2020 Storm Season

[MichaelB]

Looks like tropical storm Cristobal is headed over South Mexico and toward US landfall, and may hit this weekend. Time to look over hurricane supplies and make sure everyone is well stocked and prepared for the season.

 

[CaptTom]

Yes, run out and stock up on toilet paper, disinfectant, hand sanitizer, baking supplies, and... No. Wait. Never mind.

 

[Dtail]

Yes, run out and stock up on toilet paper, disinfectant, hand sanitizer, baking supplies, and... No. Wait. Never mind.

Hey, there is some overlap between the two. I always am low on the water supply, but not this year.

 

[atmsmshr]

Good prompt.

I will add that those of us in most vulnerable areas should have a discussion with your significant other about relocation plans. Also, if not done already, update the insurance policies and put them in a safe place or a copy in a bug out bag.

 

[street]

I feel for the people living on the coasts where such devastation can occur from those storms. It is a choice to where to live but not sure I would be up for that kind of living location. My hopes for all, a calm of weather for you.

 

[Car-Guy]

These days, hurricane preparedness for me means clearing out the guest room(s) for family members (a.k.a. refugees). We are far enough away from the coast (150+ miles) so we don't worry about high hurricane winds and we don't flood around here no matter how much it rains (unless it's 40 days and nights )

However we are close enough for family members to reach us (maybe) in case of an evacuation.

 

[Bir48die]

Yeah, they "guess" that there will be 20 hurricanes this year. Last year six. Why the increase? That's what the "models" say. So, would love to review this in a year and see if those models are correct. So far 2020 isn't the best year for modeling.

 

[REWahoo]

Unlike pandemics resulting from a previously unknown viral disease, weather scientists have had decades to hone their skills at modeling potential seasonal outcomes. Recent history indicates they've done a reasonably good job: Hurricane Season Predictions vs. Reality

 

[Car-Guy]

Unlike pandemics resulting from a previously unknown viral disease, weather scientists have had decades years to hone their skills at modeling potential seasonal outcomes. Recent history indicates they've done a reasonably good job: Hurricane Season Predictions vs. Reality

They may be getting better at predicting hurricanes, but they are wrong as often as they are right about rain. I have lost count at how many times they say the chance of rain is ~80% and we get nothing and then they say ~30% and we get multiple downpours. (Yes I know what % means in weather forecasting) The best predictor for rain for me is, if I wash my car, it's going to rain "that day".

 

[Dtail]

Unlike pandemics resulting from a previously unknown viral disease, weather scientists have had decades to hone their skills at modeling potential seasonal outcomes. Recent history indicates they've done a reasonably good job: Hurricane Season Predictions vs. Reality

Not bad overall, but their editing skills need to improve.
Check out the 2016 actual hurricanes vs. major hurricanes result.

 

[REWahoo]

Not bad overall, but their editing skills need to improve.

Note the author of the article. Can't blame the weather guys for lousy editing by an insurance adjuster.

 

[OldShooter]

For weather junkies, here is a very good site: https://maps.redcross.org/website/Weather/ARC_Weather.html

For the less intense, here is the NWS hurricane page: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/cyclones/

 

[Arizona1]

DW’s parents live in the Yucatán where Cristobal just passed over. If you like to live on a clean street you can retire early and cheap here.

 

[street]

^ Wow! Is that area a cheap place to live in general??

 

[Clone]

I think it is time for some higher power to take the 2020 Etch-A-Sketch, flip it over, and give it a good shake.

 

[W2R]

I think it is time for some higher power to take the 2020 Etch-A-Sketch, flip it over, and give it a good shake.

Best comment of the thread! LOL

Frank says bad things happen in threes. He's always right. Pandemic, riots, and what's #3? Cristobal? Right now the NHC says Cristobal should get here on Sunday morning.

Meanwhile, I guess I am reasonably prepared. Monday should be quite a day. Cristobal (perhaps still?), my 72nd birthday, and I have a Prime Pantry delivery scheduled. I suspect we will skip the gym and just stay home on Sunday and/or Monday, keep an eye on Cristobal, and wait it out.

 

[aja8888]

Here's another good weather site that is out of Florida (Mike's Weather Page)


https://spaghettimodels.com/

 

[aja8888]

Best comment of the thread! LOL

Frank says bad things happen in threes. He's always right. Pandemic, riots, and what's #3? Cristobal? Right now the NHC says Cristobal should get here on Sunday morning.

Meanwhile, I guess I am reasonably prepared. Monday should be quite a day. Cristobal (perhaps still?), my 72nd birthday, and I have a Prime Pantry delivery scheduled. I suspect we will skip the gym and just stay home on Sunday and/or Monday, keep an eye on Cristobal, and wait it out.

W2R, it's almost time to change your avatar to one with an umbrella!

 

[W2R]

W2R, it's almost time to change your avatar to one with an umbrella!

Good idea!!! Here it is.

 

[Blueskies123]

Here's another good weather site that is out of Florida (Mike's Weather Page)


https://spaghettimodels.com/

2nd Mikes Weather Page. Follow him on Facebook and he does a daily show in the morning where he goes in depth on the storm models. He only does the shows when the storms start going.

 

[CaptTom]

Frank says bad things happen in threes. He's always right. Pandemic, riots, and what's #3? Cristobal?

Three? Where have you been?

Remember the wildfires in AU? The almost-war between US and Iran? The British Royals? Impeachment? Stock market crash(es)? Bankruptcies? UFO Videos? Murder hornets? Hong Kong?

Reminds me of what's said to be an old Chinese curse: "May you live in interesting times."

 

[W2R]

Well, turns out that Cristobal wasn't #3. So far all we had was maximum wind gusts of 25 mph, and and 1.6" of rain. Pfft. Pretty much an average rainstorm so far (for New Orleans, anyway).

I think some places in Florida and Mississippi got hammered but not us, at least not so far.

Cristobal made landfall in south Louisiana about an hour ago, about 51 miles south of us. From the NHC website,

Satellite, radar, and surface data indicate that the center of Tropical Storm Cristobal made landfall at 500 PM CDT (2200 UTC) along the coast of southeast Louisiana between the mouth of the Mississippi River and Grand Isle. Maximum sustained winds were estimated near 50 mph (85 km/h) with a minimum central pressure of 992 mb (29.29 inches).

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCUAT3+shtml/072209.shtml

While it was making landfall, we were at our favorite restaurant having lunch. It was only drizzling, and I didn't even need to put up the hood on my rain jacket. Maybe we'll get more wind and rain than that, later tonight.

 

[KB]

Glad to hear the storm was relatively mild. It sounded like it might have caused a lot of flooding in your state.

 

[Car-Guy]

Well, turns out that Cristobal wasn't #3. So far all we had was maximum wind gusts of 25 mph, and and 1.6" of rain. Pfft. Pretty much an average rainstorm so far (for New Orleans, anyway).

I have relatives that live in Houma... Earlier today they thought they might be taking a direct hit and expecting 2 to 3" of rain and ~40 mph gusts... That's about as mild as a named storm can get on a direct hit.

 

[W2R]

I have relatives that live in Houma... Earlier today they thought they might be taking a direct hit and expecting 2 to 3" of rain and ~40 mph gusts... That's about as mild as a named storm can get on a direct hit.

A day or two ago predictions for us were 8-10" of rain, with up to 20" in isolated locations, and 50-60 mph winds. Luckily none of that happened in our case (at least so far). Predictions for us now are improving rapidly. Best wishes for your relatives in Houma and I hope they are OK too.