governments need to get together and develop a set of standards that every SDC must pass before it is allowed on city streets. We can not make it perfect, but it is better than we have now. Certainly at the very minimum any SDC needs to be able to see and react to an object in front of it, and if it doesn't know what to do, then stop and alert the human driver.
 
I think I have read all the posts on this thread, very well thought out and lots of info. While I do believe that eventually SDC will come, we are clearly not there yet, and there is just so much hype from the SDC companies.

From all I can tell the Tesla system is an really nothing more than an advanced cruise control, and it should have been called that. It is obviously not by any stretch of the imagination what a normal user would assume an auto pilot would be. It should have been called advanced cruise control, which is what it is, and not auto pilot, which it is not. But that would not give it the spin to sell a car with autopilot bragging rights.

In addition, even from the limited videos about the Uber death, the Uber SDC software was by no means ready for driverless control, or even testing on city streets. Its inability to react to the pedestrian in front of it should have been evident if it had been tested properly, which it clearly wasn't. There was also problems with their human driver protocol.

Before I retired I was in embedded systems software for over 30 years, and there were many times clients wanted to ship their product before it was tested, so no doubt this is what happened with Uber.

This is so sad to see but I have to say, knowing what I know about managers wanting to look good fast, I am not at all surprised at them taking these risks. The problems with them rushing all this out too fast is that innocent people can die.

It seems to me we are about at the point where the SDC manufacturers and state governments need to get together and develop a set of standards that every SDC must pass before it is allowed on city streets. We can not make it perfect, but it is better than we have now. Certainly at the very minimum any SDC needs to be able to see and react to an object in front of it, and if it doesn't know what to do, then stop and alert the human driver.

In particular it does appear that Uber's corporate culture is designed to push things out as fast as possible, and with other things safety is a lesser priority to beating the competition. (See the issue of driver background checks for example). It appears that Uber has an very bad corporate culture, not the safety culture traditional auto companies have.
So as other stories have suggested at Uber should just drop out of the race, (as indeed they have a huge money leak in their entire business as they loose money on each ride.) https://arstechnica.com/cars/2018/0...ect-is-struggling-the-company-should-sell-it/. The article points out that uber will run out of money in 2019 and it is getting harder and harder for them to find investors to pour more money down that drain. (It is not clear that they can afford the 3 or more years until they would get a workable system)
 
... the limited videos about the Uber death, the Uber SDC software was by no means ready for driverless control, or even testing on city streets. Its inability to react to the pedestrian in front of it should have been evident if it had been tested properly, which it clearly wasn't...

Not to defend Uber, but they would have already tested this very basic function. That is, their lidar had to be able to detect pedestrians or a vehicle in front, or in a collision path with their car. They would not have been able to have so many test cars out on the public streets for that long without this basic ability. This Velodyne lidar is the same one used by many SDC developers. So, sensor performance is not the problem.

Something went very wrong on that unfortunate night. Perhaps the sensor failed and the software did not know that it failed. Perhaps the software had a glitch. For example, multi-threaded software may have a thread stalled, and did not perform all processing on all the information that it received. That would be similar to a person doing some cooking, and while receiving a phone call forgot about the pot being left on the burner.

For a system to get past the experimental phase, it has to be able to self-detect a sensor or subsystem failure, then to take graceful degradation action, such as pulling over and slowing down to a stop. Of course, a critical sensor or subsystem may fail in such a way that the system cannot even make a safe stop. Think processor failures or power supply failures.

Hence, they will need redundancy for all critical subsystems. The testing of the ability of the system to handle these failures can be done most economically in the lab, and does not have to be done in the streets.

The developers only go out in the streets to test their sensor performance in real-world situation, or to see if their system brain can handle the more complex scenarios, such as being surrounded by other cars, bicyclists, pedestrians, etc... This is the kind of stimulus that is very difficult to simulate in the lab. And I do believe it can be safely tested in the streets because of the slow speed to allow for human overriding. Waymo has been doing it for a few years, using a toy car that could go only 25 mph.

So, something fell through the crack. A failure in hardware or software occurred, and they did not detect it, or knew how to handle it.

The failure of the Teslas has been mostly sensor performance. For example, look at the video I linked earlier of an owner testing the ability of his car to take an exit ramp (post #1161). He correctly observed that the left lane marking was covered up by gravel at 1:10, and the car needed that marking to follow the road. The vision system was not smart enough to tell where the road was without the lane markings, while humans have no problem.

So, don't discount the ability of the humans to make sense out of things that the computer cannot, despite all the hype about AI.

And that is just to keep the car on the road, and nothing yet about watching for other cars, pedestrians, bicyclists, stray objects on the road, reading street signs, etc...
 
Last edited:
Hence, they will need redundancy for all critical subsystems. The testing of the ability of the system to handle these failures can be done most economically in the lab, and does not have to be done in the streets.



So, something fell through the crack. A failure in hardware or software occurred, and they did not detect it, or knew how to handle it.
Which is why it took so long and so much effort to get autopilots on planes from simple wing leveling and then following a course to the ability to autoland. (Plus the airplane still has a pilot who is in the end responsible even if it is the auto pilots fault since the pilot can always switch it off. The Air France story a few years about the flight from Rio to Paris shows the dangers of becoming to dependent on the machine.
 
In particular it does appear that Uber's corporate culture is designed to push things out as fast as possible, and with other things safety is a lesser priority to beating the competition.
Why does Uber even want to be in the SDC business? This type of very intensive and demanding technology development does not seem to be a core competency they have, and it's not clearly directly related to their main business (linking people who want rides to those who want to offer them). Yes, they want to be a transportation company (but so do Ford and the other auto makers--they see the future is selling a service, not selling cars). Uber can buy SDCs from whoever builds them and incorporate them into their ride system. They don't have the money to do this development, and it doesn't appear that they are very good at it, anyway. If Tesla also runs out of dough (as it appears they may), it would be ironic if the remaining players in this high-tech field are those old, stodgy car companies who are plodding along and developing things the old fashioned way.
 
Why does Uber even want to be in the SDC business? This type of very intensive and demanding technology development does not seem to be a core competency they have, and it's not clearly directly related to their main business (linking people who want rides to those who want to offer them). Yes, they want to be a transportation company (but so do Ford and the other auto makers--they see the future is selling a service, not selling cars). Uber can buy SDCs from whoever builds them and incorporate them into their ride system. They don't have the money to do this development, and it doesn't appear that they are very good at it, anyway. If Tesla also runs out of dough (as it appears they may), it would be ironic if the remaining players in this high-tech field are those old, stodgy car companies who are plodding along and developing things the old fashioned way.

That's what I wonder too.

Maybe they have reason to believe that SDCs won't be sold for awhile.

If they don't get the sensor prices down initially, the business model might be for other SDC companies like Waymo to run a ride-sharing service.

That is what Waymo, thought to be the leader, is planning to do.

That is an existential threat to Uber.
 
Which is why it took so long and so much effort to get autopilots on planes from simple wing leveling and then following a course to the ability to autoland. (Plus the airplane still has a pilot who is in the end responsible even if it is the auto pilots fault since the pilot can always switch it off. The Air France story a few years about the flight from Rio to Paris shows the dangers of becoming to dependent on the machine.

Yes.

And way earlier in this thread, I tried to point out that an autopilot with autoland capability was much easier than SDC development. Most of the money and effort went into the testing and certification. The basic design was done relatively quickly, compared to the analysis and testing that took about 90% of the time and cost.

Subsystem failures were introduced to demonstrate detection and automatic recovery. When needed, component failures down to a broken or shorted wire, a failed IC chip, a transistor, resistor, etc... were either shown by simulation, analysis, or actual failure insertion to demonstrate that it would not crash the aircraft.

We had it a lot easier with environmental factors. Random wind gusts, windshear, sensor noise and perturbation could be defined by models. The real-world scenario around a car in Manhattan downtown is a lot more chaotic and unpredictable.
 
Last edited:
Why does Uber even want to be in the SDC business? This type of very intensive and demanding technology development does not seem to be a core competency they have, and it's not clearly directly related to their main business (linking people who want rides to those who want to offer them). Yes, they want to be a transportation company (but so do Ford and the other auto makers--they see the future is selling a service, not selling cars). Uber can buy SDCs from whoever builds them and incorporate them into their ride system. They don't have the money to do this development, and it doesn't appear that they are very good at it, anyway. If Tesla also runs out of dough (as it appears they may), it would be ironic if the remaining players in this high-tech field are those old, stodgy car companies who are plodding along and developing things the old fashioned way.

That's what I wonder too.

Maybe they have reason to believe that SDCs won't be sold for awhile.

If they don't get the sensor prices down initially, the business model might be for other SDC companies like Waymo to run a ride-sharing service.

That is what Waymo, thought to be the leader, is planning to do.

That is an existential threat to Uber.

Someone linked an article earlier that described how Levandowski left Waymo to go have his own consultant firm, then ended up working for Kalani who at that time was Uber CEO. Levandowski is an ambitious guy, as most of these guys are. They all want to be the first.
 
... Uber can buy SDCs from whoever builds them and incorporate them into their ride system. They don't have the money to do this development, and it doesn't appear that they are very good at it, anyway. If Tesla also runs out of dough (as it appears they may), it would be ironic if the remaining players in this high-tech field are those old, stodgy car companies who are plodding along and developing things the old fashioned way.

I do not have high hope for Tesla, not just about the financial aspect but the technical ability. Musk runs the whole show and fires people who disagree with him. Waymo is smarter besides being richer. Apple is also quietly doing it, and Apple is also smart and rich.

And I actually like stodgy car companies. Car makers are no stranger to safety issues, and liability lawsuits. And the old managers know to ask the right questions to keep the young gunslingers from doing stupid things. Need adult supervision.
 
Last edited:
I do not have high hope for Tesla, not just about the financial aspect but the technical ability. Musk runs the whole show and fires people who disagree with him. Waymo is smarter besides being richer. Apple is also quietly doing it, and Apple is also smart and rich.

And I actually like stodgy car companies. Car makers are no stranger to safety issues, and liability lawsuits. And the old managers know to ask the right questions to keep the young gunslingers from doing stupid things. Need adult supervision.
There are at least two core competencies here. An SDC is considerable new SD technology applied to a very mature product - cars.

If may be two different players, but using Waymo and GM for example.

Waymo has said they want to develop the tech, and presumably sell or license it to an automaker. They don’t want to build cars themselves and compete directly with automakers who’ve been building cars for a hundred years. That’s mostly consistent with Google, making software, not hardware (for the most part).

SD aside - GM and automakers have conventional cars down pat, you don’t see serious new competitors often. Self driving tech is not a core competency of any automaker (yet). If they can develop the tech themselves, they’ll avoid paying “overhead” to a Waymo or another tech team, and have a significant cost competitive advantage.

Self driving tech is the critical path. Will an existing automaker with deeper pockets like GM develop commercially viable SD tech in house first? Or will someone like Waymo get there first, and license the tech to an automaker who’s late to the tech party (e.g. FCA?). Or will GM and Waymo get there about the same time, so we watch a “Beta vs VHS” scenario play out? It’s going to be interesting to watch this play out in the decades ahead.
 
Last edited:
In particular it does appear that Uber's corporate culture is designed to push things out as fast as possible, and with other things safety is a lesser priority to beating the competition. (See the issue of driver background checks for example). It appears that Uber has an very bad corporate culture, not the safety culture traditional auto companies have.

I don't know that it is just an Uber issue. I think that's a software company issue. A lot of software companies do that, quality and especially security comes later.

Thinking about this some more, even Intel has taken some shortcuts and exposed just about all their processors to hacks. So maybe this is a technology industry issue.
 
There are at least two core competencies here. An SDC is considerable new SD technology applied to a very mature product - cars.

If may be two different players, but using Waymo and GM for example.

Waymo has said they want to develop the tech, and presumably sell or license it to an automaker. They don’t want to build cars themselves and compete directly with automakers who’ve been building cars for a hundred years. That’s mostly consistent with Google, making software, not hardware (for the most part).

SD aside - GM and automakers have conventional cars down pat, you don’t see serious new competitors often. Self driving tech is not a core competency of any automaker (yet). If they can develop the tech themselves, they’ll avoid paying “overhead” to a Waymo or another tech team, and have a significant cost competitive advantage.

Self driving tech is the critical path. Will an existing automaker with deeper pockets like GM develop commercially viable SD tech in house first? Or will someone like Waymo get there first, and license the tech to an automaker who’s late to the tech party (e.g. FCA?). Or will GM and Waymo get there about the same time, so we watch a “Beta vs VHS” scenario play out? It’s going to be interesting to watch this play out in the decades ahead.

I heard on CNBC this morning a good question, why is BMW not in the SDC race, the comment said they have lots of money and German engineers. Being that BMWs are upscale cars it would seem that they are well positioned to sell SDC vehicles
 
I heard on CNBC this morning a good question, why is BMW not in the SDC race, the comment said they have lots of money and German engineers. Being that BMWs are upscale cars it would seem that they are well positioned to sell SDC vehicles

Is there really a big market for a self-driving "sports car"? What's the fun in that?
 
Why would you assume they are not working on it?

BMW will apparently invest heavily in research and development next year in a bid to stay competitive and bring new tech to the table. According to the company, over $8 billion will be invested in 2018 in R&D
...
Another key aspect that will be developed with these funds is autonomous tech. In this regard, BMW will try to push the envelope, to bring its first Level 4/5 autonomous car to life by 2021 in the shape of the iNext.

BMW to Spend Over $8 Billion on Research and Development in 2018
 
Back
Top Bottom