Next hurricane headed toward LA/MISS?

[W2R]

(it's still - unfortunately - 2020)

Unfortunately, yes.

Believe me, when 2020 is over, we'll celebrate like never before!

 

[Dtail]

I guess I would turn the question around a bit. What is your deal? We all know and accept this has been a terrible year to live in the gulf - especially around NOLA. I don't think I've heard anyone dispute that. We've all worried about and prayed for W2R.

JoeWras points out in 235 that hurricane numbers and intensity seem to run in cycles longer than many human memories. Therefore what seems "unusual" may well be a repetition of something your parents or grand parents would have remembered. We don't know why this happens, but the same cycle time seem to apply to large areas of drought. I recall 1965 to 1975 being an unusually bad 10 years for tornadoes in the midwest (mentioned elsewhere - one tornado through the front yard one year, another tornado through the back yard the next year. We didn't move and there have been none since in that specific area.)

It could be sun activity, some natural ocean ebb-flow situation, yes, it might even be (well,you know) but then again, even the experts don't really know.

Bad as 2021 is (in certain areas) I just think we need to be cautious about making significant conclusions about causation because YMMV.

No deal for me. Reread all his comments on storms and then come back again.
Of course YMMV....

 

[W2R]

Getting back to hurricanes in the Gulf, here's the latest NHC track. Hmm!

 

[audreyh1]

That’s a wide cone. No telling!

 

[Koolau]

No deal for me. Reread all his comments on storms and then come back again.
Of course YMMV....

Okay, read 'em all. What did I miss?

 

[audreyh1]

Getting back to hurricanes in the Gulf, here's the latest NHC track. Hmm!

Uh-oh! Although we won’t have much clarity until past the weekend IMO.

 

[JoeWras]

The weather community has concerns about storms like Sandy that are not properly captured just by their "hurricane category." There's disagreement on how to measure, and how to warn. All I can say is they are working on it, but ultimately it takes the government and probably international standards body to come up with new ways of measuring and alerting.

We saw something like this with Dorian last year. Dorian devastated the Bahamas. By the time it got to NC, it seemed to have lost all its punch. But it didn't. I carried a slug of water with it that resulted in a devastating storm surge. The same happened with Sandy.

It is research in progress. There's work to do with the accuracy of the surge forecast, and associated warnings.

 

[Gumby]

Uh-oh! Although we won’t have much clarity until past the weekend IMO.

Has New Orleans turned into some sort of gravity well that sucks all matter into it, starting with all cyclonic storms?

 

[Car-Guy]

Has New Orleans turned into some sort of gravity well that sucks all matter into it, starting with all cyclonic storms?

Well it is sort of a bowl geographically that's below sea level for the most part...Maybe that's pulling them in...

It's a fading memory these days but I seem to remember when I was a young man (13 or 14 years old) walking down Canal Street and seeing ships going by on the Mississippi that sure seem to be up higher than the surrounding terrain. Maybe it was an optical illusion...

 

[W2R]

Has New Orleans turned into some sort of gravity well that sucks all matter into it, starting with all cyclonic storms?

My theory is that the NHC is full of kind, empathetic meteorologists who are worried about New Orleans after Katrina's devastation. They don't want us to be unprepared, so they predict every storm to come directly here, scaring us half to death so we keep our guard up.

They put up another new track after the one above was posted, so here it is. Sure looks weird to me! It might be going towards Mobile this time.

 

[Aerides]

From living in florida forever, it has always seemed there are patterns (though, of course, I'm no expert and this year is a real spike in that pattern), but we often see seasons where everything coming our way curves up to the carolinas, or in another year, where everything goes gulf side and in the Galveston/NO section.

Then of course we get our years, like 2004/5, etc.

 

[Montecfo]

More about Eta

Had to check this AM. Eta looks like it may head more toward Florida, defying (for now) that New Orleans/W2R "homing"algorithm , but large cone and a lot could change. It's a tropical depression, but expected to strengthen. Let's hope it decides to bounce out into the Atlantic.

And a separate tropical disturbance now being tracked. This could be a record setter in terms of named storms or could become nothing, we will see.

I try to offer fact-based context as an analyst, and I see a few others doing the same. I remain mindful of safety and preparedness. That is my deal.

 

[Koolau]

Well it is sort of a bowl geographically that's below sea level for the most part...Maybe that's pulling them in...

It's a fading memory these days but I seem to remember when I was a young man (13 or 14 years old) walking down Canal Street and seeing ships going by on the Mississippi that sure seem to be up higher than the surrounding terrain. Maybe it was an optical illusion...

I was 16 the first time I visited NOLA. I fell in love with the place and that was before I was old enough to appreciate such things as Bourbon St. music and gaiety.

I took a ride on a boat on the Mississippi past NOLA and was surprised to be able to look DOWN INTO the city. It was if I was in a boat in a huge bath tub and I could look over the side at the floor below.

Now I understand that NOLA is lower than the level of the river - due to a series of levees and other artificial means of keeping the river from entering the city (most of the time.)

I have seen the same phenomenon in man made lakes (I suppose it would be similar to riding a boat through locks on a canal.) In any case, it's other-worldly when you first experience it.

So, it was no optical illusion. It was real.

 

[audreyh1]

Hmmmm - storm movement is just going to stall out in the Gulf west of Florida?

 

[W2R]

Hmmmm - storm movement is just going to stall out in the Gulf west of Florida?

I hope they don't get flooding in that part of Florida. I remember Tropical Storm Allison back in 2001. It was a slow mover with heavy rainfall, and caused considerable flooding in Texas primarily but also in Louisiana.

Also notice the (pink) hurricane watches issued over southern Florida! This storm is just one surprise after another.

 

[Dtail]

I hope they don't get flooding in that part of Florida. I remember Tropical Storm Allison back in 2001. It was a slow mover with heavy rainfall, and caused considerable flooding in Texas primarily but also in Louisiana.

Also notice the (pink) hurricane watches issued over southern Florida! This storm is just one surprise after another.

Yeah some of the models have the storm turning back east over Tampa after hitting Florida in the original pass.
Could get interesting.

 

[W2R]

Yeah some of the models have the storm turning back east over Tampa after hitting Florida in the original pass.
Could get interesting.

Yikes! Take care, Dtail and other Floridians.

 

[W2R]

Yikes! Take care, Dtail and other Floridians.

Looks like the NHC decided those models are right. They have it headed to Tampa, later on this coming week!

 

[audreyh1]

This one should be called Snake!

 

[W2R]

This one should be called Snake!

+1 Tropical Storm Snake. Perfect!

 

[audreyh1]

Crazy! Forecast track shifting south and hurricane watches now.

 

[W2R]

Crazy! Forecast track shifting south and hurricane watches now.

Hurricane warnings, even! Wow. Looks like the Keys and other parts of south Florida are going to get clobbered. All I can say is that I'm going to be watching Eta like a hawk on Tuesday night, when it's supposed to make that turn. It better DO it!

I think this storm is the craziest one of the season, in both predicted path and intensity.

 

[RAE]

Yeah some of the models have the storm turning back east over Tampa after hitting Florida in the original pass.
Could get interesting.

I am about 80 miles north of Tampa, and will be watching closely to see if that turn to the NE happens or not. Some models are now projecting that the storm just stalls out (around tues/wed) some distance out in the Gulf, generally west of Tampa, and then weakens over the next couple days or so before drifting to the north. If that happens, it will probably mean a fair amount of rain for Tampa and points north, but not all that much wind. And hopefully not much storm surge either............that is what I worry about more than anything.

 

[Dtail]

I am about 80 miles north of Tampa, and will be watching closely to see if that turn to the NE happens or not. Some models are now projecting that the storm just stalls out (around tues/wed) some distance out in the Gulf, generally west of Tampa, and then weakens over the next couple days or so before drifting to the north. If that happens, it will probably mean a fair amount of rain for Tampa and points north, but not all that much wind. And hopefully not much storm surge either............that is what I worry about more than anything.

Yes good luck with the storm surge. I am ~35 miles inland from the ocean, so no issue there.
However, more of the spaghetti strands are directed over Tampa and a little north of here and the wind issue could take down my lanai I suppose if over 60 mph. Just a guess.

 

[MichaelB]

So, did someone at the NHC forget that hurricane season is supposed to be over? What's with all the wind and rain right now, flood watch warnings and hurricane advisories?

We were gonna get take out tonight but I'm not going out in the dark when I can't see how much water is on the roads and the food delivery services are all reporting extra long delivery wait time due to "driver shortage".