I am going to 100% cash (my last trade out of the market is this Monday) to wait this out and am taking the proceeds and spreading it around to several banks to make sure I am FDIC ensured in all directions. I am keeping my powder dry and very liquid.
I will start dollar cost averaging when the Dow hits 15,000 which I personally believe we will hit (ie. approx. 50% decline). If I see momentum selling beyond 15,000 I will just slow down my dollar cost averaging and would LOVE to get in as 13,000 or 14,000 even less if I can.
I have 5 years living expenses set aside beyond what I will dollar cost average into the market when that time comes. And once back in the market, if it stalls out for years, I can just live with the dividends. While it could keep going down which is entirely possible, I think buying in at 15,000 or lower gives me a nice base to bounce back up over time. In 5 years, I think I will be very happy.
But I do also believe that this virus condition is short lived. It will do ALOT of damage but I think once we see a treatment or God willing, a cure the market is going to turn around fast and since I was very conservative (30/70) before this downturn, going back in at levels I feel good about, I will probably flip that to 70/30 and make up my losses pretty quickly.
I know, I know. I have seen all of the data on market timing. I get it. But I think everyone can see the carnage coming down and I just don't want to take even more hits. I see absolutely nothing in the economy right now that is going to lift stocks in the near term and I am not a great individual stock picker. Some of you are great at that and will do very well with some beaten down stocks, but that is not my strength...