Coronavirus - Health and preparedness aspects - II

[audreyh1]

At our church's council meeting about three weeks ago, DW (the pastor) suggested that the church buy enough hand sanitizer to put in each of the pews. This was while it was still cheap and easily available.

The council shot it down.

Now they have serious regrets. Though DW did still buy about a dozen bottles out of her own pocket anyway, just not enough to cover all the pews. We have enough for now, but who knows how long this will go on?

I expect people will be asked not to go to church.

 

[ziggy29]

I expect people will be asked not to go to church.

It may come to that, especially since probably 95% of our attendees are over 60, and more than half are probably 75 or older.

At 54 and 51, we are sometimes the youngest in attendance.

 

[TromboneAl]

At our church's council meeting about three weeks ago, DW (the pastor) suggested that the church buy enough hand sanitizer to put in each of the pews. This was while it was still cheap and easily available.

The council shot it down.

Now they have serious regrets.

They probably would have been stolen by now anyway.

 

[Teacher Terry]

It’s now in Vegas and Reno. The Reno case is from a Princess Cruise. The Vegas one did not travel.

 

[copyright1997reloaded]

It may come to that, especially since probably 95% of our attendees are over 60, and more than half are probably 75 or older.

At 54 and 51, we are sometimes the youngest in attendance.

Time to set them up with zoom or some other virtual meeting software.

 

[ziggy29]

Time to set them up with zoom or some other virtual meeting software.

The greatest hurdle would be that we could only use hymns in the public domain. We'd be in violation of copyright licenses to stream a service with hymns that are still under copyright.

And, although I hate to emphasize the financial or things like paying DW's salary when compared to concerns about everyone's health, maybe it's time they actually embrace online/electronic giving, too. She's wanted to pursue that for a while, but the reaction has been lukewarm. Maybe this is really a time to push going "all in" to the 21st century?

 

[harllee]

My mother, nearly 90, lives in an independent living apartment in a Continuing Care Community in the middle of North Carolina. She gets some meals included but it has been suggested that all residents have at least 2 weeks supply of food and other necessities. So I went to see her yesterday and took her shopping at the local Walmart. This was on a Thursday in the middle of the day. The place was a zoo--tons of people, long lines, many shelves empty. Mother wanted some canned soup--hardly any soup left! But we did find some toilet paper.

I am very concerned for my mother but she has a great attitude and said if it is her time it's her time.

 

[TromboneAl]

I took one for the team and tried this for lunch:

I thought it was ... okay but not great. Better with some hot-sweet mustard.

Lena said, "Um ... oo, yuck ... it has an off taste, like chemical," and then she spit out her bite into the garbage.

 

[nwsteve]

Perspective

As a point of perspective:
If you were to hear of a new virus that in five months causes in only the USA:
34,000,000 – 49,000,000 illnesses
16,000,000 – 23,000,000 medical visits
350,000 – 620,000 medical stays
20,000 – 52,000 deaths

How would you view the current virus?
.
The above are CDC preliminary statistics for Flu in US only from Oct 1, 2019-Feb 29, 2020
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm

 

[timo2]

Has anyone seen anything definitive on Asthma being a risk group with COVID-19?

I've been reading everything I can online about travel and age groups. Because my sister is going to fly at the end of the month from Florida to Missouri. But she is over 60 and has Asthma. Over 60 is clearly a risk group, but I can't find if Asthma is. And inhalers suppress the immune system. But the USA medical groups and CDC don't consider Asthma a particularly high risk, but the WHO does.

 

[NW-Bound]

Can't do that because that was the plot of my first fiction book (Contact Us) in which the alien culled 70% of the human population.

Dang!

And then, the virus came and hit the remaining 30% of earth population. How many people are left then?

When the 3rd and final cataclysm came in the form of an asteroid, what's left of civilization, other than a bunch of cavemen?

 

[Sojourner]

Here is something that's been puzzling me. I've read that Covid-19 is transmitted primarily through direct contact with someone who's infected, and that this happens when they cough, sneeze, or otherwise transfer virus-infused droplets of moisture from them to you. The key (from what I've read and heard) is that the virus lives in these tiny droplets and that it dies soon after the droplets evaporate due to prolonged exposure to a dry environment outside the body. All that makes sense.

So then, why have I also been reading reports (some in this very thread, I believe) that say the virus can live for up to 9 days outside the body, on surfaces that have been "infected" by someone nearby sneezing, coughing, etc.? Seems like such tiny droplets of moisture would completely evaporate within no more than a few hours on just about any surface, except for things like a damp cloth or in other high-humidity environments (e.g. a greenhouse).

All this leads me to wonder whether I should be concerned about things like my cellphone, my clothes, and other surfaces that could be indirectly exposed to these virus-filled droplets when I'm out and about. Could you actually get infected by touching your phone and then your nose 12 hours, or 24 hours, or even days after being out at the grocery store with it? If so, then I'm really not understanding the subtleties of the transmission dynamics of this virus (or any influenza, for that matter).

 

[EveryLady]

Here is something that's been puzzling me. I've read that Covid-19 is transmitted primarily through direct contact with someone who's infected, and that this happens when they cough, sneeze, or otherwise transfer virus-infused droplets of moisture from them to you. The key (from what I've read and heard) is that the virus lives in these tiny droplets and that it dies soon after the droplets evaporate due to prolonged exposure to a dry environment outside the body. All that makes sense.

So then, why have I also been reading reports (some in this very thread, I believe) that say the virus can live for up to 9 days outside the body, on surfaces that have been "infected" by someone nearby sneezing, coughing, etc.? Seems like such tiny droplets of moisture would completely evaporate within no more than a few hours on just about any surface, except for things like a damp cloth or in other high-humidity environments (e.g. a greenhouse).

All this leads me to wonder whether I should be concerned about things like my cellphone, my clothes, and other surfaces that could be indirectly exposed to these virus-filled droplets when I'm out and about. Could you actually get infected by touching your phone and then your nose 12 hours, or 24 hours, or even days after being out at the grocery store with it? If so, then I'm really not understanding the subtleties of the transmission dynamics of this virus (or any influenza, for that matter).

From general reading (with no particular expertise), my understanding is the virus 'dries' not 'dies' soon after contact. In theory, 'dried' virus can transmit covid-19 up to 9 days depending on temperature, humidity, and the substrate it landed on but its may not be not a main vector. Still, the virus that lands on your cellphone (a hard surface) would be more problematic than the virus that lands on your coat (a textile).

I may have this wrong, and these may be guesstimates from experiences with other novel coronaviruses.

 

[timo2]

Here is something that's been puzzling me. I've read that Covid-19 is transmitted primarily through direct contact with someone who's infected, and that this happens when they cough, sneeze, or otherwise transfer virus-infused droplets of moisture from them to you. The key (from what I've read and heard) is that the virus lives in these tiny droplets and that it dies soon after the droplets evaporate due to prolonged exposure to a dry environment outside the body. All that makes sense.

So then, why have I also been reading reports (some in this very thread, I believe) that say the virus can live for up to 9 days outside the body, on surfaces that have been "infected" by someone nearby sneezing, coughing, etc.? Seems like such tiny droplets of moisture would completely evaporate within no more than a few hours on just about any surface, except for things like a damp cloth or in other high-humidity environments (e.g. a greenhouse).

All this leads me to wonder whether I should be concerned about things like my cellphone, my clothes, and other surfaces that could be indirectly exposed to these virus-filled droplets when I'm out and about. Could you actually get infected by touching your phone and then your nose 12 hours, or 24 hours, or even days after being out at the grocery store with it? If so, then I'm really not understanding the subtleties of the transmission dynamics of this virus (or any influenza, for that matter).

I was pondering that same thing. Then I figured that until they tell us to all shave our heads because hair could be a carrier, I will not ponder that any longer.

 

[Tiger8693]

As a point of perspective:
If you were to hear of a new virus that in five months causes in only the USA:
34,000,000 – 49,000,000 illnesses
16,000,000 – 23,000,000 medical visits
350,000 – 620,000 medical stays
20,000 – 52,000 deaths

How would you view the current virus?
.
The above are CDC preliminary statistics for Flu in US only from Oct 1, 2019-Feb 29, 2020
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm

Sorry nwsteve, no "perspective" allowed.

 

[W2R]

It’s now in Vegas and Reno. The Reno case is from a Princess Cruise. The Vegas one did not travel.

There still are no confirmed coronavirus cases in Louisiana, but it's getting closer. There are now some cases in Houston which is about 300 miles from New Orleans. I'm thinking maybe next week.

However, two weeks from today I will have my hands on a brand new video game that I have been dying to play. So, I will have no motivation to leave my home much at all. Good timing, huh?

 

[Sunset]

As a point of perspective:
If you were to hear of a new virus that in five months causes in only the USA:
34,000,000 – 49,000,000 illnesses
16,000,000 – 23,000,000 medical visits
350,000 – 620,000 medical stays
20,000 – 52,000 deaths

How would you view the current virus?
.
The above are CDC preliminary statistics for Flu in US only from Oct 1, 2019-Feb 29, 2020
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm

And that would be great if Covid-19 was like that !!

Problem is nobody actually knows.

Currently from Confirmed cases the death rate is 3.4%, obviously this excludes a number of mild cases, so the percentage is lower.
Pretend for example it's 1/3 of the confirmed cases, and take the low flu estimate.

34,000,000 × (.034÷3) = 385,333 deaths.... doesn't look so good now...

 

[tulak]

Sad article that describes the days leading up to the Kirkland (Seattle/Washington) outbreak of the coronavirus.

https://kuow.org/stories/the-days-leading-up-to-the-outbreak-at-life-care-center-in-kirkland

 

[MichaelB]

And that would be great if Covid-19 was like that !!

Problem is nobody actually knows.

Currently from Confirmed cases the death rate is 3.4%, obviously this excludes a number of mild cases, so the percentage is lower.
Pretend for example it's 1/3 of the confirmed cases, and take the low flu estimate.

34,000,000 × (.034÷3) = 385,333 deaths.... doesn't look so good now...

Not sure what you mean by “confirmed death rate”. The number of fatalities differs dramatically around the world. It is much higher in Wuhan China, while other Chinese provinces have far lower mortality rates. It is also much lower in Taiwan, and South Korea.

A real predictable rate of survival or grading of impact needs time, plenty of information, and lots of testing, and we have not enough of any of that to make accurate projections.

@Sojourner, the WHO reporting indicates the greatest source of transmission is familiar. People are infected from family members. This included health workers. Still too early to draw conclusions from that, but if it comtinues, it means close contact, not infected surfaces, are the main driver.

 

[ziggy29]

And that would be great if Covid-19 was like that !!

Problem is nobody actually knows.

Currently from Confirmed cases the death rate is 3.4%, obviously this excludes a number of mild cases, so the percentage is lower.
Pretend for example it's 1/3 of the confirmed cases, and take the low flu estimate.

34,000,000 × (.034÷3) = 385,333 deaths.... doesn't look so good now...

True. Probably, the best data we have come from South Korea right now because they are doing the most aggressive testing, including people who have few symptoms -- or none at all. According to this article, the South Korean mortality rate is about 0.6%.

https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/heal...navirus-south-koreas-aggressive-testing-gives

Now I'm not convinced it will be that low worldwide when all is said and done. But in most places where the reported mortality rate is much higher, almost all the confirmed infections were from people who were already quite sick and with moderate to severe symptoms. This leads the denominator in the calculation of mortality rate to be too low, since it includes very few mild or asymptomatic cases.

South Korea, on the other hand, is testing a lot more than just those who are very ill. So their 'denominator' (the total number of confirmed infections) is much higher than it would be if they only factored in the most serious cases.

IMO the South Korean data show a probable lower bound to the ultimate mortality rate. It may turn out a bit higher when all is said and done -- especially since South Korea is able to treat positive cases much more quickly and before serious symptoms kick in -- but is probably going to be quite a bit lower than the 2-4% currently seen elsewhere which are not including milder cases. That 2-4% may be close for people who contract it and feel bad enough to seek immediate medical attention, though. We shall see. I am not a doctor and don't play one on TV.

All that said, I don't think we should look at one mortality rate since it really depends so much on your age, immune system and presence or absence of other chronic conditions.

 

[TromboneAl]

As a point of perspective:
If you were to hear of a new virus that in five months causes in only the USA:
34,000,000 – 49,000,000 illnesses
16,000,000 – 23,000,000 medical visits
350,000 – 620,000 medical stays
20,000 – 52,000 deaths

How would you view the current virus?
.
The above are CDC preliminary statistics for Flu in US only from Oct 1, 2019-Feb 29, 2020
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm

Those are truly amazing figures, and it's easy to forget how many people get the flu.

The thing will be to ask that same question in a few months.

Harvard epidemiologist Marc Lipsitch told The Wall Street Journal that "it's likely we'll see a global pandemic" of coronavirus, with 40 to 70 percent of the world's population likely to be infected this year.

There's been no decrease in the exponential rate of increase since I made my (hysterical?) prediction a few days ago, so I tend to believe those numbers. The y axis is logarithmic, and an exponentially increasing curve will show as a straight line.

55% of the population of the US is 180 million. That's only 3-4 times the number of flu cases, which is less than I expected.

If that guy is right, and if the death rate is ...

0.1% (like the flu): 180,000 deaths in the US
1.0%: 1.8 million deaths in the US
3.4%*: 6.1 million deaths in the US

*Globally, about 3.4% of reported COVID-19 cases have died. I'm not saying this will be the final measured death rate (Who said that?).

 

[Pellice]

Well, this is a marker

Just read that Costco is suspending its free sample giveaways. We the people weep.

Oh well, I am one of those FIREd folks who scurried in early weekdays anyway, so I didn't get free samples.

 

[mickeyd]

We are part of a CCRC so you can only imagine that this is quite a topic of discussion these days here. We figure we can hunker down and survive as long as the staff does not bring in the evil covid-19 in their lungs and other places. We live in this secure enclave, they do not.

 

[Sunset]

Just read that Costco is suspending its free sample giveaways. We the people weep.

.....

Oh no !!
Now I need to find another buffet to take DW out to lunch

 

[TromboneAl]

Just read that Costco is suspending its free sample giveaways. We the people weep.

The crisis just got real.

Also, Starbucks will no longer touch your personal coffee cup.

I was confused by this: "the company will continue to honor its 10-cent discount for people bringing their own personal cups," wondering whether you got a 10-cent discount if you showed them your cup. It turns out everyone gets 10 cents off (??)