For the first time ever I sold all my stocks

[harllee]

I started this thread and I sold in May, just sitting on my cash now. I think there is a long way to go and I am afraid we are just starting to see the economic downturn. I really do not see any economic positives.

 

[TechLead]

I started this thread and I sold in May, just sitting on my cash now. I think there is a long way to go and I am afraid we are just starting to see the economic downturn. I really do not see any economic positives.

You are very likely (almost certainly) correct.
Question is what is future of USD compared to value of other assets.

That future looks very dim.

 

[Brat]

I came back in and purchased VUG and Fidelity Blue Chip Growth fund which have done very well. O was way down so bought a little; it has come up a lot, didn't want to be a pig so put in a limit order today. SMH, a semiconductor ETF has done well not withstanding INTEL's implosion, I guess someone has to make those chips.

I had kept Wellington and added some Fidelity Balanced - the first has done well this year, Balanced is plodding along but I purchased it after the implosion.

Now shopping for JNJ and more KMB.

Bonds are yielding nothing so I think it is either growth or dividend stocks going forward.

 

[Toocold]

So my son came to me last week, and said, "Dad, I want to buy AMD. I found out that their new chips are going to be in both all xbox and playstation 5 consoles. Once they are out, I'm positive AMD stock will go up!" I told him that the news has already been priced in, and it's a very expensive stock, based on multiples. I was glad that he was taking an interest so (with a slight snicker) I told him I'd sell some of his VTI and buy AMD, and we can see what happens.

After AMD's run up of almost 40% in a week, I'm learning that Gen Z has a new term called "flexing" and he's been doing alot of that lately. I am willing to admit I know nothing, so who knows how this market will evolve.

 

[COcheesehead]

You are very likely (almost certainly) correct.
Question is what is future of USD compared to value of other assets.

That future looks very dim.

Over what time frame?
Is anything going on now, not already known?
What about when there is a vaccine?

I can make a case for a bad market ahead or a good market ahead. It depends on your timeframe and what you choose to look at. Does it not?

 

[harllee]

Over what time frame?
Is anything going on now, not already known?
What about when there is a vaccine?

I can make a case for a bad market ahead or a good market ahead. It depends on your timeframe and what you choose to look at. Does it not?

The U.S. economy looks very bad to me for the next year or two. I hope I am wrong.

 

[copyright1997reloaded]

So my son came to me last week, and said, "Dad, I want to buy AMD. I found out that their new chips are going to be in both all xbox and playstation 5 consoles. Once they are out, I'm positive AMD stock will go up!" I told him that the news has already been priced in, and it's a very expensive stock, based on multiples. I was glad that he was taking an interest so (with a slight snicker) I told him I'd sell some of his VTI and buy AMD, and we can see what happens.

After AMD's run up of almost 40% in a week, I'm learning that Gen Z has a new term called "flexing" and he's been doing alot of that lately. I am willing to admit I know nothing, so who knows how this market will evolve.

Sometimes, when you think it is priced in, it really isn't. Both on the up side and the down side. That's why I slapped my hand when it tried to sell my long term Apple holding into earnings.

 

[Beachcomber]

I am still 25 % equities when I am normally 45 - 55%. Still have recouped most of the losses.

I got in on AMD when it was less than $5/share. Sold at $25, then back in at $12. Sold again at $57, then back in at $48 with 1,000 shares. It is now around $77 and going to go over $100.

I know quite a few who made a lot of money on it. I only invested modestly, but still managed some nice earnings.

 

[Time2]

The market positive is all the people waiting
to put all that money back into the market.

 

[Toocold]

The market positive is all the people waiting
to put all that money back into the market.

Similar to how I thought a house in cupertino was way too expensive in the late 90s because it was 800k. No way it could be that high, and I decided to wait... and wait... and wait, until I moved out of the bay area.

I still plan to buy a house whenever it goes down to $300k! I'm just not holding my breath.

 

[COcheesehead]

The market positive is all the people waiting
to put all that money back into the market.

 

[COcheesehead]

In round numbers the S&P is up about 15% since the original post.

 

[pb4uski]

^^^^ Great observation if our time horizon was 3 months.

 

[COcheesehead]

^^^^ Great observation if our time horizon was 3 months.

I think you’ve posted that you got (mostly) out as well, so you response makes sense.

That amount of return for me personally adds 3-4 more years to my expense pile. That’s a lot.

Carry on.

 

[gayl]

Of course I would have been better off if I had not reallocated. Tried to correct but did it too late. All that means is I locked in almost a 9% drop.

GS1 had 6k in a new Roth February 10th. Did nothing. Is at $6,165.20

 

[Mr. Tightwad]

In round numbers the S&P is up about 15% since the original post.

I didn't sell and bought more in March (SBUX, SPG). Those that sold might be testy about the subject.

 

[pb4uski]

I think you’ve posted that you got (mostly) out as well, so you response makes sense.

That amount of return for me personally adds 3-4 more years to my expense pile. That’s a lot.

Carry on.

But wouldn't it just bring you back to where you were at the beginning of the year? IOW, compared to the beginning of the year it adds not much to your expense pile.

 

[Speed Racer]

I invested my "emergency fund" back in January. Invested a little more since then and I'm currently up 33% for the year. Never would have thought that when I first put the money in, especially with what has transpired since.

My IRA I started in March (and finished maxing out in early May) is actually doing worse at up 18%, with about half invested in index funds.

 

[COcheesehead]

But wouldn't it just bring you back to where you were at the beginning of the year? IOW, compared to the beginning of the year it adds not much to your expense pile.

No, I bought more in March. When the market is down 35%, you buy, buy, buy. At least according to conventional wisdom and I used aggressive growth funds to do it which are up over 60% from the lows.

I am not smart, just seen this story too many other times. ‘87, ‘90-‘91, ‘00-‘01, 08-‘09... 35% is the average bear market. We hit that. I released the cash hounds. Fear and investing are a bad cocktail.

 

[Vincenzo Corleone]

Since I sold about 35% of our 70% in equities towards the end of February, as of end-of-day yesterday we're less than 0.75% away from our all-time high, even after a bunch of estimated taxes have been paid. I'm retired, but my wife is still working.

Some may say, "Yeah, but if you had stayed the course, you would have been in even better shape". But my objective was not to maximize gains. It was to manage risk. I'm happy. We're now near our all-time high but now with a nice cash cushion. I suppose that someday we'll get back to our 70-75% equity allocation. Just not yet.

 

[Boose]

I told payroll to front load all my 457 paycheck deductions between Jan-Oct 2020, to max it out to $19,500 before ER. I didn't change my mind after COVID-19, so therein lies my dollar-cost averaging!

 

[targatom2019]

No, I bought more in March. When the market is down 35%, you buy, buy, buy. At least according to conventional wisdom and I used aggressive growth funds to do it which are up over 60% from the lows.

I am not smart, just seen this story too many other times. ‘87, ‘90-‘91, ‘00-‘01, 08-‘09... 35% is the average bear market. We hit that. I released the cash hounds. Fear and investing are a bad cocktail.

Yep, went for 60/40 to 96/4 before March low and currently have gained couple years of living expenses. Yep, another new high today !

 

[Vincenzo Corleone]

Since I sold about 35% of our 70% in equities towards the end of February, as of end-of-day yesterday we're less than 0.75% away from our all-time high, even after a bunch of estimated taxes have been paid. I'm retired, but my wife is still working.

Some may say, "Yeah, but if you had stayed the course, you would have been in even better shape". But my objective was not to maximize gains. It was to manage risk. I'm happy. We're now near our all-time high but now with a nice cash cushion. I suppose that someday we'll get back to our 70-75% equity allocation. Just not yet.

Um...yeah...that should read, "Since I sold about half of our 70% in equities...". Our equity allocation is currently at 35%.

 

[gayl]

I just ran this again and bailing out of 800 shares SPY in 2 accounts for a month wasn't as bad as I thought!! If I add back in the 8k I gave to my GS, plus all that I've sunk into cash, I'm only down 6%. If I had done nothing I'd be up --- but I'm okay. Have to be because there's no alternative

 

[RobLJ]

We were camping high in elevation in Eastern Nevada last week, but when I checked this morning, we're a little above where we were after I took out the yearly withdrawal in late January. (I reduced the stock allocation in January, February, and some more in early March. I did rebuy about 2% in the S&P index fund and Total Market March 18 and 20th and the allocation is back up to 43% stock, from a low of about 37% at the low point). I'll take this anyday.
After the slump today I could be back down by a bit, though.
In a month, I may put some cash (2-5%) into Europe/Asia funds since I think they will recover quicker than the US.