Does Anyone Else Wish We Would Enter a Bear Market?

[ripper1]

If it's like 2008 we're more like 1/3 of the way there

Cheesehead, you only missed it by a day.....we are halfway there as of today.

 

[yakers]

I am not unhappy with the bear market, I will at least survive and its a good opportunity for 2 sons to build up their retirement funds.

 

[ripper1]

Does anyone else wish we would enter a bear market, if for no other reason than to get the monkey of the longest bull market off our backs? They did get there in Europe yesterday. Or do you think that it really does not matter and I should not worry about it?

A 30% drop in a matter of a few weeks is nothing to sneeze at....lol..pardon my pun.

 

[unclemick]

Can't take it anymore - gonna start putzing/ dollar cost averaging a few GTC orders over the coming year for some total world stock index ET's.

Hope to keep under 5% of retirement portfolio. And will get a grip once Football season starts.

heh heh heh - Male hormones.

 

[easysurfer]

Yep. I have a death wish. Not afraid yet seeing the market drop as much as it has so far.

 

[audreyh1]

Now who was wishing for this? LOL!

Be careful what you wish for!

 

[audreyh1]

A 30% drop in a matter of a few weeks is nothing to sneeze at....lol..pardon my pun.

Yeah, it’s a crash.

 

[dvalley]

I admit it, I was hoping for a quick crash and bounce so I could throw some money into the equities but this is turning into a much scarier event. If the layoffs hit and the recession sets in I'll need every penny of my cash so I'm not even buying equities now

 

[Markola]

To start buying into this bear, I took a baby step today of changing my 403b contributions and employer match from Vanguard Target Date 2020 (50/50 allocation) to Target Date 2060 (90/10). Bonus: I feel like a young professional again!

 

[GR111]

I have been buying a few shares on the down days, knowing that I can’t pick the bottom and we may have a ways to go. Just looking at companies with solid balance sheets that have been too expensive these past several months. This has been a great test of AA strategy and risk tolerance. Time will tell.

I also think this is a time for the nation, and market, to learn and put strong procedures in place before the next pandemic or other crisis. We must learn from this and prepare for the next. Best of luck.

 

[Clone]

Well, I did a bunch of Roth conversions last Thursday, and another big bunch today. Uncle Sam sure took a screwin' on those taxes...

<Insert Sad Trombone Sounds>

 

[gcgang]

I admit it, I was hoping for a quick crash and bounce so I could throw some money into the equities but this is turning into a much scarier event. If the layoffs hit and the recession sets in I'll need every penny of my cash so I'm not even buying equities now

If you don’t have a sufficient cash emergency reserve, you shouldn’t be buying equities.

If you wait until you feel safe to invest, the market will have already recovered.

EAT YOUR VEGETABLES and buy while others are fearful. Just remember, you need time on your side - things might get even more fearful.

 

[gcgang]

If your home goes up 50% and drops 40%, you are down 10%

But in the land of the time weighted money manager, they can boast of a 10% total return.

 

[Chuckanut]

No. I do not wish for a Bear market. To many people would be hurt.

 

[razztazz]

If you don’t have a sufficient cash emergency reserve, you shouldn’t be buying equities.

If you wait until you feel safe to invest, the market will have already recovered.

EAT YOUR VEGETABLES and buy while others are fearful. Just remember, you need time on your side - things might get even more fearful.

Not how it works. If you buy while people are scared you just get steamed rolled. Everybody doesn't get fearful all at once nor euphoric all at once. That's why toppy markets can stay irrational for a long time. (Like this one was just 3 weeks ago!) Then the buy/holders will wag a finger about needing to stay fully invested...? If you're gonna do this you're supposed to wait till that point when everybody who's going to be scared is scared. If the fear is still building or in-progress why buy then?

If you wait until you feel safe to invest, the market will have already recovered.

This is just an assertion. A tautology or something? What do you mean by "will have recovered"? If it's on the way up it's a good time to buy. Better than losing money of a falling knife. If you mean after it achieves and surpasses a new all-time high yes you're late but who would wait that long to buy? Nobody who knows anything about money or investing. Nobody needs to get out at the top or in at the bottom to make it work.

 

[dvalley]

If you don’t have a sufficient cash emergency reserve, you shouldn’t be buying equities.

If you wait until you feel safe to invest, the market will have already recovered.

EAT YOUR VEGETABLES and buy while others are fearful. Just remember, you need time on your side - things might get even more fearful.

I think defining 'sufficient' cash emergency fund is a bit challenging though if the recession takes hold. I had 2yrs of expenses in cash, I threw some of it into the market on the dips but now as things are looking unpredictable and this could be a longer term setback for the economy I'm planning to sit tight and jump in when I feel comfortable. I'll miss the bottom but hopefully still make some gains on the way back up...whenever that is.

 

[griffithee]

But warren says...

Not how it works. If you buy while people are scared you just get steamed rolled. Everybody doesn't get fearful all at once nor euphoric all at once.

Warren Buffet (the greatest investor of all time, allegedly) says, "Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful."

How do you do that if you dont know when it is?

 

[NW-Bound]

Warren Buffet (the greatest investor of all time, allegedly) says, "Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful."

How do you do that if you dont know when it is?

You can watch the Web, the media, various forums for a measure of the sentiment of the crowd. They are definitely fearful, or at least less greedy than they were just a month ago.

Will the crowd get even more fearful? Beats me, but I venture that they will. How much more fear? I don't know.

Still sitting on quite a bit of cash. Could not contain myself, and have been buying a bit. Probably will kick myself for buying too early, but it's hard to resist.

 

[2177V]

Does anyone else wish we would enter a bear market, if for no other reason than to get the monkey of the longest bull market off our backs? They did get there in Europe yesterday. Or do you think that it really does not matter and I should not worry about it?

A "bear market" is usually defined as a sustained 20% stock market drop from the most recent highs. A "recession" is usually defined as two quarters of negative growth of our economy. They usually go together but one is associated with the stock market and one is associated with the economy.

A recession is sometimes better because it is part of the business cycle which under-performing businesses do not survive but in the long term the economy becomes stronger. This is because surviving businesses reduces their labor force (unfortunately) and learn to become more efficient with less people or with better equipment. The results is more profit and the businesses can consider making decisions about expanding and start to hire more people. When the public feels that unemployment is being reduced, the public start spending again. The bear market ends and starts a bull market cycle which usually last longer than the previous bear market.

In 2019, I reallocated my 60/40 portfolio to 100% treasury bonds when the yield curve inverted. When the yield curve inverts, this has been a reliable warning sign that a recession and a bear market is coming. I studied the business cycle in my Economic 1A class in college so I became bearish. The stock market was going up too fast. (be fearful when everyone is greedy)

In answer to your question: I was one who wanted a recession and a bear market but only a "mild" one in order for the business cycle to re-start and for me to start buying equities again. Unfortunately, it now looks like we are going have a severe recession and a severe bear market. This is due to the Corona Virus and we were experiencing a stock market high similar to the roaring 20's. If you recall, this is just before the great crash of the 1930's. I never believed that a bull market will last forever and I always believed that recessions will always occur.

 

[Retired Expat]

I do. It's the one thing I've worried about, and now that we are very close, I'm wishing the market drops just a bit more so that we can start a fresh bull market.

So you guys did this? You wished for a bear market and that is what you got!.

A bear on fire, soon to be a dead bear....

 

[NW-Bound]

The bear is coughing, gets a fever, and now tries to get tested.

 

[foxfirev5]

Well, be carefull what you wish for. As far as I go I'll look out for myself. Old school.

 

[6miths]

Certainly happy for my children. The market was getting to be a pretty expensive and risky place to buy into. Now if we can get the real estate market to follow suit we would be good. This may happen here for several reasons: people will now feel less flush with money, some of the off-shore money may dry up for various reasons and possibly the virus may open up some housing. Interest rates were already ridiculously low so I don't know if the recent easing is going to make a big difference on the up side.

 

[2177V]

In honor of Kenny Rogers in his song the "Gambler":

"You have to know when to hold them, when to fold them and when to walk away."

The stock market is like gambling.

I knew when to walk away when the yield curve inverted in 2019 so I reallocated from 60/40 to 100% treasuries mainly because I was approaching age 70 and Jeffrey Gundlach stated that 2019 is a capital preservation year.

If you were an older investor, you should have been ready to "walk away" and not gamble like a young man because "life is short".

Unless you really believe that you are going to live forever and the record bull market will last forever.

Jeffrey Gundlach and Kenny Rogers (RIP) are my free financial advisors. Like Kenny's song, the best you can do is to "die in your sleep".

 

[cyber888]

I don’t wish a bear market. But we are now in a Bear market after a 30%+ drop. And we may go into a hopefully ‘short’ recession as millions are losing their jobs.