Thoughts on TESLA

[Texas Proud]

Well perhaps they'll offer an "upgrade" option down the road, giving someone a chance to see that the smaller pack may not fit their needs. Then all Tesla needs to do is collect the $$$ and make a change in the vehicle configuration through the software. So could end up being a cash cow later.

Seems like a lot put into a car on the chance of an upgrade... sounds like a losing proposition...

 

[Texas Proud]

Of course. Health, family, and any other unforeseen life event. It is also possible that he never intended to stay long term. This is no longer the era of working for a company for 35 years and retiring.

The simple fact that turnover has occurred without supporting evidence of real problems, tells us little or nothing about the health of a business. It is just red meat for the Tesla bears to throw on the wall to see if it sticks.

Very few C suite people go to a company planning on leaving in less than a year... they would not even take the job...


Health and family would be told when the exec left... I do not think there was any mention of that... could be wrong...


Sure, it does not tell us anything about the health of the business... BUT, it is a red flag... and as I said before it is not just Tesla...


I did a quick search and saw the headlines for articles for Snap, Bank of America and others.... sure, there could be nothing wrong, but it also means that you should look a little more to see if there was something that made them decide to leave...

 

[oneill225]

Especially when person left before and came back. One can read several things into it, some good, mostly negative.

Of course, you can "read into it" as much as you would like, but do you have any evidence that either Ahuja or Wheeler left for some reason related to the operation of Tesla? I have not heard of anything, so please elaborate if you have.

I never thought I would be so interested in the CFO position at Tesla, but a little research shows that they have had two CFOs over the past 11 years; Ahuja and Wheeler. Per Wiki:

"On 13 June 2008 Ahuja was offered the position of Chief Financial Officer at Tesla Motors, reporting to then CEO and president Ze'ev Drori. In 2015 Ahuja retired from Tesla, and then returned as Chief Financial Officer again in February 2017 to replace Jason Wheeler. His retirement from Tesla after 11 years was announced on the Q4 2018 Tesla earnings call on January 30th 2019."

Wheeler claims to have left because he wanted to pursue other things. Is he lying? I don't know. Again, any inside info that you have could be useful.

One study has the average CFO tenure at 4.9 years in tech and manufacturing: https://www.kornferry.com/press/age...te-study-reveals-trends-by-title-and-industry

I think you are exaggerating the danger signals from the latest CFO change at Tesla, but that is certainly your prerogative.

 

[ERD50]

....https://www.kornferry.com/press/age...te-study-reveals-trends-by-title-and-industry

I think you are exaggerating the danger signals from the latest CFO change at Tesla, but that is certainly your prerogative.

I'll actually agree with you on that one. Might be something negative in there, but I don't see any evidence of it. If it was 2 months on the job, instead of 2 years (on this latest stint), it would be concerning. Without evidence, I'll accept the "moving on" statement. Maybe he'll join the forum here


-ERD50

 

[NW-Bound]

That's what the did originally. And well, what's old appears to be new again. According to this story, that's what they are doing once again with S and X. Model 3 not mentioned, but don't see why it would be any different.

Tesla launches new cheaper Model S and Model X with software-limited battery pack

From the above link:

Model S
Price: $85,000
Range: 310-miles
0-60mph: 4.1 sec.

Model S Extended Range
Price: $93,000
Range: 335-miles
0-60mph: 4.1 sec.

That's $8,000 for another 25 miles. If we use the typical 350Wh/mi, then Tesla charges almost $1K/kWh for the additional 8.75kWh that is released by software.

 

[bobandsherry]

I think you are exaggerating the danger signals from the latest CFO change at Tesla, but that is certainly your prerogative.

Please enlighten me as to what I exaggerated. I'm not aware that I've even taken a specific position.

In any event, this is not just one exec that's left. There's a long list of exec's who's left (I posted list earlier, too lazy to go look for it). I guess your prerogative to determine if that's good or bad. But in my opinion I will say revolving door at the management team is not usually good, especially for a growth company that requires dedicated and specific leadership skills. What is good is for execs to rotate within the company to leverage their expertise in other areas as well as their own development and understanding of key business areas. Any disagreement on that?

 

[oneill225]

I'll actually agree with you on that one. Might be something negative in there, but I don't see any evidence of it. If it was 2 months on the job, instead of 2 years (on this latest stint), it would be concerning. Without evidence, I'll accept the "moving on" statement. Maybe he'll join the forum here
-ERD50

Appreciated.

 

[oneill225]

Please enlighten me as to what I exaggerated. I'm not aware that I've even taken a specific position.

In any event, this is not just one exec that's left. There's a long list of exec's who's left (I posted list earlier, too lazy to go look for it). I guess your prerogative to determine if that's good or bad. But in my opinion I will say revolving door at the management team is not usually good, especially for a growth company that requires dedicated and specific leadership skills. What is good is for execs to rotate within the company to leverage their expertise in other areas as well as their own development and understanding of key business areas. Any disagreement on that?

I think this horse has been sufficiently beaten for now. If you want to contend that Tesla's management changes are "mostly negative", then I will agree to disagree.

 

[bobandsherry]

I think this horse has been sufficiently beaten for now. If you want to contend that Tesla's management changes are "mostly negative", then I will agree to disagree.

I think this entire thread has beaten the horse to death, don't you?

However, you ignored my question, please enlighten me as to what I exaggerated. Just asking since you made the claim so trying to understand what I supposedly said. Thanks

 

[oneill225]

Tesla Bears and Shortsellers

I am not a conspiracy guy, but I find it odd that Tesla bears will go to such lengths to find dirt on the company.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/01/tes...pictures-of-parking-lots-launch-web-site.html

I wonder if oil interests are quietly backing some of this stuff.

 

[oneill225]

I think this entire thread has beaten the horse to death, don't you?

However, you ignored my question, please enlighten me as to what I exaggerated. Just asking since you made the claim so trying to understand what I supposedly said. Thanks

Yes.

Not ignoring your question. You think the CFO change is mostly negative. I disagree. I think you are exaggerating the significance of the CFO turnover.

It looks to me like this guy came out of retirement to cover the job until another CFO was ready. That is the benign assessment. You are reading more into it based on your gut and nothing more (from what I can tell).

 

[bobandsherry]

Yes.

Not ignoring your question. You think the CFO change is mostly negative. I disagree. I think you are exaggerating the significance of the CFO turnover.

It looks to me like this guy came out of retirement to cover the job until another CFO was ready. That is the benign assessment. You are reading more into it based on your gut and nothing more (from what I can tell).

We'll agree to move on as you obviously have a specific agenda and just distort what's said to your convenience.

 

[oneill225]

We'll agree to move on as you obviously have a specific agenda and just distort what's said to your convenience.

I promise you, my mind is open to persuasion, but I definitely think Tesla is a good investment for at least another year or two. If some serious flaws or competition emerges sooner, then I will drop them like a rock and move on.

 

[ERD50]

A little more info on the Model Y. This is the vehicle that most believe will be the biggest seller for Tesla.

https://www.digitaltrends.com/cars/tesla-model-y-to-share-75-percent-of-its-parts-with-model-3/

Ya gotta believe! But hey, is this deja vu all,over again? From articles when the Model 3 was announced:

https://www.theverge.com/2016/3/31/...3-announced-price-release-date-specs-preorder

. .. Musk is "fairly confident" that deliveries will begin by the end of 2017, and "you will not be able to buy a better car for $35,000, even with no options."...

Hmmm, but you still can't buy a Model 3 for $35,000 either.

... In order for Tesla to sell ten times as many cars as it does now, it needs a much cheaper automobile. That's the Model 3. It's the future of the company. ...

The Model 3 is the culmination of a decade's worth of work. Elon Musk is betting billions on it, and it needs to deliver. The future of Tesla Motors, quite literally, rides on its success. ...

https://qz.com/1041862/tesla-model-3-reviews-are-exuberant-yes-the-hyperbole-is-necessary/

Tesla hopes to enter the hearts—and driveways—of millions of people around the world with the debut of its first mass-market electric vehicle, the Model 3.

Ministry of Truth to Winston: Change all Tesla references from "Model 3" to "Model Y".

-ERD50

 

[bobandsherry]

ERD50, kind of along same train of thought as your post above, take a read through this. First is example of promises, or goals, that Musk made in regards to solar, specifically solar roof. And then follow the path that the author makes in regards to how Tesla has been reducing costs. Interesting... But to take with grain of salt given the source.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4237551-tesla-solar-shenanigans-continue

 

[oneill225]

Joy

Happy customers = happy investors.

https://electrek.co/2019/02/01/tesla-model-3-tops-satisfaction-brings-joy/

 

[NW-Bound]

OK. You broke me down. I am going to get a Tesla.

No, make it one each of the 3 that they make. And that still leaves me with a lot of money after the stock gain in Jan 2019. Gotta blow that dough before the market god takes it all back, I guess.

 

[ERD50]

Happy customers = happy investors.

https://electrek.co/2019/02/01/tesla-model-3-tops-satisfaction-brings-joy/

You should include a snippet, "naked links" are against forum rules:

Consumer Reports released its latest consumer satisfaction survey (Paywall), which it says “measure how happy car buyers are with the car they own.”
It listed the top ten vehicles that they believe “bring their owners the most joy” based on data collected from owners of “more than half a million vehicles.”

Sure, it is a positive for Tesla that Model 3 owners to date, love their cars. Yeah Tesla!

But "Happy customers = happy investors." is a stretch. The market is forward looking. If Tesla needs to get lower priced M3s to market soon (as it appears), and if it can't do that at a profit (which is a challenge, to say the least), investors will be sad.

And the future "looking for a $35,000 M3 and were likely counting on a full subsidy customer" is probably not going to be as excitable or as forgiving as those more early adopters who got a full sunsidy. Especially if those new customers run into service issues/delays, like the Norwegians are complaining about.

So we will see.

-ERD50

 

[oneill225]

You should include a snippet, "naked links" are against forum rules:
Sure, it is a positive for Tesla that Model 3 owners to date, love their cars. Yeah Tesla!
But "Happy customers = happy investors." is a stretch. The market is forward looking. If Tesla needs to get lower priced M3s to market soon (as it appears), and if it can't do that at a profit (which is a challenge, to say the least), investors will be sad.
And the future "looking for a $35,000 M3 and were likely counting on a full subsidy customer" is probably not going to be as excitable or as forgiving as those more early adopters who got a full sunsidy. Especially if those new customers run into service issues/delays, like the Norwegians are complaining about.
So we will see. -ERD50

Yes. Time will tell and things can change, but thus far, Tesla is continuing to exceed expectations. I would add that there is no shortage of people pointing out the headwinds facing Tesla and their dislike of Musk as a person and CEO. Despite all of that, Tesla survives and still appears to be years ahead of any potential Tesla killing competition.

I see Tesla as a young Apple or Amazon. Once the cloud of doubters clears, the stock will soar.

 

[aja8888]

Yes. Time will tell and things can change, but thus far, Tesla is continuing to exceed expectations. I would add that there is no shortage of people pointing out the headwinds facing Tesla and their dislike of Musk as a person and CEO. Despite all of that, Tesla survives and still appears to be years ahead of any potential Tesla killing competition.

I see Tesla as a young Apple or Amazon. Once the cloud of doubters clears, the stock will soar.

My bold above. What exactly is exceeding expectations? And who's expectations?

Certainly not production estimates...

Certainly not autopilot features.... (only to be used on the freeway as it can't recognize a traffic light, etc)

Etc, etc, etc...

 

[Ronstar]

Certainly not autopilot features.... (only to be used on the freeway as it can't recognize a traffic light, etc)



Etc, etc, etc...

It seems to me that Tesla could ward off competition in the short term by introducing models without autopilot and other costly gizmos. The people that want a less expensive EV understand that they can’t get options at a lower price point. Tesla should give them a bare bones EV, and now before someone else beats them to the punch.

 

[ERD50]

My bold above. What exactly is exceeding expectations? And who's expectations?

Certainly not production estimates...

Certainly not autopilot features.... (only to be used on the freeway as it can't recognize a traffic light, etc)

Etc, etc, etc...

And certainly not expectations for a $35,000 M3 with full subsidy (like many of those reservation buyers expected).

And not exceeding expectations for service (see my earlier links to the dissatisfied Norwegians).

And not exceeding expectations for Supercharger costs (see my earlier links to the push back and cave on Supercharger price increases). Someone (eroscott post #1701) on this thread said 'filling' at a Supercharger is " At least 1/2 - 1/4 the cost of gas" per mile than a gas vehicle. That expectation is not met.

Fit and finish? We've seen complaints on that. Expectations not met.


I'll say it again. An astute investor should not live in a fantasy land. They should objectively critique their investment. If they want to be a 'fan', buy the product and a T-shirt. Get a Tesla tattoo.

-ERD50

 

[ERD50]

It seems to me that Tesla could ward off competition in the short term by introducing models without autopilot and other costly gizmos. The people that want a less expensive EV understand that they can’t get options at a lower price point. Tesla should give them a bare bones EV, and now before someone else beats them to the punch.

I think you are ignoring the incredible gross margins achieved by charging a customer for "vaporware" and/or "costly gizmos".

-ERD50

 

[aja8888]

It seems to me that Tesla could ward off competition in the short term by introducing models without autopilot and other costly gizmos. The people that want a less expensive EV understand that they can’t get options at a lower price point. Tesla should give them a bare bones EV, and now before someone else beats them to the punch.

I agree on this, but I assume that the "software gizmos" are where the high margin profit is generated.

Same thing with the Big Auto guys. Selling a "basic" bare bones pickup truck? Try finding a new $27,000 Chev Colorado. (I tried, as you can "build" one on GM's website, but can't find one in the dealer stocks.)

 

[kcowan]

There could be 2 main reason IMO..

The exec hired was bad and the company has learned that and is disposing of their bad decision....

The exce hired was good and after taking a look around the company has decided that there is something going on that they do not want to be a part of...

How about
The CFO discovers that he is not in charge of the financial forecast and the CEO insists on his version. Maybe the CEO is becoming erratic too? So he decides to no longer be associated with fake forecasts!

(Been there, done that!)