For the first time ever I sold all my stocks

[gayl]

I did not touch my taxable account

 

[harllee]

Has anyone sold much or all of their stock investments even if they were in taxable accounts?

No, all of the stocks I sold were in my IRA. I had been using stocks in my taxable account for charitable gifts so they were all gone.

 

[Sunset]

Has anyone sold much or all of their stock investments even if they were in taxable accounts?

Only sold a bunch in my non-taxable accounts.
Couldn't face the capital gain if I sold in regular accounts, turned out to be quite a benefit.

 

[Golden sunsets]

I bought more stock in our taxable accounts in March and sold nothing in our IRA's.

 

[ownyourfuture]

Has anyone sold much or all of their stock investments even if they were in taxable accounts?

I haven't sold any, but I'd like to, especially my gains in shares I've held under 2 years. Amazon, ConAgra, Tesla, etc.

I could handle the capital gain taxes, but doing so would put me over the income cliff attached to my health care insurance

 

[pb4uski]

Has anyone sold much or all of their stock investments even if they were in taxable accounts?

Yes, but 87% of the gains will fit into the 0% capital gains tax bracket... just 13% of my total gains will be taxed at 15%.

 

[MasterP]

Has anyone sold much or all of their stock investments even if they were in taxable accounts?

I did. I have been lurking here for over 10 years, but first time posting. On Jan 1st I sold all my taxable investments (about 350k). Then on Feb 24th I sold all my tax deferred funds (little over a million) and went to money market. I paid of my mortgage and a second property (about 500k together) using the $ from selling taxable, some of the cash on hand and income from this year. Cars will be paid off second week of October and I will be debt free. NW will be over $2mil by year end, an all time high (counting real estate and primary residence). I am 39, and the current target for FIRE is at 51. No regrets selling, and have no plan to get back in anytime soon.

 

[COcheesehead]

The market was down 35%+... I wouldn’t be paying things off, I would be selling things off to invest more and I did. All time net worth now, adding almost half a million more to my pile this year.

 

[Katsmeow]

More like those who tried timing and it didn't work out YET, do not post - which would still be untrue since many here have strayed from their asset allocations and admitted it. There's no sense in regular posting on the subject and thereby encouraging the grief that follows, like being called a loser. I believe that both positions on the issue will have their day to gloat. Glad you are enjoying yours.

1. If market timing works at all, it works for a relatively small percentage of investors. Most of us will not be able to get it right, much less get it right consistently, over a long period of time.

2. If market timing works, then it is unlikely most of us can be successful making decisions based on "feelings." And even if someone could, there's no way to measure it objectively to determine why a timing decision worked, or didn't work. At best, there is a large element of chance involved, because none of us can actually predict future events.

3. It's perfectly O.K. to sell out of stocks at any time if one already has "enough" money and prefers not to take the risk of equities. Whether or not that will prove to be a financially optimal decision is pure guesswork. The issue then becomes whether there will be seller's remorse if the timing turns out to be wrong. Hopefully not.
....

I think you have missed a possibility. Yes, yes, I agree about market timing not usually working out.

But, sometimes people change their asset allocation. I mean very few people will have the same asset allocation at 25 as they have at 75. Things change. I have noticed that if people change their asset allocation during a recession (or close to it) people call that market timing. But maybe it is changing their asset allocation.

For a long time I had a 60/40 allocation and a few years ago went to more 50/50. I was considering changing to 45/55 right when the unpleasantness started. I was worried about market timing so just did nothing for a few months then I decided to go ahead and make the switch to 45/55. The reason I was doing this was just looking at our age mostly (DH is 72 and I am a few years younger).

As the market went back up of course that was fine. Eventually I was back where I had been before all this and that was fine. But this who event has changed some of my assessment. It makes me not trust my won allocation. I am one of those who feel that the high stock market valuations now are questionable if not irrational by any logical standard. I have always believed in keeping equities in retirement and still do believe that. But, I realized that the market is less tethered to economic reality than I thought it was. So I decided a couple of days go to switch to a 40/60 allocation.

Some would call that market timing. I don't. It is a change in my asset allocation. I expect that change to be permanent.

 

[Poopycat]

What a crazy time we are living in. Portfolio dropped off a cliff in March. Yesterday, it hit an all-time high. A $600K swing in less than 6 months.

I’m not getting complacent. I’m expecting a big tumble at some point, probably around election time.

 

[Closet_Gamer]

Has anyone sold much or all of their stock investments even if they were in taxable accounts?

Executed tax loss harvesting during the downturn but spun right around and put the money into similar funds to keep it all in the market. Pushed extra cash into the market for 3 months when things were down.

Feels good right now...but honestly I don't see how this lasts.

The market is a forward looking mechanism but right now it seems to be using some type of over the horizon super-duper magnifying glass focused on about 10 companies.

Mean reversion is a beast.

 

[pb4uski]

...Feels good right now...but honestly I don't see how this lasts.

The market is a forward looking mechanism but right now it seems to be using some type of over the horizon super-duper magnifying glass focused on about 10 companies.

Mean reversion is a beast.

It seems to be fewer than 10... perhaps a half a dozen at most.

 

[COcheesehead]

The market will correct at some point and everyone in this thread who has been waiting for it will say “see told you so”, but from what level? The market is already double digit percentage above where some said they sold. It still likely will go higher from here.

I’ve been adding since late March, trimming a little just last week while rebalancing. The gains over that time frame have been outstanding.

 

[Fermion]

This has been a great year for market timing or whatever all of us have been doing. We have a taxable account that I swing trade. My wife calls it the magic account. No matter how much I take out, it refills like magic.

 

[Toocold]

Over the past 2 weeks, the volatility has gone way down. I like it this way.

 

[Markola]

Not that the CAPE 10 is a crystal ball, or that we will make any moves, but these high S&P 500 prices keep on climbing. Hopefully, the Earnings half of the equation will fatten in 2021 as the world consumes again, which will tug this line downward or at least flatten it.

 

[foxfirev5]

Much as I take exception to Jack Bogle's proclamation just prior to March 2009 that" you have to sell when you can't afford to lose anymore": I am a Boglehead for the most part.

Nobody knows Nothin'. My 40/60 AA has grown quite a bit but I'm still within my rebalance bands. (established by me who knows nothing)

 

[Montecfo]

Not that the CAPE 10 is a crystal ball, or that we will make any moves, but these high S&P 500 prices keep on climbing. Hopefully, the Earnings half of the equation will fatten in 2021 as the world consumes again, which will tug this line downward or at least flatten it.

View attachment 37208

Yes we will likely get higher earnings as easy comparisons are coming. And for a variety of reasons I think 2021 is setting up as a really good year for stocks. And I do agree Cape10 is not a useful timing mechanism.

But this is starting to give me pause: the possibility of higher interest rates. As the vaccines and herd immunity steadily quell the virus, the economy will open more.broadly, hiring will grow and massive pent up demand will be released.

Which all sounds fantastic. BUT.....

If interest rates tick up much, then the implicit values of equities (especially long runway secular growth) will decline in kind.

After a fabulous last few years, this concern does make me think about lightening on equities.

 

[audreyh1]

Not that the CAPE 10 is a crystal ball, or that we will make any moves, but these high S&P 500 prices keep on climbing. Hopefully, the Earnings half of the equation will fatten in 2021 as the world consumes again, which will tug this line downward or at least flatten it.

View attachment 37208

One big problem with that site, and recent CAPE10 calcs in general, is that the earnings data is way, way behind. Like the last S&P 500 earnings is for June 30. That’s a 6 month lag! Recent points on the graph are using the June data AFAIK. So we don’t actually know what the last 6 months graph looks like. I think the earnings data is coming from Shiller.

 

[big-papa]

One big problem with that site, and recent CAPE10 calcs in general, is that the earnings data is way, way behind. Like the last S&P 500 earnings is for June 30. That’s a 6 month lag! Recent points on the graph are using the June data AFAIK. So we don’t actually know what the last 6 months graph looks like. I think the earnings data is coming from Shiller.

Shiller's own spreadsheet has correct calculations through October. There are calculations for both November and December, but if you select the column with the CAPE calculation you'll see that it's including some blank data for those two months in the calculation. Through October, it's 31.27 So with Shiller's website, only about 2 months of slippage.
Shiller's spreadsheet doesn't even have a point that matches what's in Multpl's website's number (34.19) so I'm guessing they have some sort of extrapolation going on.

Online Data - Robert Shiller

Cheers.

 

[DrRoy]

2020 was the greatest example of why it is a loser's game to try and time the market. Who would have believed how the markets acted this year??

 

[CSdot]

2020 was the greatest example of why it is a loser's game to try and time the market. Who would have believed how the markets acted this year??

Yep. OP is in her late 60s, so I will not second guess her decision as she felt it appropriate for her family. After reading her responses in the earlier posts, sounds like she has done well investing over the years, so her decision that 2020 was a good time to move to a more conservative approach is one I imagine most can understand.

I’ll admit to questioning my decision to stay in the market more than once during the 2020 roller coaster, but with my wife's encouragement, I decided to stay the course. I just turned 51, so I have more time before I can even considering touching my retirement account, but it went up 22.78% for the year and has gotten to the size that I am more comfortable with the prospect that I may one day be able to afford to retire on something more than SS and government cheese. My non-retirement stock account went up 50% in 2020. Real estate values according to Zillow are up some, but not like my stock accounts. My cautious nature has me sitting on too much cash. Guess I was hoping for another RE correction so I could buy another investment property, but that hasn't happened. Around November I gave up some hope of a RE correction and took $170K I had in cash and paid off my home mortgage. I can say for the first time in many years that I have zero debt. That is something good that came from 2020.

 

[VanWinkle]

2020 was the greatest example of why it is a loser's game to try and time the market. Who would have believed how the markets acted this year??

Sometimes, the memory is fleeting and reality is altered to fit the narrative.

 

[harllee]

OP here--don't want folks to worry about me. On November 8 (won't say what the significance of that date was) I got back in the stock market because I thought things were looking up for the economy. Since I am 69 and don't need or want to take too much risk I stayed with a very conservative allocation. Thanks to everyone and HAPPY NEW YEAR! 2021 has to better than 2020.

 

[VanWinkle]

OP here--don't want folks to worry about me. On November 8 (won't say what the significance of that date was) I got back in the stock market because I thought things were looking up for the economy. Since I am 69 and don't need or want to take too much risk I stayed with a very conservative allocation. Thanks to everyone and HAPPY NEW YEAR! 2021 has to better than 2020.

Happy New Year to you harllee!!

Best to you in 2021,

VW