Stock Picking (Beat Boho) Contest - V2.0

[Boho]

Earlier I saw two articles, one emphasizing that there's a significant difference between total market funds and S&P 500 funds and the other saying a .74% quarterly return difference (8.8% over three years) isn't significant. I chose not to post them but I will say that annual percent difference compared with the S&P 500 is what most people would care about. Last I checked that difference was under 1% and I gained in the thousands more than the S&P since then.

 

[SecondCor521]

Earlier I saw two articles, one emphasizing that there's a significant difference between total market funds and S&P 500 funds and the other saying a .74% quarterly return difference (8.8% over three years) isn't significant. I chose not to post them but I will say that annual percent difference compared with the S&P 500 is what most people would care about. Last I checked that difference was under 1% and I gained in the thousands more than the S&P since then.

<re-plonk>

Good luck, everyone else.

 

[pb4uski]

Earlier I saw two articles, one emphasizing that there's a significant difference between total market funds and S&P 500 funds and the other saying a .74% quarterly return difference (8.8% over three years) isn't significant. I chose not to post them but I will say that annual percent difference compared with the S&P 500 is what most people would care about. Last I checked that difference was under 1% and I gained in the thousands more than the S&P since then.

Quit making excuses... you got spanked.... man up and admit it.

 

[ERD50]

This sounds like a good book. "The importance of trends cannot be overlooked."

... I gained in the thousands more than the S&P since then.

Importance of trends? And yet, you choose to ignore the trend from the start of the contest. I'd guess the book would say all trends are important, not just the ones you like.

We've come full circle: from "H-o-c-omania" to "Bohomania".

I imagine that went over a lot of heads here I was only somewhat aware, I think he was gone by the time I started here, but there were more references to him at the time. I do recall trying to slog through one of his posts or blogs or something... Yeah, way out there, from what I recall.

-ERD50

 

[Boho]

In my quest to determine a sort of margin of error/significance I researched what's considered "flat" when comparing a stock's performance in one quarter with the previous quarter. I found this:

At a headline level, Revenue exceeded by about $30M the forecast established by the previous trend of 1.5% revenue decline per quarter. This revenue decline is less than 0.1% per quarter ($2M relative to a $2,126M base for Q3), significantly better than expected and well outside a range that would represent simple variability in results. Indeed, a difference of $2M out of $2,126M might be considered flat by many and is by this analyst.

So, .1% x 4 quarters = margin of flatness for a year (.4%), That makes the margin of flatness for a three year contest 1.2%.

 

[pb4uski]

In my quest to determine a sort of margin of error/significance I researched what's considered "flat" when comparing a stock's performance in one quarter with the previous quarter. I found this:



So, .1% x 4 quarters = margin of flatness for a year (.4%), That makes the margin of flatness for a three year contest 1.2%.

First, I agree with the author that 0.1% difference is flat.

But..... you're only 1 1/2 years/6 quarters into the contest.... so even under your definition of flat you should only be behind by 0.6% (6 quarters * 0.1%/quarter).

At Sept 30, you are behind by 3.1%.... (your $1,282,084/ VFIAX $1,322,882)-1..... NOT 0.6%.... so you're not anywhere near to flat... your getting spanked by the S&P 500 index fund.

Math is hard.

 

[REWahoo]

So, .1% x 4 quarters = margin of flatness for a year (.4%), That makes the margin of flatness for a three year contest 1.2%.

^ Another example of Bohomania.

 

[Boho]

First, I agree with the author that 0.1% difference is flat.

But..... you're only 1 1/2 years/6 quarters into the contest

2-1/2 years, and I know I'm not within the margin of flatness yet...at least I wasn't last I checked...I may be now but probably not.

 

[pb4uski]

First, I agree with the author that 0.1% difference is flat.

But..... you're only 1 1/2 years/6 quarters into the contest.... so even under your definition of flat you should only be behind by 0.6% (6 quarters * 0.1%/quarter).

At Sept 30, you are behind by 3.1%.... (your $1,282,084/ VFIAX $1,322,882)-1..... NOT 0.6%.... so you're not anywhere near to flat... your getting spanked by the S&P 500 index fund.

Math is hard.

2-1/2 years, and I know I'm not within the margin of flatness yet...at least I wasn't last I checked...I may be now but probably not.

You are correct... my mistake... 2 1/2 years would be 10 quarters or 1.0% and you're behind 3.1% rather than 1.0%... still getting spanked.

 

[ERD50]

"margin of error/significance" "margin of flatness"?

What the heck are you going on about now?

First the contest was against all comers "Beat Boho". Then it morphed in beating the market. Then you're fixated on VOO versus VTI, versus?? And now you want to define a "margin of error"?

There is no "margin of error". A winner is a winner, a loser is a loser.

If Boho fails to outperform the market, I predict he will say he was trolling us the whole time.

-ERD50

 

[Boho]

Using this for the adjusted close of SPY for Aug. 12 it says $286.75. An index investor at the start of the contest who went all in on SPY would have had 4432 shares (based on a previous post where I calculated that). $286.75 x 4432 = $1,270,876. So:

SPY investor: $1,270,876
Boho: $1,295,052.49

I have $10,825.71 cash and the rest in S&P 500 funds. On Monday I could lock in this win by buying more SPY.

That gain over the S&P would buy me a 2020 Subaru Legacy.

 

[pb4uski]

^^^^ [-]Cherry picker[/-]Bozo

 

[jimbee]

"In the field of psychology, the Dunning–Kruger effect is a cognitive bias in which people mistakenly assess their cognitive ability as greater than it is. It is related to the cognitive bias of illusory superiority and comes from the inability of people to recognize their lack of ability. Without the self-awareness of metacognition, people cannot objectively evaluate their competence or incompetence."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect

 

[pb4uski]

^^^^ Anyone we know?

 

[ERD50]

"In the field of psychology, the Dunning–Kruger effect is a cognitive bias in which people mistakenly assess their cognitive ability as greater than it is. It is related to the cognitive bias of illusory superiority and comes from the inability of people to recognize their lack of ability. Without the self-awareness of metacognition, people cannot objectively evaluate their competence or incompetence."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect

That seems to be an appropriate observation.

^^^^ [-]Cherry picker[/-]Bozo

As does that!

Using this for the adjusted close of SPY for Aug. 12 it says $286.75. An index investor at the start of the contest who went all in on SPY would have had 4432 shares (based on a previous post where I calculated that). $286.75 x 4432 = $1,270,876. So:

SPY investor: $1,270,876
Boho: $1,295,052.49

I have $10,825.71 cash and the rest in S&P 500 funds. On Monday I could lock in this win by buying more SPY.

That gain over the S&P would buy me a 2020 Subaru Legacy.

Geez Boho. If you are going to post and brag in bold and large sized fonts, get your math right.

First off, cherry-picking dates that you might have been ahead are meaningless, and you should know that. How many time frames could we pick when you are behind? But nobody does that, because it is meaningless. You are losing, per your own rules. Own up, and stop making a fool of yourself in public.

Second, WTH does Aug 12th have to do with it? Looks like you are comparing your current portfolio with SPY on Aug 12th? So adj SPY was $286.75 in your calculation, but it is now $296.28. If your 4432 share number is correct, that means that a SPY account is now $1,313,113.

So let's review:

SPY investor: $1,313,113
Boho: $1,295,052.49 <<< LOSER!!!!!

I'm not sure about the "2020 Subaru Legacy index", but that puts you about $18,030.51 behind in that widely accepted thing called "US dollars".

Am I allowed a here?

edit - that's 'loser' not 'looser', though I guess I could wiggle and say he was 'looser' with the facts?


-ERD50

 

[ERD50]

... On Monday I could lock in this win by buying more SPY. ....

I think you mean lock in your loss?

Even if you did go to SPY on a gain, it would be an admission that you can't reliably trade and do better than the market. If you could, you'd keep building upon your winnings (if you had any that is).

I'm betting more heavily on the troll admission after he loses at the end of the contest. Kind of like that TV show, where it was all a dream.

-ERD50

 

[Boho]

Second, WTH does Aug 12th have to do with it?

Oh, I didn't notice that. I used a previous link that I posted and I thought it went up to the current date.

Got you to do math though.

 

[Boho]

I think you mean lock in your loss?

Even if you did go to SPY on a gain, it would be an admission that you can't reliably trade and do better than the market. If you could, you'd keep building upon your winnings (if you had any that is).

That's fair. I'll keep trading to the end. I just need one winning trade per week while maintaining my current win/loss record. Down to 4/month from 30/month. I could be more selective.

 

[ERD50]

Oh, I didn't notice that. I used a previous link that I posted and I thought it went up to the current date. ... .

And I didn't trust your funky 4332 (edit/update - typo, that was 4432 shares, but the calcs are done on Boho's funky 4432 share number anyhow) shares either.

So if you do it right, and consistent and take the March 29, 2017 adj close, you get:

1000000 ⋅ (296.28 ∕ 224.59)
≈ 1319203.9

So it's even worse for you. I think deserves BOLD:

SPY investor: $1,319,203.90
Boho: $1,295,052.49 <<< BIGGER LOSER!!!!!

Oh, I didn't notice that. I used a previous link that I posted and I thought it went up to the current date. ...

I suspect you are just as careful with your trades.

... Got you to do math though.

So do I get a Suburu? You could take out a loan.

Troll.

(Aw heck, I used 'looser' in place of 'loser', better edit that before I get slapped! )

-ERD50

 

[Boho]

And I didn't trust your funky 4332 shares either.

I said 4432. And I explained how I did everything. I'm not sure what you did with your fancy math. I have to look into it.

 

[ERD50]

I said 4432. And I explained how I did everything. I'm not sure what you did with your fancy math. I have to look into it.

Sorry, my 4332 shares was a typo, I used your 4432 in my calcs, so it doesn't change any of the numbers that I posted. Though the 4432 appears to be funky anyhow. Stick with 'adj close', unless you can point out an actual error in it.

See how easy it is to own up to a mistake?

-ERD50

 

[Boho]

08-12-2019

march 29, 2017 spy adjusted closing price: 225.63
1,000,000 / 225.63 = 4,432 shares...

sounds right.

Anyway, here's some additional info based by ERD50's calculations.

SPY investor: $1,319,203.90
Boho: $1,295,052.49 <<< BIGGER LOSER!!!!!

That's a 1.84767% difference.
Per month % difference: 1.84767% / 30.5 months = 0.06057934426%
[-]Per quarter % difference: 0.06057934426% x 4 = 0.24231737704%[/-]
Per year % difference: 0.06057934426% x 12 = 0.72695213112%

Edit: per quarter % difference: 0.06057934426% x 3 = .18173803278

 

[Boho]

OK, I don't know how the adjusted close works.

In August when I looked up SPY, date range Mar 29, 2017 - Aug. 12, 2019 it said:
"March 29, 2017...adjusted closing price: 225.63"

Today, for date range Mar 29, 2017 - Oct 12, 2019 , it says:
"March 29, 2017...adjusted closing price: 224.59"

March 29, 2017 was the first date in the range. I figured anything having an impact on it must have occurred earlier, not later. Like, you buy, and later you reinvest a dividend, then after the buy date there's an adjustment because you own more shares than you started with. I don't understand the adjustment to the day-1 closing price that happens months later.

There needs to be a concise tutorial on this. I should have seen one by now somewhere.

 

[pb4uski]

You might be better off to just use M*

https://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/vfinx/performance

then click on Show Interactive Chart and put in your dates.

Using Mar 29 2017, $10,000 of VFINX would have grown by $3,205.12.... to $13,205.... so $1m would have grown to $1,320,512 as of Sep 30 2019

P.S. You're still getting spanked by the index fund

 

[ERD50]

OK, I don't know how the adjusted close works.

In August when I looked up SPY, date range Mar 29, 2017 - Aug. 12, 2019 it said:
"March 29, 2017...adjusted closing price: 225.63"

Today, for date range Mar 29, 2017 - Oct 12, 2019 , it says:
"March 29, 2017...adjusted closing price: 224.59"

March 29, 2017 was the first date in the range. I figured anything having an impact on it must have occurred earlier, not later. Like, you buy, and later you reinvest a dividend, then after the buy date there's an adjustment because you own more shares than you started with. I don't understand the adjustment to the day-1 closing price that happens months later.

There needs to be a concise tutorial on this. I should have seen one by now somewhere.

It's not difficult if you just apply some thought to it.

It's a backwards look from today. That has an advantage over adjusting today's price based on a previous date. If you were to adjust today's price, you need to do another run for every starting date you want to check. When you do it as Yahoo! does, you run the end date, and the adjustment for every previous date is in one table.

The adjusted price for March 29, 2017 changed between Aug. 12, 2019 and Oct 12, 2019 because a dividend was paid between those two dates.

Sep 20, 2019 1.384 Dividend

So they have to be different, right? Because the end price is fixed, the starting price must change.

They don't add exactly, because there were price changes in SPY on those re-invested divs - they didn't just sit in cash.

Understand?

You're still behind the market.

-ERD50