Next hurricane headed toward LA/MISS?

[Koolau]

What a strange year! The Gulf Coast has been unfairly targeted. To our friends down there, I send my best wishes. I'd be traveling to help with recovery, except that we're still working recovery here in NC from storms of 1, 2 and 4 years ago. It is keeping our recovery team busy.

Believe it or not, this year's hurricane activity is way down worldwide.

To us in North and Central America, this seems impossible. But with only a few exceptions (one happening now), the Pacific has shut down.

The world is interconnected. Some forecasters call it "teleconnections." The more we learn about the weather, the more we find out that what happens on the other side of the world matters. This is a small planet after all.

For those more interested in tropical storms, Colorado State University is a great source. Funny a land-locked school has such high esteem. Tropical weather specialists measure something they call ACE, Accumulated Cyclone Energy, in order to judge hurricane seasons overall. In the northern hemisphere, the current ACE is 373.1 versus a normal of 496.2. Way down. With the current storm ETA, it will catch up a bit. Still down when the Pacific drought is factored in. Our sense about our neighborhood is correct, though. The Atlantic ACE is 150.8, where normal is 98.8. Way over.

Link: https://tropical.colostate.edu/forecasting.html

Chart:

Much as I despise 2020, I think it's important NOT to extrapolate a bad year in the Gulf - and it HAS been THAT - to the entire world and it's "issues." I won't mention them, but you know the various catastrophes I'm talking about - minus Covid.

Stuff happens, patterns come and go, associations vs causation should be at the top of our thinking. I reject panic though I personally do what I can to limit my effects on our home planet. That's all I'll say because I know opinions vary and YMMV.

 

[Dtail]

Much as I despise 2020, I think it's important NOT to extrapolate a bad year in the Gulf - and it HAS been THAT - to the entire world and it's "issues." I won't mention them, but you know the various catastrophes I'm talking about - minus Covid.

Stuff happens, patterns come and go, associations vs causation should be at the top of our thinking. I reject panic though I personally do what I can to limit my effects on our home planet. That's all I'll say because I know opinions vary and YMMV.

Perhaps specifically in the gulf, but it does appear that the number of storms are increasing in these parts.

 

[W2R]

OK - forecast come track has Eta heading into the Gulf as a tropical storm near Florida early next week. We will have a much better idea this weekend.

I hope it doesn't hit Florida! Looks like Cuba might get hammered. We sure have had a lot of hurricanes and tropical storms in the Gulf this year.

On the bright side, we will have stories to tell younger generations about, for years. "Hurricane? You think you've seen hurricanes, sonny? Let me tell you about a REAL hurricane season, back in the year 2020...." I need to develop a witch-like cackle to deliver that line properly.

Honestly I am done worrying about Eta. It isn't supposed to come here but if they decide later to draw another cone with New Orleans in it, I'll just hunker down (again).

 

[cbo111]

I hope it doesn't hit Florida! Looks like Cuba might get hammered. We sure have had a lot of hurricanes and tropical storms in the Gulf this year.

On the bright side, we will have stories to tell younger generations about, for years. "Hurricane? You think you've seen hurricanes, sonny? Let me tell you about a REAL hurricane season, back in the year 2020...." I need to develop a witch-like cackle to deliver that line properly.

Honestly I am done worrying about Eta. It isn't supposed to come here but if they decide later to draw another cone with New Orleans in it, I'll just hunker down (again).

And the younger generation will probably respond, "You had a season for hurricanes back then? We have them all year long now!!"

 

[audreyh1]

I hope it doesn't hit Florida! Looks like Cuba might get hammered.

Right now it is forecast to turn northwest near the tip of Florida, crossing the Keys. Then making a beeline to where.....?

This zig-zag track should have been for Zeta!

 

[W2R]

Right now it is forecast to turn northwest near the tip of Florida, crossing the Keys. Then making a beeline to where.....?

Figures!! LOLOLOL

This zig-zag track should have been for Zeta!

For sure! That's such an insane projected track!

 

[Car-Guy]

There is no way that New Orleans luck can be that bad...

 

[Montecfo]

Hurricanes run in cycles because they depend on specific weather conditions in order to form. This has been a busy year. So was 2005. We seem to forget the years in between.

 

[Dtail]

Hurricanes run in cycles because they depend on specific weather conditions in order to form. This has been a busy year. So was 2005. We seem to forget the years in between.

Wouldn't 15+ storms a year qualify for a decently busy season pattern, as has happened since 2016?
In Virginia, probably not a busy few seasons for tropical storms.

 

[JoeWras]

Hurricanes run in cycles because they depend on specific weather conditions in order to form. This has been a busy year. So was 2005. We seem to forget the years in between.

Some weather climatologists argue it is roughly a 30 to 40 year cycle, mostly based on ocean patterns. This graph is right from NOAA, and uses ACE, as I mentioned earlier. You can see that '60 to '95 were very quiet. Most of us grew up in this time and considered it normal.

Go back before this, and the 20s through 50s were brutal, except that the coastal population was a fraction of today. This period saw horrific hurricanes in Florida, specifically the infamous labor day hurricane of 1935 that changed the keys forever, and also Okeechobee hurricane of 1928, which not only scoured the beaches clean in Palm Beach county, but also killed somewhere around 2,300 people inland near lake Okeechobee. Yes, over 2000 people.

If the pattern holds, we should be entering a very quiet period in the Atlantic again. The next two decades will tell the overall story. Let's hope this year is the last gasp of the current active period.

 

[W2R]

Wow, the projected track of Eta just gets stranger and stranger! it's expected to head out towards the central Gulf of Mexico.

 

[Montecfo]

Wouldn't 15+ storms a year qualify for a decently busy season pattern, as has happened since 2016?
In Virginia, probably not a busy few seasons for tropical storms.

You mean half as many as this year?

2005 had 28, 2006 had 10. People prognosticating very busy hurricane seasons based on 2005 would have been wrong.

And we had no major hurricanes landfalling on the US mainland for 11 years from 2006-16 the longest such period in history. Again, I doubt armchair prognosticators would have predicted that, scientists certainly didn't.

 

[Alan]

And we had no major hurricanes landfalling on the US mainland for 11 years from 2006-16 the longest such period in history. Again, I doubt armchair prognosticators would have predicted that, scientists certainly didn't.

I was living in Baton Rouge during Gustav in 2008 and evacuated after 3 days of no power, and the chemical site I worked at shutdown for 2 weeks because of damage.

Our son in Houston was hit even harder by hurricane Ike that same year and had no power for several weeks, living on MREs handed out by the relief services.

Hurricane Sandy made big news when it slammed into the NE in 2012 so I don’t know where you get your good news info from but there were around 9 hurricanes that hit the US mainland during 2006 and 2016.



https://eu.usatoday.com/story/weather/2017/08/24/all-hurricanes-hit-u-s-since-2005/598113001/

Hurricane Sandy: Oct. 2012, Superstorm Sandy, the largest Atlantic system on record, slammed into New Jersey. It was the deadliest hurricane to hit the northeastern U.S. in 40 years and the second-costliest in the nation's history.

 

[Montecfo]

I was living in Baton Rouge during Gustav in 2008 and evacuated after 3 days of no power, and the chemical site I worked at shutdown for 2 weeks because of damage.

Our son in Houston was hit even harder by hurricane Ike that same year and had no power for several weeks, living on MREs handed out by the relief services.

Hurricane Sandy made big news when it slammed into the NE in 2012 so I don’t know where you get your good news info from but there were around 9 hurricanes that hit the US mainland during 2006 and 2016.



https://eu.usatoday.com/story/weather/2017/08/24/all-hurricanes-hit-u-s-since-2005/598113001/

A category 3 or higher is considered "major". Ike and Gustav were Category 2 hurricanes at US landfall. Sandy was not classified as a hurricane when it made landfall in the US.

I agree that tropical storms and hurricanes of all.classificarions are destructive.

 

[Car-Guy]

A category 3 or higher is considered "major". Ike and Gustav were Category 2 hurricanes at US landfall. Sandy was not classified as a hurricane when it made landfall in the US.

I agree that tropical storms and hurricanes of all.classificarions are destructive.

I don't know how many storms I've been through in my life, but it's been a lot (Including hurricane Carla in 61)... In my little area of the world, Ike was the worse by far from a damage and disruption perspective.

 

[Alan]

I don't know how many storms I've been through in my life, but it's been a lot (Including hurricane Carla in 61)... In my little area of the world, Ike was the worse by far from a damage and disruption perspective.

Exactly, it is size and damage that is a major storm. And Montefco also seems to deny that “super storm Sandy” was a huge storm that was also category 3 during the period he categorically states had no major hurricanes. I give up.

 

[Montecfo]

Exactly, it is size and damage that is a major storm. And Montefco also seems to deny that “super storm Sandy” was a huge storm that was also category 3 during the period he categorically states had no major hurricanes. I give up.

Don't blame.me, blame the scientists. They define hurricanes classified as Cat 3 and higher to be "major hurricanes".

Sandy did not make US landfall as a hurricane, much less a CAT 3. Again, this is what the scientists say. That does not mean that it was not destructive.

https://www.climatecentral.org/news/nws-confirms-sandy-was-not-a-hurricane-at-landfall-15589#:~:text=In%20a%20technical%20report%20released,it%20made%20landfall%20on%20Oct.

 

[Koolau]

Perhaps specifically in the gulf, but it does appear that the number of storms are increasing in these parts.

Though we had one really close brush with a Cat 1 this year, otherwise, it's been pretty quiet in Mid Pacific. A year or two ago we had a big storm season (I think 3 just missed Big Island where my Son was living). This year, just the one. SO, concentrated storm activity does seem to move around - I'm sure el and la nina make a big difference. I just get concerned when folks panic thinking "the end is near" because we have a bad season in the Gulf this year or the Mid Pacific last year (You should have seen it here! There wasn't a bottle of water to be found on the Island all summer - must have been those darn tourists!). This year, not so much. (Thanks, W2R and the Gulf for taking the pressure off of us! - You can stop the Gulf storms now, storm-gods!)

Let's all just hope next year the storm gods pick on some other spot besides the gulf (heh, heh, and the Mid Pacific, please). OH, and may Covid just be a fading bad memory while I'm thinking about it.

 

[W2R]

Let's all just hope next year the storm gods pick on some other spot besides the gulf (heh, heh, and the Mid Pacific, please). OH, and may Covid just be a fading bad memory while I'm thinking about it.

Thanks!

Actually I have a hunch that 2021 is going to be a terrific year in so many respects, especially with 2020 as our basis of comparison.

 

[Dtail]

You mean half as many as this year?

2005 had 28, 2006 had 10. People prognosticating very busy hurricane seasons based on 2005 would have been wrong.

And we had no major hurricanes landfalling on the US mainland for 11 years from 2006-16 the longest such period in history. Again, I doubt armchair prognosticators would have predicted that, scientists certainly didn't.

15+ storms for 5 years running qualifies as busy seasons.
Exactly what is your deal with tropical events? You have been called out by more than one member as effectively discounting the effects of these storms, even if the meteorologists have overstated the severity of some storms.
Or is it a deeper meaning for you as to relating to climate change concepts?

 

[audreyh1]

The projected track once Eta approaches Florida keeps turning more westward. Is it going to end up doing a 180?

 

[Koolau]

Thanks!

Actually I have a hunch that 2021 is going to be a terrific year in so many respects, especially with 2020 as our basis of comparison.

Talking to DW I almost said "2021 can't get any worse" - but I stopped myself!

I recall saying "It can't get any worse" early in my c@reer. Turns out, it could. Fortunately, it eventually got way better. Then I found out about FIRE and then most days were better but YMMV.

 

[W2R]

The projected track once Eta approaches keeps turning more westward. Is it going to end up doing a 180?

Seems it's become quite disorganized and may be in the process of re-forming further to the west, with perhaps a shift in path turning more towards the central Gulf.

 

[Koolau]

15+ storms for 5 years running qualifies as busy seasons.
Exactly what is your deal with tropical events? You have been called out by more than one member as effectively discounting the effects of these storms, even if the meteorologists have overstated the severity of some storms.
Or is it a deeper meaning for you as to relating to climate change concepts?

I guess I would turn the question around a bit. What is your deal? We all know and accept this has been a terrible year to live in the gulf - especially around NOLA. I don't think I've heard anyone dispute that. We've all worried about and prayed for W2R.

JoeWras points out in 235 that hurricane numbers and intensity seem to run in cycles longer than many human memories. Therefore what seems "unusual" may well be a repetition of something your parents or grand parents would have remembered. We don't know why this happens, but the same cycle time seem to apply to large areas of drought. I recall 1965 to 1975 being an unusually bad 10 years for tornadoes in the midwest (mentioned elsewhere - one tornado through the front yard one year, another tornado through the back yard the next year. We didn't move and there have been none since in that specific area.)

It could be sun activity, some natural ocean ebb-flow situation, yes, it might even be (well,you know) but then again, even the experts don't really know.

Bad as 2021 is (in certain areas) I just think we need to be cautious about making significant conclusions about causation because YMMV.

 

[Aerides]

Talking to DW I almost said "2021 can't get any worse" - but I stopped myself!

Bad as 2021 is (in certain areas)...

(it's still - unfortunately - 2020)