Has anyone here caught the Virus, or know anyone who has?

[gerntz]

Dr. Birx with the Task Force stated today that the WHO test kits were throwing out false negatives and false positives, hence their decision to create their own.

Thanks for that. USA should just accept global tests are perfect.

 

[gerntz]

Still normal around here, sometimes I think we forget there are 350+ Million folks here in the USA.

That's a lot more immigrants than I thought since the number I've heard in 327M here.

 

[gerntz]

Don't know anyone yet, but the bottom line is the USA numbers are probably way under reported due to still the lack of widespread testing. Doesn't really take a genius to figure out why.......

No matter how many test +, the number of reported cases will always be far less than actual unless everyone is forced to be tested. And why would we do that?

 

[gerntz]

Task Force today warned that now that testing is ramping, expect significant number jumps over the next week.

Number +, not number of deaths. Tests don't change deaths - today.

 

[gerntz]

It's amazing that federal government is so slow of proving (or deploying) corona-virus tests readily for the masses given the news of the breakout back in the December.

LOL. Just how many deaths would testing have stopped if social distancing didn't happen?

 

[Ready]

Testing helps us to determine who is infected so that we can better practice isolation of infected individuals. But it also allows us to collect more data on who is infected, their age and health profile, how sick they are getting and how long it takes for them to recover. This data collected in aggregate could help us to better implement controls to reduce the spread of the disease and to provide necessary data for researchers to develop treatment protocols and eventually a vaccine. But we are a long way away from testing everyone, or even everyone with symptoms.

 

[gerntz]

Germany has over 8000 cases but only 12 deaths the lowest rate among all countries. One of the factors their health minister attributed the aggressive testing through their regular labs that started on January 21.

Agree that testing more folks without obvious or weak symptoms would result in a lower death rate. But presence tests can't lower the number of deaths for those with it.

 

[gerntz]

Here again Germany hasn't been overly aggressive considering their proximity and their open border exposure to Italy.

Germany does not border Italy.

 

[gerntz]

It's 16% of the people tested. The important question is, who is being tested?

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I'm pretty sure at this point they are only testing people suspected of having it (showing typical symptoms). So I really have no idea how to extrapolate this to the larger population.

-ERD50

That's exactly right.

 

[gerntz]

(USA: 8th highest national total, with 7,769; 121 deaths)

With 3rd largest population - for perspective..

 

[Birdie Num Nums]

Number +, not number of deaths. Tests don't change deaths - today.

Without testing, some recent deaths attributed to pneumonia generically, for example, could actually be CV-19 related.

 

[NW-Bound]

Without testing, some recent deaths attributed to pneumonia generically, for example, could actually be CV-19 related.

I would hope that they give priority to testing hospitalized patients. And that's why they do not test people with mild symptoms.

If a patient died at home, I hope they do the test as part of an autopsy.

 

[ivinsfan]

Germany does not border Italy.

They are both EU countries so in essence no difference..I'm guessing you knew that..

 

[doneat54]

No doubt. This is always a rough time of year where I live because of tree pollen. Many of us suffer greatly from that.

Would seem to me that the CV-19 symptoms are fairly distinct from pollen allergies, at least the kind I get. No fever, or respiratory issues.

 

[copyright1997reloaded]

Testing data

Site with information on COVID-19 tests performed in the United States: https://covidtracking.com/data/

In the last 24 hours, 22410 tests, vs 12535 performed the day before. Of the total tests done (76,495), 10.1% have been positive. Of the tests performed in the last 24 hours, 2008 positive or a positive rate of 2008/22410 = 8..96%. Note the decrease in the positive % rate - this is expected due to the early testing scarcity (only the really really presumptive cases would qualify).

We should the number of positive cases to increase sharply as more are tested. This does *NOT* mean the virus is spreading at that same growth rate, and it would be a good sign if we see the % positive declining.

For example (hypothetical): Let's say we have 10X the current testing rate, but with a 3% positive rate. We would find 22410*10*.03 = 6723 'new' cases (vs the 2008 current baseline add). Some of these are people who newly acquired the virus, but some/many would people who already had it (as of now) but hadn't yet been detected.

So just be aware when we get 'bombarded' with jumps in cases that there needs to be more of an understanding of the overall data and infection rate.

 

[harley]

Would seem to me that the CV-19 symptoms are fairly distinct from pollen allergies, at least the kind I get. No fever, or respiratory issues.

The early symptoms are very similar to colds and allergies. It isn't until the second week or so that the fever and lung issues get started. Certainly similar enough to cause concern, if you've got the symptoms.

 

[pb4uski]

There are only 12 cases in the two counties near our condo (we're only a mile from the county line so I combine the two counties).. so no, we don't know anyone. For the same area, 253 tests have been done, 163 negative, 12 positive and the remainder pending results. Popution of the two counties is over 800,000... probably closer to 1 million given that it is high season.

 

[NW-Bound]

I would hope that they give priority to testing hospitalized patients. And that's why they do not test people with mild symptoms.

If a patient died at home, I hope they do the test as part of an autopsy.

A snippet about a 55-year-old NJ woman who recently died of the virus indicated that they did testing to find cause of death for hospitalized patients.

She's part of a family cluster of 7 hospitalized patients, with 2 already deceased including herself. The other 19 members of her extended family are awaiting test results, but not hospitalized. It was not said if they had any symptom.

... Rita-Fusco Jackson died last Friday and later tested positive for COVID-19, becoming the state’s second victim.

 

[sgstaley]

I am in Illinois. I was an election judge yesterday. Nobody that came in to vote mentioned anyone that had it. I think our closed case is Chicago (1 death - >90 yrs old).

 

[JoeWras]

The early symptoms are very similar to colds and allergies. It isn't until the second week or so that the fever and lung issues get started. Certainly similar enough to cause concern, if you've got the symptoms.

Source?

 

[pb4uski]

Germany does not border Italy.

But to be fair, the southern German border and northern Italian border are less than 100km apart. It is 70km from Mittenwald, Germany to Brenner, Italy... and probably less as the crow flies... about twice the width of Long Island... so not very far at all.

 

[street]

Originally Posted by harley View Post
The early symptoms are very similar to colds and allergies. It isn't until the second week or so that the fever and lung issues get started. Certainly similar enough to cause concern, if you've got the symptoms.

^ I also would like to see the source.

 

[gerntz]

Without testing, some recent deaths attributed to pneumonia generically, for example, could actually be CV-19 related.

Attributed or not doesn't change true number.

 

[gerntz]

But to be fair, the southern German border and northern Italian border are less than 100km apart. It is 70km from Mittenwald, Germany to Brenner, Italy... and probably less as the crow flies... about twice the width of Long Island... so not very far at all.

I wasn't unfair at all. Quite factual actually.

 

[NW-Reader]

Late to the thread because I was taking a sanity break away from the internet. I know someone who had it here in Seattle. She's the one in this Seattle Times article. She has also been talking to the NYT and contacted by the Today Show, although she's not sure she's ready to go that route. She is one of the small handful of people who were diagnosed through the Seattle Flu Study; otherwise she never would have gotten a test.

I’m pretty sure when and where I picked up the virus — from a small gathering attended by my husband and several of my friends, a few of whom got sick too. But no one knows who dropped it off. No one from the gathering was coughing or sneezing.

Testing personnel and materials are scarce, and resources are rightfully going to help those who most need them. Which means that yes, untested, untreated people are walking around with this virus. One of them gave it to someone I know, who gave it to me. But rather than looking around at your fellow humans and wondering if they’re going to give you coronavirus, think about whether you might be the one giving it to them.

https://www.seattletimes.com/life/what-i-want-you-to-know-about-coronavirus-from-someone-who-recovered-from-covid-19/

I have not seen her in months so I don't worry about exposure to her, but at this point I am operating as if everyone I see has it, and as if I have it and can spread it to anyone I see.

I think the number one takeaway from her story is that it can be spread by people who are presymptomatic. That is why the lack of testing is so dire, because if we could test everyone we could do a better job of quarantining.

one fact is, at 16% it's still more likely that you have a cold and not COVID...let's not stoke panic in people.

The problem is you don't know who is who.

I feel like I have been shouting into the abyss the past two weeks. Ten days ago a friend in Palm Springs told me to "get a grip." Today Palm Springs implemented shelter-in-place. Please, please learn from us here in Seattle and take the drastic measures before you think you need them. I know many of us on this forum are good at thinking ahead, or we wouldn't be FIRE'd. But we also know that many people aren't like that, so please spread the word.