Anyone else a Tesla investor?

[bobandsherry]

You finally got me to look at Tesla's free cash flow. It was $1.4B for Q3 2020. If they can keep that up, $10B/year is only a few years away. Like when Cybertruck and Semi are being mass produced in a couple of years.

Did you look at what made up the free cash flow? Tesla received $397 million from sales of emission credits, pure profit to the bottom line and cash flow. I don't see this as auto makers begin to sell their own EV cars. That may also impact their ability to continue growth with more options from other auto makers. I guess time will tell.

 

[oneill225]

Did you look at what made up the free cash flow? Tesla received $397 million from sales of emission credits, pure profit to the bottom line and cash flow. I don't see this as auto makers begin to sell their own EV cars. That may also impact their ability to continue growth with more options from other auto makers. I guess time will tell.

Those credits will continue through the end of next year (2021) as per the three year agreement with Fiat. Honda also just agreed to pool their credits with Tesla, as well (in other words, Honda will also pay Tesla).

By the end of 2021, Tesla will have at least three more plants producing vehicles around the world, so the impact of losing credits should be negligible (if they are not continued). The credit money that Tesla is receiving is a good news story for the company and TSLA stock, not a hit, as many Tesla bears would have you believe.

 

[triangle]

Alas, we're already in that mess.
Level 1 (120VAC) not very fast, but most cars can plug into one.

Level 2 (240VDC)
Teslas can use the J-1772 plug, and so can most others. Not very fast, but useful.

Level 3 (fast DC)

• Teslas have a proprietary plug for their Superchargers.
• Japanese cars tend to favor the CHAdeMO plug, as do a few others.
• VW will use the CCS plug, which is kind of a hybrid, and other makers are also getting into this standard.

Sounds like no vehicle maker is doing the swap-out battery packs to make refilling as quick as pumping a tank of gasoline? I might imagine this is because of the extra costs involved to man the stations and no one wanting to be on the recipient of a chemically diminished battery.

Still long term I wonder if it will not happen. Consumers don't really like proprietary batteries and chargers and as long as things physically fit, a market could develop over the long term for some kind of interchangeable batteries. To match whatever the car's onboard inverter needed to power the motor.

 

[oneill225]

Sounds like no vehicle maker is doing the swap-out battery packs to make refilling as quick as pumping a tank of gasoline? I might imagine this is because of the extra costs involved to man the stations and no one wanting to be on the recipient of a chemically diminished battery.

Still long term I wonder if it will not happen. Consumers don't really like proprietary batteries and chargers and as long as things physically fit, a market could develop over the long term for some kind of interchangeable batteries. To match whatever the car's onboard inverter needed to power the motor.

I have seen no mention of swap-out batteries for EVs. In fact, Tesla is going the opposite direction by incorporating the batteries into the structure of the car or truck. Those batteries will last the life-time of the vehicle.

The only setting I can envision for a quick swap would be for commercial trucking, but as battery range continues to increase and charging times continue to decrease, that advantage becomes less viable. Maybe NASCAR will swap batteries when racing goes electric.

The big benefit of EV power is how cheap and simple distribution is as compared to gas or diesel. Swapping batteries would drive cost through the roof for very little benefit.

Most people will charge their EV at home while they sleep. Unless you are driving more than 300 miles, there would be no need for a labor intensive battery swap. For those who need to travel more than 300 miles, a charge can be combined with a driving break to eat and stretch legs. Fast chargers can get you back on the road in 15-30 minutes and that time is continually being reduced.

 

[NW-Bound]

Sounds like no vehicle maker is doing the swap-out battery packs to make refilling as quick as pumping a tank of gasoline? I might imagine this is because of the extra costs involved to man the stations and no one wanting to be on the recipient of a chemically diminished battery.

Still long term I wonder if it will not happen. Consumers don't really like proprietary batteries and chargers and as long as things physically fit, a market could develop over the long term for some kind of interchangeable batteries. To match whatever the car's onboard inverter needed to power the motor.

In 2013, Tesla demonstrated its ability to swap out a battery in 90 seconds. "Faster than you can fill a gas tank" is how Musk described it. It was an impressive feat.

We then heard not much about it after that, and Tesla dropped this idea and pushed forward with building a supercharger network. It was said that Straubel, CTO of Tesla and one of the original founders of the company even before Musk showed up, talked Musk out of the battery swapping.

When the battery assembly weighs 1200 lbs and is built very specifically for each car model (it takes up nearly the entire underside of the car), it is not as simple as swapping out the 12V battery of an ICE car, despite the demonstration that Tesla made.

If and when technology can make a battery small and light enough, perhaps we can see a universal battery that is interchangeable between different cars. I don't believe I will see such a battery in my life, and I have perhaps another 20 years.

 

[Zathras]

In 2013, Tesla demonstrated its ability to swap out a battery in 90 seconds. "Faster than you can fill a gas tank" is how Musk described it. It was an impressive feat.

We then heard not much about it after that, and Tesla dropped this idea and pushed forward with building a supercharger network. ...

Tesla created a battery swap station in between San Francisco and L.A. as I recall.
Drivers had a choice of charging for free, or doing a battery swap for about the cost of a tank of gas.
Almost nobody used the battery swap station.

Battery swap stations are a logistical and cost nightmare. To support battery swap stations you need about three times the number of battery packs than you would for the cars themselves. There are a myriad of other issues, but that sunk cost is the biggest.

 

[Animorph]

IIRC Tesla battery swapping was all about qualifying for some type of monetary benefit for the company. To do that they had to demonstrate they could do a battery swap in a short period of time. Once demonstrated, they weren't required to actually make it a widespread option.

While it sounded cool, it would have taken a lot of investment and cost to implement. And Tesla has been battery-limited for the most part. They never wanted to create 1000 swapping stations with 10 spare batteries at each one when that could be 10,000 new cars sold instead.

The reality is our average charge stop on long road trips is 30 min after two hours of driving. That's a great pace for us. It'll get get faster in the future, but we're not in a big rush.

 

[Christine]

While battery swapping sounds cool it's an expensive way to get a slight benefit.


With my EV I charge at home 90% of the time. And when I go for a long drive i can easily enough time the charging with the breaks I would have taken with any car.


So a swap would have been useful for me something between once a year to once every 5 years. And to implement and run this Tesla would have had to increase the cost of charging or buying the car. Not worth the hassle IMHO.

 

[triangle]

Without understanding the details (no experience with EV cars) I can appreciate the challenge of battery swapping and keeping a ready supply in stock. However I think it is a solvable engineering problem that could be automated to a great extent if there was sufficient consumer demand and anything approaching a standard battery pack. Though there is competitive disincentive for manufacturers to standardize on any specific form factor.

From what I am reading here, current owners no longer have range anxiety? Especially in colder months and after a few years on the battery? If I were an EV maker looking at how people like to buy full sized trucks and large SUVs more for just-in-case-i-need-it rather than their weekly needs it would still be a worry. Maybe in the short term a two car family will have an EV for local trips and an ICE/hybrid for road trips and visiting relatives living in other states. While I would not need the range, I can hardly imagine a family having to wait a long time at charging station with children in the car.

 

[Christine]

From what I am reading here, current owners no longer have range anxiety? Especially in colder months and after a few years on the battery?

I've never had that with my EV. But I have had it with my old Diesel car. When I need to charge I get a live map of the chargers on the car screen and can plan my trip accordingly. Never had to stress with charging - not even when I drove down to Spain on holiday. The car keeps you constantly updated on range left and distance to your destination.

A few years ago driving my diesel on holiday in Spain I had the worst range anxiety. Drove on a 4 lane main road by the coast. And the meter got closer and closer to the read line and no gas stations or anything really for ages. When the meter passed the red line with a couple of millimetres I started to plan how to call for towing. But then - like in a movie or something - a petrol station sign showed up. I was running empty enough that I wasn't sure I'd make it to the gas station but I did. I definately had a pulse then!

 

[NW-Bound]

Without understanding the details (no experience with EV cars) I can appreciate the challenge of battery swapping and keeping a ready supply in stock. However I think it is a solvable engineering problem that could be automated to a great extent if there was sufficient consumer demand and anything approaching a standard battery pack. Though there is competitive disincentive for manufacturers to standardize on any specific form factor...

Maybe some time in the future, we will have a standardized battery. Or perhaps that will happen when Tesla becomes the only car maker in the world.

But right now, you can see the current state of the art in EV battery in the video below, where a Tesla S has its battery removed for repair by an after-market service garage (non-Tesla).

A bit of background: This Tesla S has its battery comprised of 7104 cells, wired in groups of 74 cells in parallel, and then 96 groups are wired in series. One of the 7000+ cells failed, developed high discharge, and drained the power of its 73 cohorts. The car had 140k miles, hence exceeded its 120k miles warranty. Tesla wanted $20K to replace the battery. This independent garage was able to open up the battery to find the bad cell and disable it. The cost was only $5K.

In the video below, you will see that this 1200-lb battery is about as big as a queen-sized mattress.

 

[NW-Bound]

A few years ago driving my diesel on holiday in Spain I had the worst range anxiety...

Here in the US and Canada, motorists use a phone app called Gasbuddy. It shows all the gas stations on a map, and the prices that they charge.

It worked well for me during the 10,000-mi RV trip to Alaska and back. Well, except for the time I was in Skagway (long story, but suffice to say I was not stranded).

 

[oneill225]

Without understanding the details (no experience with EV cars) I can appreciate the challenge of battery swapping and keeping a ready supply in stock. However I think it is a solvable engineering problem that could be automated to a great extent if there was sufficient consumer demand and anything approaching a standard battery pack. Though there is competitive disincentive for manufacturers to standardize on any specific form factor.

From what I am reading here, current owners no longer have range anxiety? Especially in colder months and after a few years on the battery? If I were an EV maker looking at how people like to buy full sized trucks and large SUVs more for just-in-case-i-need-it rather than their weekly needs it would still be a worry. Maybe in the short term a two car family will have an EV for local trips and an ICE/hybrid for road trips and visiting relatives living in other states. While I would not need the range, I can hardly imagine a family having to wait a long time at charging station with children in the car.

No one is working on a swappable battery for EVs because there is no compelling or competitive reason to do so. Improving battery tech has rendered any such notion worthless for non-commercial (and likely commercial) EVs.

Consider that the range for the Tesla Model S is now over 400 miles and many older Teslas are still going strong with 200,000+ miles on the odometer. Some have claimed to have gone over 400,000 miles on the original battery pack.

Superchargers and other charging networks are plentiful and (relatively) quick for long-trips. This is the current Tesla network and it is expanding, as I write:

https://www.tesla.com/supercharger

Charging takes from 15-30 minutes at one of these superchargers. Unless you are trying to turn cross-country driving breaks into a NASCAR pitstop, I see no benefit to a costly battery swapping network; Do you?

Regarding Tesla stock, I will be buying more on the next dip. The China factory (Giga Shanghai) is on the verge of mass producing the most popular Tesla, the Model Y cross-over. Possibly, as soon as January. The closest competition for a while will be VW and their Id.4. I have also bought a little bit of VWAGY as a hedge.

 

[r3saving]

A few years ago driving my diesel on holiday in Spain I had the worst range anxiety. Drove on a 4 lane main road by the coast. And the meter got closer and closer to the read line and no gas stations or anything really for ages. When the meter passed the red line with a couple of millimetres I started to plan how to call for towing. But then - like in a movie or something - a petrol station sign showed up. I was running empty enough that I wasn't sure I'd make it to the gas station but I did. I definately had a pulse then!

A smidge off topic but if I may ask; did you find that you needed any connector types other than those that come with the car? I'm about to take a rather long road trip and it appears that where there are no supercharges, I'll be able to use the J1772 connector. The thought in my head is what the heck would I do if any of those J1772 chargers aren't in working condition. Did you find that you needed any of the variety of connectors Tesla sells on their website? I hate to waste money on those if they're unnecessary.

Thank you,
r3

 

[MRG]

A smidge off topic but if I may ask; did you find that you needed any connector types other than those that come with the car? I'm about to take a rather long road trip and it appears that where there are no supercharges, I'll be able to use the J1772 connector. The thought in my head is what the heck would I do if any of those J1772 chargers aren't in working condition. Did you find that you needed any of the variety of connectors Tesla sells on their website? I hate to waste money on those if they're unnecessary.

Thank you,
r3

Not who you asked but in addition to the J1772 that came with my Y I purchased a NEMA 14-50 that allows you to charge at campgrounds and dryer/welder plugs. I have a home Tesla charger and keep the factory supplied 110 adapter and cable in the vehicle.

In our little town we have two level J1772 chargers and two CCS/CHAdeMO higher speed chargers. We park in this location when we walk the river so I can sample who is using what. The level two J1772 chargers are often used, but seldom queued. I actually saw one person using the CCS/CHAdeMO charger with a Model S and his $450 adapter. I spoke with him, he spends a lot of time in remote areas and said these help him occasionally. According to the gentleman who helped the town partner with Chargepoint I saw the first and only use of that charger.

I'm not getting anymore than the NEMA at this time. Check your route with A Better Route Planner app and utilize Chargepoint to see non supercharger stations.

 

[r3saving]

Not who you asked but in addition to the J1772 that came with my Y I purchased a NEMA 14-50 that allows you to charge at campgrounds and dryer/welder plugs. I have a home Tesla charger and keep the factory supplied 110 adapter and cable in the vehicle.

In our little town we have two level J1772 chargers and two CCS/CHAdeMO higher speed chargers. We park in this location when we walk the river so I can sample who is using what. The level two J1772 chargers are often used, but seldom queued. I actually saw one person using the CCS/CHAdeMO charger with a Model S and his $450 adapter. According to the gentleman who helped the town partner with Chargepoint I saw the first and only use of the charger. I spoke with the S guy, he spends a lot of time in remote areas and said these help him.

I'm not getting anymore than the NEMA at this time. Check your route with A Better Route Planner app and utilize Chargepoint to see non supercharger stations.

Thank you very much for sharing your experience. I actually use a NEMA 14-50 adaptor for home charging knowing that I'd take that with me for any road trips so it seems I'm all set. I was a little confused about the NEMA adaptor bundle on Tesla's website having no idea whether to not the need for any of those would be necessary. Extra glad to know that I most likely would not need the CHAdeMO I'll check A Better Route Planner to be certain though; thank you for that. Thus far, I've only checked Plug Share.

 

[Christine]

Here in the US and Canada, motorists use a phone app called Gasbuddy. It shows all the gas stations on a map, and the prices that they charge.

It worked well for me during the 10,000-mi RV trip to Alaska and back. Well, except for the time I was in Skagway (long story, but suffice to say I was not stranded).

Thank you - I have such an app on my phone now. Lesson learned and all that.

 

[Christine]

A smidge off topic but if I may ask; did you find that you needed any connector types other than those that come with the car? I'm about to take a rather long road trip and it appears that where there are no supercharges, I'll be able to use the J1772 connector. The thought in my head is what the heck would I do if any of those J1772 chargers aren't in working condition. Did you find that you needed any of the variety of connectors Tesla sells on their website? I hate to waste money on those if they're unnecessary.

Thank you,
r3

I live in Europe so connectors may be different. I do have a type 2 cable which is the most popular in Europe for slow public charging. And a Chademo adapter since that used to be the most popular plug for faster public charging.



But I need those very infrequently. What I use the most outside home/super-charging is the charging cable Tesla supplied me with for charging from the ordinary socket most houses have outside. I use this ie. when visiting my mum.

 

[r3saving]

I live in Europe so connectors may be different. I do have a type 2 cable which is the most popular in Europe for slow public charging. And a Chademo adapter since that used to be the most popular plug for faster public charging.

But I need those very infrequently. What I use the most outside home/super-charging is the charging cable Tesla supplied me with for charging from the ordinary socket most houses have outside. I use this ie. when visiting my mum.

Thank you very much, helpful indeed.

 

[Blue531]

Tesla share price up to $657 after hours Dec. 8, 2020. Will probably go up some more over the next seven or eight days just before they move into S and P 500. Could pull back after, but another earnings call due around January 22nd, 2021.

 

[ExFlyBoy5]

Tesla share price up to $657 after hours Dec. 8, 2020. Will probably go up some more over the next seven or eight days just before they move into S and P 500. Could pull back after, but another earnings call due around January 22nd, 2021.

I have to admit, I put some play money in TSLA not too long ago. I will let it ride for a bit and will take 1/3 off the table when it's gone up 1/3 which at this rate, will be this week.

 

[Dash man]

I have to admit, I put some play money in TSLA not too long ago. I will let it ride for a bit and will take 1/3 off the table when it's gone up 1/3 which at this rate, will be this week.

Me too. I bought 100 shares at $406 just before the announcement they would join the S&P500. I’d been considering it for a while and finally pulled the trigger. I also started buying NIO at $11 and have already pulled out my initial investment and letting the profits go a bit longer.

 

[Time2]

On my walk today, I was listening to a podcast and it said GM sells 7.7M vehicles (2.9M in the US) a year while Tesla sells 368k vehicles. It then went on to say that Tesla has market capitalization larger than GM. I just Googled to get numbers, 623.8B vs $62.7B, Tesla is 10 times larger!

2019 profits for GM were $8.4B,

Tesla, well, they lost $862M.
Value is clearly in the expectations of stock purchasers.

 

[Ready]

On my walk today, I was listening to a podcast and it said GM sells 7.7M vehicles (2.9M in the US) a year while Tesla sells 368k vehicles. It then went on to say that Tesla has market capitalization larger than GM. I just Googled to get numbers, 623.8B vs $62.7B, Tesla is 10 times larger!

2019 profits for GM were $8.4B,

Tesla, well, they lost $862M.
Value is clearly in the expectations of stock purchasers.

Because based on today's valuations the market is looking at Tesla as the next Amazon and GM as the next Sears.

And as crazy as that sounds, it was not that long ago that Amazon was losing a lot of money and Sears was still very profitable.

 

[oneill225]

Because based on today's valuations the market is looking at Tesla as the next Amazon and GM as the next Sears.

And as crazy as that sounds, it was not that long ago that Amazon was losing a lot of money and Sears was still very profitable.

Well said.