Thoughts on TESLA

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"Now Wall Street finds Tesla sales are not adding up as hoped this year. Morgan Stanley is forecasting 344,000, below the low end of Tesla’s last predicted range. An obvious culprit is the dwindling U.S. tax rebate to buyers. The handout, once $7,500, has been cut in half and will soon fall to $1,875. It turns out economics applies after all.

[mod edit to ensure copyright compliance. See here http://www.early-retirement.org/forums/f32/copyright-the-dmca-and-cut-and-paste-62748.html] ]

https://www.wsj.com/articles/get-ready-for-a-pileup-tesla-11554851747
 
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On the Freeze on build out of the Gigafactory Tesla and Panasonic have different takes, Tesla thinks it shows what great efficiency gains have been derived from the present space, Panasonic says it is too risky to devote capital to TESLA and will not provide batteries to the Shanghai facility:
"Furthermore, Nikkei also reports that Panasonic is also suspending investments in Tesla’s new Shanghai Gigafactory:

“Panasonic will also suspend its planned investment in Tesla’s integrated automotive battery and EV plant in Shanghai. Instead, it will provide technical support and a small number of batteries from the Gigafactory. Tesla is committed to buying batteries for the cars built at the Shanghai factory from a number of makers."

This is also quoted by Tesla as a good thing as this gives other battery manufacturers a chance to work with TESLA.
 
Running_Man said:
https://twitter.com/x/status/1116095333497327617

I like the fact that because the TESLA sales center had been closed down someone who purchased a Model S was asked to take delivery at Mc Donalds yesterday. I think he was kinda fried.
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Must met at McDonald's because that's where the sales rep works for their real job. [emoji847] I wonder if they asked the biyer if he'd like fries with that Model S.
 
gerntz said:
"Now Wall Street finds Tesla sales are not adding up as hoped this year. Morgan Stanley is forecasting 344,000, below the low end of Tesla’s last predicted range. An obvious culprit is the dwindling U.S. tax rebate to buyers. The handout, once $7,500, has been cut in half and will soon fall to $1,875. It turns out economics applies after all.

[mod edit to ensure copyright compliance. See here http://www.early-retirement.org/forums/f32/copyright-the-dmca-and-cut-and-paste-62748.html] ]

https://www.wsj.com/articles/get-ready-for-a-pileup-tesla-11554851747
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The rest of the quote that was removed pointed out that a multitude of long-term ICE car makers are coming onto the EV market now & selling their cars at about $12K below cost to comply with regulations & can afford that but that Tesla can't because it has no ICE business to offset EV losses. Tesla can't make the EV's substantially cheaper, if at all, than these other companies can. They will get the full $7500 handout for a while too.
 
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/04/11/tesla-and-panasonic-reportedly-freeze-spending-on-4point5b-gigafactory.html

So here is a story on the solar roof, in it MUSK states already installed on hundreds of roofs, number is confirmed in story as 12, CNBC asks why difference, and TESLA state hundreds includes roofs planned or partially started. At 100k for a roof and 36K for TESLA powerwall that would store one day's electricity, the 136K investment saves 400 a month, a 3.5 percent savings annually, just below the cost of the mortgage on the investment by about .75 percent leading to additional annual costs of $1,000 per year over staying on the grid.
 
Running_Man said:
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/04/11/tesla-and-panasonic-reportedly-freeze-spending-on-4point5b-gigafactory.html

So here is a story on the solar roof, in it MUSK states already installed on hundreds of roofs, number is confirmed in story as 12, CNBC asks why difference, and TESLA state hundreds includes roofs planned or partially started. At 100k for a roof and 36K for TESLA powerwall that would store one day's electricity, the 136K investment saves 400 a month, a 3.5 percent savings annually, just below the cost of the mortgage on the investment by about .75 percent leading to additional annual costs of $1,000 per year over staying on the grid.
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One thing to consider is if these were installed as new roofs, then you have offset of the cost of the initial roof. And then also factor in further offset in the cost to install the clunky panels on that roof. And then you'd still be without any battery back-up so you still remain dependent on the grid, or add back the cost of the Powerwall. That would make the math make more financial sense. My tile roof is just 3 years old so it would be hard to justify laying out that expense.

You have to say (or at least I would) it does look great on the roof compared to the clunky panels.

Gonna guess that Tesla's estimate of 100's of roof waiting installation are deposits they've taken and no where near ready for scheduling. But hey, you got to say some creative after paying $2.6 billion to acquire Solar City (and that in itself is a story to be read).
 
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Interesting, auto Dogs/Dinosaurs GM and F are both significantly out performing TSLA for past 3 months. GM and F up 6% while TSLA down 22%. And on top of that F is also paying a hefty dividend of 6.4% and GM 3.8%. Screenshot_20190411-103504__01.jpg
 
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bobandsherry said:
Interesting, auto Dogs/Dinosaurs GM and F are both significantly out performing TSLA for past 3 months. GM and F up 6% while TSLA down 22%. And on top of that F is also paying a hefty dividend of 6.4% and GM 3.8%.View attachment 31183
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Maybe since GM is doing so well it will pay back the bond holders who got shafted when the Feds bailed out GM. It’s easy to do well when you can borrow money and pay back less than 10% on the dollar.
 
Chuckanut said:
Maybe since GM is doing so well it will pay back the bond holders who got shafted when the Feds bailed out GM. It’s easy to do well when you can borrow money and pay back less than 10% on the dollar.
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If you are going to drag GM down, then be sure to give props to Ford for not going the bankruptcy route. They are paying the price for that, but sometimes you can't put a price on maintaining your pride and being responsible.
 
eroscott said:
Many people including me think that just helps the laggards who held back while other companies pushed the EV market forward with genuine efforts in making and selling.
...
Look at the laggards in 2018 selling just a few thousand for the entire YEAR -- https://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/
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Laggards below. Saw this nice sortable table by manuf. in an article today.

96gwPbQ.jpg

Via: https://www.freep.com/story/news/lo...ctric-car-tax-credit-2019-federal/3422657002/
 
bobandsherry said:
Read this story this morning. Make your own inference, but stock down pre-market $10 or over 3.5%, so with investor eye that's not good.

The article opens with...
Code: 
Tesla and*Panasonic*are freezing plans to expand the capacity of their Gigafactory 1, the world's largest EV battery plant, as concerns mount on Wall Street about weakening demand at Elon Musk's car company.
https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Companies/Tesla-and-Panasonic-freeze-spending-on-4.5bn-Gigafactory
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Yeah, this is concerning. The fundamental question for Tesla stock as an investment is what demand is really going to look like long-term. Demand dropped substantially from Q4 of last year to Q1 of this year. Is that a blip or the start of a new downward trend?


Will the initial boost to demand from entering new markets be more or less than the decline in markets where the initial pent-up demand has been met?
 
Hamlet said:
Demand dropped substantially from Q4 of last year to Q1 of this year. Is that a blip or the start of a new downward trend?
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By cutting it's investment Panasonic seems to feel this is more than a momentary blip on the radar.
 
eroscott said:
Many people including me think that just helps the laggards who held back while other companies pushed the EV market forward with genuine efforts in making and selling.

Better would be like set it to 1.5 million in *total* and once that is hit then NO manufacturers buyers get tax credits. Look at the laggards in 2018 selling just a few thousand for the entire YEAR -- https://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/
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I'm all for stopping all credits now. It's mainly a giveaway to the better off among us.
 
As one looks at growth opportunities in China, may be a harder nut to crack with other China based companies. This one caught my eye.

Code: 
Geely, a Chinese automotive giant with global aim when it comes to electric vehicles, has now launched Geometry, a new global all-electric vehicle brand, and unveiled its first vehicle: Geometry A, an all-electric “high-end sedan”.

Code: 
Between all its brands, Geely sold over 2.15 million vehicles in 2018 – making it one of the most important Chinese automakers.

https://electrek.co/2019/04/11/geely-electric-brand-geometry/

Gotta say I prefer this look vs Model 3. But looks like not option here for some time, if ever. Geometry-A-09.jpg
 
gerntz said:
I'm all for stopping all credits now. It's mainly a giveaway to the better off among us.
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That might be true in the main, but it was a very big factor in my decision to buy a PHEV last year. So the usual explanation, that it was an incentive for people to buy these things, most definitely applied in my case.
 
braumeister said:
Why do you keep using the CODE tags? There is a perfectly functional quote feature and it looks so much better.
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Because TapaTalk app I use to view forums on my phone has a shortcut to paste as BBcode for "code" and doesn't have it for "quote". Not wasting time to manually type in the code for quote when it essentially does the same thing. So let me ask does it matter which I use?
 
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gerntz said:
I'm all for stopping all credits now. It's mainly a giveaway to the better off among us.
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The tax credits are to encourage you to buy EV's. There will be more incentives to purchase an EV in the future, as well as penalties for using ICE vehicles, such as higher gas taxes.

The government is not concerned with the issue of being better off, but with eliminating ICE vehicles.
 
Europe has been mentioned as next growth opportunity for Tesla, this article gives a differing perspective on that.

____________________________

Tesla: It Can Get Worse

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4253995-tesla-can-get-worse

Code: 
Take a look at Norway, Tesla's most important market in Europe, for instance. If we look at*registration data there, sales of the Model S and X combined were down more than 800 units in Q1 2019 over the prior year period, a drop of nearly 47%. We are now 10 days into April, and the numbers are only getting worse. So far, just 44 units of the S/X have been registered, a more than 78% decline over the same time period from last year.

Code: 
Unfortunately, that's not the worst news for Tesla at this point. After a key tax break expired in The Netherlands at the end of last year, sales have completely fallen off a cliff. As the chart below shows, that country's registrations were down more than 95% in Q1, and the year-over-year comparisons get even tougher as we move throughout the year.
 
Mr. Tightwad said:
...There will be more incentives to purchase an EV in the future, as well as penalties for using ICE vehicles, such as higher gas taxes.
...
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We don't know that. As of today, some are phasing out (hitting the 200,000 unit limit).


Mr. Tightwad said:
... The government is not concerned with the issue of being better off, but with eliminating ICE vehicles.
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They are? Why would they want to do that?

-ERD50
 
ERD50 said:
They are? Why would they want to do that?

-ERD50
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The government is not concerned with the issue of being better off, but with eliminating ICE vehicles.
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I would guess that the Fed Gov is not interested in collecting $$Billons$$ in fuel sales taxes?

I'm pretty sure the states would want to collect the fuel sales taxes though.
 
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