Thoughts on TESLA

[oneill225]

About ICE cars quickly transitioning to EV's as you stated above, one of the commenters from the EU has a different take on the article:

I don't disagree that it is a money making sham for the EU, but it must be a growing nudge to the non-compliant makers (most of them?) to get producing mass-market EVs. I am sure it is killing them to give Tesla money that could be spent on making their own EVs.

It continues the theme of being way behind Tesla at the very time Tesla is starting to swamp the EU market with cars that the Europeans cannot match in range and performance.

 

[samclem]

It continues the theme of being way behind Tesla ...

Some would say it continues the theme of Tesla getting it's snout deep into available government troughs.

 

[oneill225]

Some would say it continues the theme of Tesla getting it's snout deep into available government troughs.

The troughs would be there with or without Tesla. Regardless, not investing in Tesla because you think they are milking the "system" may cost you the chance to get some of that money back when the stock finally breaks-out.

 

[ERD50]

emph mine:

I just learned that Tesla is being paid hundreds of millions to help EU car makers compliant with emissions standards and to avoid fines. It looks like some kind of carbon offset program:

https://www.engadget.com/2019/04/07/fiat-chrysler-to-pay-tesla-to-avoid-eu-fines/

Another indicator of how far ahead Tesla is in EV tech, manufacturing, and sales. Also, an indicator that the transition from ICE to EV may be faster than the market, alone, would have dictated.

Like our friend Boho, I really don't think you understand how 'the market' works.

'The market' would already know that there are these offsets that are available. It's already built into the stock price.

None of this is a surprise to the market. Did you buy more TSLA this week?

-ERD50

 

[oneill225]

emph mine:
Like our friend Boho, I really don't think you understand how 'the market' works.
'The market' would already know that there are these offsets that are available. It's already built into the stock price.
None of this is a surprise to the market. Did you buy more TSLA this week?
-ERD50

I'm referring to the EV market, not the stock market. That will follow the EV market. I am in Tesla stock for both the long and short-term.

 

[aja8888]

I'm referring to the EV market, not the stock market. That will follow the EV market. I am in Tesla stock for both the long and short-term.

I other words, you are just guessing at which way the stock will go!

 

[oneill225]

I other words, you are just guessing at which way the stock will go!

Last comment on the details of my personal trades, just know that I believe that Tesla stock will be higher in a year than it is now. Some of my Tesla stock will be held as long as I think this prospect is likely to continue; this is my "long-term" investment.

I am also taking advantage of the current volatility to buy a little when there is big drop due to headlines. I then sell as soon as it bounces back a small percentage (over the next few days or weeks); These are my "short-term" investments.

There is more than one way to make money on TSLA stock.

 

[ERD50]

Last comment on the details of my personal trades, just know that I believe that Tesla stock will be higher in a year than it is now. ...

Bookmarked and on my calendar.

For ref, Friday's close was $274.96.

-ERD50

 

[eroscott]

Some would say it continues the theme of Tesla getting it's snout deep into available government troughs.

Tesla Repays Department of Energy Loan Nine Years Early
Only American Car Company to Have Paid Back Government

May 22, 2013
PALO ALTO, Calif.-- Tesla Motors announced that it has paid off the entire loan awarded to the company by the Department of Energy in 2010. In addition to payments made in 2012 and Q1 2013, today’s wire of almost half a billion dollars ($451.8M) repays the full loan facility with interest. Following this payment, Tesla will be the only American car company to have fully repaid the government.

For the first seven years since its founding in 2003, Tesla was funded entirely with private funds, led by Elon Musk. Tesla brought its Roadster sports car to market with a 30% gross margin, designed electric powertrains for Daimler (Mercedes) and had done preliminary design of the Model S all before receiving a government loan.

In 2010, Tesla was awarded a milestone-based loan, requiring matching private capital obtained via public offering, by the DOE as part of the Advanced Technology Vehicle Manufacturing program.

This program was signed into law by President Bush in 2008 and then awarded under the Obama administration in the years that followed.

This program is often confused with the financial bailouts provided to the then bankrupt GM and Chrysler, who were ineligible for the ATVM program, because a requirement of that program was good financial health.

 

[Chuckanut]

Tesla Repays Department of Energy Loan Nine Years Early
Only American Car Company to Have Paid Back Government

May 22, 2013
PALO ALTO, Calif.-- Tesla Motors announced that it has paid off the entire loan awarded to the company by the Department of Energy in 2010. In addition to payments made in 2012 and Q1 2013, today’s wire of almost half a billion dollars ($451.8M) repays the full loan facility with interest. Following this payment, Tesla will be the only American car company to have fully repaid the government.

Tesla needs to learn the car business from GM. Build poor quality cars like my Pontiac. When the company goes bankrupt stick it to the creditors with the help of the Feds.

 

[Ready]

I’m not all that concerned with the drop in sales of the Model 3 because I think there were a lot of logistical issues with international sales. In addition, they haven’t begun shipping their $35K base model yet even though it is available for order. I still see demand being strong for the Model 3 at that price point, even with diminishing tax incentives.

The Model S is another story though. It’s difficult to justify buying a Model S over a Model 3 at this point. The technology in the Model 3 is just better, and the car is significantly less expensive. So unless you absolutely need the larger side of the Model S there is little compelling reason to buy it.

The Model X is also getting long in the tooth, but if you want an electric SUV from Tesla it’s the only option. But the announcement of the Model Y is likely causing people to hold off on placing orders for the Model X at this point, and the car has not been refreshed since it was introduced.

I would imagine most of Tesla’s R&D has been focused on Model 3, which has left little resources available to redesign the S/X models. Until they do I don’t expect sales of either model to rebound significantly.

 

[Breedlove]

Kind of funny and please do not take this wrong . Last weekend we went to the Mecum auction at Reliant over 1000 cars auctioned ...Not one Tesla , now probably several reasons too new , naa several 2017 Corvettes , Bmw's Mercedes and Mustangs. Do you ever think a Tesla will be recognized as an American muscle car , sports car or just a curiousity . Lots of Tesla's are for sale on Craigslist . I know nothing about them .

 

[oneill225]

Kind of funny and please do not take this wrong . Last weekend we went to the Mecum auction at Reliant over 1000 cars auctioned ...Not one Tesla , now probably several reasons too new , naa several 2017 Corvettes , Bmw's Mercedes and Mustangs. Do you ever think a Tesla will be recognized as an American muscle car , sports car or just a curiousity . Lots of Tesla's are for sale on Craigslist . I know nothing about them .

You are tapping into a dynamic that I think is still pervasive in the traditional muscle car crowd. Namely, an underlying resentment over "greenies" trying to tell them what they can/should drive. So, because EVs are promoted as planet friendly ("green"), they are viewed as tools of the enemy. In response, most muscle car fans either ignore or berate EVs.

The irony, of course, is that EVs (Tesla, mostly) are "muscle" cars when it comes to performance. When a sedan can outrun a high performance Mustang, it is impressive. The only real difference is no roaring engines and shifting (things muscle fans like). I think this will slowly change over time, but it is hard to overcome nostalgia.

I think it would benefit the EV industry to emphasize their performance over any "green" benefit. It is a big turn-off to a lot of Americans to be told they are immoral for driving muscle cars and gas guzzlers (rightfully, so). Attempting to shame someone into choosing an EV over ICE is a bad and divisive approach. Let the cars speak for themselves.

 

[Breedlove]

Mustangs are not really fast not even a Bullitt , but they are Ikon's . Every woman has always wanted a Mustang same with Corvettes 175MPH is not that fast when a kid gets a Hyabusa or a Ninja and has a bike that can exceed 180MPH . More fun to drive a slow car fast , then to drive a fast car slow .
Now my opinion worth .2 as in Europe, people that buy American muscle cars enjoy that part of Americana and talking to other people about that . They also enjoy working on their cars and adding something to it . You see on car forums , what have you done to your car today ? I am a member of the NSide Mustang club and I never hear them talking about Tesla's more than a city car to drive around town and look cool . By the way we do have a few Saleem's and Rousch III and by club rules are only allowed to drive 5MPH over the speed limit . . Maybe someday we will see a Tesla in the 24HR of Daytona racing the Mustangs. I had a friend that had Golf Cart dragster EV , he could hit 110 mph in a quarter mile . Much better then my Mustang .

 

[Texas Proud]

You are tapping into a dynamic that I think is still pervasive in the traditional muscle car crowd. Namely, an underlying resentment over "greenies" trying to tell them what they can/should drive. So, because EVs are promoted as planet friendly ("green"), they are viewed as tools of the enemy. In response, most muscle car fans either ignore or berate EVs.

The irony, of course, is that EVs (Tesla, mostly) are "muscle" cars when it comes to performance. When a sedan can outrun a high performance Mustang, it is impressive. The only real difference is no roaring engines and shifting (things muscle fans like). I think this will slowly change over time, but it is hard to overcome nostalgia.

I think it would benefit the EV industry to emphasize their performance over any "green" benefit. It is a big turn-off to a lot of Americans to be told they are immoral for driving muscle cars and gas guzzlers (rightfully, so). Attempting to shame someone into choosing an EV over ICE is a bad and divisive approach. Let the cars speak for themselves.

Except that most EVs are not even close to Tesla on acceleration.... I also do not know how quick they are if you do not buy their ludicrous mode... which I have read is an additional $5,000.... I am sure it is quick, but maybe not drag racing quick...


Now, some of the newer ones I have seen mentioned will probably be up there... Jag, Mercedes etc... but the Bolt and Leaf just do not do it...

 

[Breedlove]

Checked some Vids and Teslas are not really that ( Fast ) at the dragstrip . Now quick hell yes . Seen some Vids of Teslas on 1/8th mile strips they win always . But here is an old Mustang GT , a very common car . He is hitting his rev limiter so he is somewhat cut back . If he didn't have the RL he could have beat the Tesla in this Vid by 2.5 secs.

 

[eroscott]

Except that most EVs are not even close to Tesla on acceleration.... I also do not know how quick they are if you do not buy their ludicrous mode... which I have read is an additional $5,000.... I am sure it is quick, but maybe not drag racing quick...


Now, some of the newer ones I have seen mentioned will probably be up there... Jag, Mercedes etc... but the Bolt and Leaf just do not do it...

The Volt, Bolt, and LEAF are surprisingly quick up to 40 and *really* decent from like 20-50 (suburb driving).

Even without ludicrous mode all models are quick.

 

[eroscott]

Checked some Vids and Teslas are not really that ( Fast ) at the dragstrip . Now quick hell yes . Seen some Vids of Teslas on 1/8th mile strips they win always . But here is an old Mustang GT , a very common car . He is hitting his rev limiter so he is somewhat cut back . If he didn't have the RL he could have beat the Tesla in this Vid by 2.5 secs.

Varies a lot by model.

Dragtimes has quite a few Tesla racing cars:
https://www.youtube.com/user/DragTimes/search?query=tesla+drag

Example (2s in 0-60s!):

 

[oneill225]

Checked some Vids and Teslas are not really that ( Fast ) at the dragstrip . Now quick hell yes . Seen some Vids of Teslas on 1/8th mile strips they win always . But here is an old Mustang GT , a very common car . He is hitting his rev limiter so he is somewhat cut back . If he didn't have the RL he could have beat the Tesla in this Vid by 2.5 secs.

Last time I checked 0-60 is a premier benchmark and this isn't even Tesla's highest performance vehicle; it is a four door sedan. The Roadster will smoke almost any super/muscle car when it is available next year.

https://www.carthrottle.com/post/the-2020-tesla-roadster-will-do-0-60mph-in-19sec-14-mile-in-88/

Very tough to beat instant torque of an electric motor. 1/4 mile times will be the next to fall.

Edit: The Model 3 is not even Tesla's fastest production sedan. That title goes to the Model S with a 2.28 second 0-60 and 10.44 second 1/4 mile time. Which is faster? EVs are going to crush ICE performance without much effort.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_fastest_production_cars_by_acceleration

 

[aja8888]

I asked my 39 year old daughter this weekend if she would drive a Tesla instead of her 2014 Mustang Premium Edition. Her answer was "Why....I'd have to pay for electricity, wouldn't I?....And it's not as cool as my beautiful Mustang!"

She's had three Mustangs; a 1989 GT convertible (25th year anniversary edition), a 2007 V6 convertible and this 2014 Premium Edition. All very reliable, and beautiful cars.

For you fanboys, believe it or not, not all young people have much of an interest in EV's. I know this is something unthinkable to all of you, but it's a fact. Except for quick acceleration, not much else in the EV platform is attractive from a buyer's perspective, especially when facing charging setup/cost/search out vs.fuel stations.

Until the novelty and extreme cost to purchase and repair out of warranty wears off, and other competition is firmly established with EV's, including having a dealer/parts network, Tesla's will not be mainstream in America. Actually, they (Tesla) may never be a big player once the larger, established auto manufacturers roll out their EV lineups in the next year or so.

 

[Totoro]

Not disagreeing with the second part, but

Except for quick acceleration, not much else in the EV platform is attractive from a buyer's perspective

I'm not on board with.

The EV has more going for it: lower maintenance, quieter, more room, less environmental guilt, never having to get out at a gasstation again. All five appeal to some degree, and have different audiences.

functional low mileage buyers trigger on the first one (DM), sensitive to sound people the second (I'm one of those), families on the third (e.g. my siblings) and the fourth one is another demographic (some of my urbanite friends). The last one is a selling point for convenience buyers (me again) and some (most female) demographics concerned about safety.

 

[ERD50]

The EV has more going for it: lower maintenance, ...

Can you back that up? It gets repeated, based on the relative simplicity of an electric motor versus an ICE plus transmission. But I'm not convinced it holds up in real life. ICE are very reliable these days. And as far as Tesla, you mostly need to get service from them, rather than my trusty mechanic that I've taken every make of car in our family for years - so I suspect costs will actually be higher. You still have the rest of the car to maintain, and the battery cooling system needs coolant replacement, just like an old ICE (though some now have lifetime coolant).

To have to stop for one oil change every other year that it doesn't line up with a tire rotation is hardly significant (the other alternate years, I get the oil change done with the tire rotation, pretty much a non-event).

Someone linked to this a while back, I haven't reviewed it a while, but here ya go:

https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/what-what-850-for-annual-service.128783/

"What, what!? $850 for annual service!?"

The EV has more going for it: ... less environmental guilt, ...

Clever phrasing They are not clearly better for the environment, but if driving one makes you feel less environmental guilt, well, I guess that's all some people care about.

-ERD50

 

[aja8888]

The EV has more going for it: lower maintenance, quieter, more room, less environmental guilt, never having to get out at a gasstation again. All five appeal to some degree, and have different audiences.

I'm sorry, but I'm not agreeing with the "lower maintenance" aspect. Today's ICE vehicles are very low maintenance with only low cost fluid and filter changes for the first 100K miles. Both EV's and ICE vehicles share the same platform common items like brakes, axles, body parts, hinges, switches, window controllers, etc. and all those systems will wear out over time and maybe even fail.

Quietness, room, "environmental guilt(??), refueling (what? you do have to charge the ev's, right?) are very subjective and not always seen as a benefit to the owner. As a matter of fact, my BMW is so quiet I can't hear the engine running after it's started.

 

[aja8888]

Clever phrasing They are not clearly better for the environment, but if driving one makes you feel less environmental guilt, well, I guess that's all some people care about.

-ERD50

I imagine if I bought a $60 - $110K car with no dealer network and with limited parts availability, I would have to feel good about something intangible.

 

[oneill225]

I'm sorry, but I'm not agreeing with the "lower maintenance" aspect. Today's ICE vehicles are very low maintenance with only low cost fluid and filter changes for the first 100K miles. Both EV's and ICE vehicles share the same platform common items like brakes, axles, body parts, hinges, switches, window controllers, etc. and all those systems will wear out over time and maybe even fail.
Quietness, room, "environmental guilt(??), refueling (what? you do have to charge the ev's, right?) are very subjective and not always seen as a benefit to the owner. As a matter of fact, my BMW is so quiet I can't hear the engine running after it's started.

You can downplay the improvements and benefits of electric over ICE, but they are all real. Sitting in bumper to bumper traffic with a loud diesel spewing exhaust into my car is demonstrably not better than sitting in near silence (except for my sound system) and breathing clean air. No "guilt" required to recognize these simple facts, just a lack of denial.

Maintenance should be lower with an EV. For example, aside from oil changes, EVs use regenerative braking which can extend brake-life to the life of the vehicle.

https://www.engineering.com/Electro...eID/17625/How-Regenerative-Braking-Works.aspx

The complexity of an ICE far outweighs that of an electric motor, so even though they are well engineered, they will likely wear out and fail before an electric motor will.

I believe Tesla has dropped the "required" scheduled maintenance:

https://www.engadget.com/2019/03/22/tesla-annual-servicing-now-as-needed/