I think they are more of a momentum stock, that today's buyers are mostly traders, with a few true believers willing to hold for a decade plus.
Indeed, but what if you could just hold through the ups and downs? One thing I've learned along the way is that the longer you hold a company, the more you can learn about it.
I first invested in Tesla in mid 2012; they had one very expensive, though good looking, car on their website at the time and not much of a charging network. They had also published a blog post called "The Secret Tesla Motors Master Plan" dated August 2nd, 2006 that I thought was certainly interesting and prompted my investment. I bought a tiny position knowing full well that it could go to zero but I liked Musk's vision. That plan was updated in 2016 and is titled "Master Plan, Part Deux" if anyone want's to Google it.
One big difference between Tesla and the OEM's is that they can and do rapidly change. Sandy Munro has done tear downs of the Model S, Model 3 and Model Y. Interestingly, he tore down two Model Y's three months apart and in that three month period, Tesla had changed (significantly improved) the build. As Sandy likes to say, "Tesla moves at the speed of thought" and it seems to be true. Their other secret sauce is in "building the machine that builds the machine" - Google that if interested.
Another big difference between Tesla and the OEM's is that Tesla does not even want to be a "car company", that was just their starting point. They are an energy and AI company ...and yes, I know many scoff at that.
One big question is this; is Tesla causing an automotive paradigm shift? Tony Seba thinks they are. I certainly don't know for sure but clearly, OEM's are finally taking notice and moving towards creating EV's. Tesla does not need to corner the car market, that was never the point.
Anyway, I've not sold a single share and my tiny, speculative 2012 position is no longer tiny. While traders do cause a lot of volatility and I would not be surprised if there is a pull back after the S&P 500 inclusion but I also think that's just noise. I'm willing to hold and see what happens. A black Swan event would absolutely be unpleasant but would not kill my retirement. I do think Tesla has possibly moved beyond a Black Swan risk level.
We shall see...