The Electric Vehicle Thread

[oneill225]

But the HUGE difference is that you can refuel an ICE car in 5 minutes vs what... 30 minutes at best for an EV using a Level 3 charger if you can find one.

True, but at 3x the cost. If there is an outlet or charger at your destination (more and more common) you can skip the gas station there and charge overnight.

I do not deny that ICE have time advantages over EV on long trips, but not always and the advantage will continue to shrink.

According to Tesla 200 miles can be added in 15 minutes via a supercharger (currently).

 

[TriumphTR3fan]

I have made several long trips since September because of the pandemic. Flying was an option before March of 2020, but we had to change. It is longer in a EV but not by much. We Left Lincoln NE in our EV with two other cars following. It took us two days to arrive at our destination in Oregon, a distance of a little more than 1600 miles. The other vehicles arrived about 90 minutes ahead of us. They drove farther the first day & we left earlier than them the second morning but the time was still fairly close. It helps to be retired & not in a hurry. We charged more frequently than they stopped for gas but it still turned out close in time.
I sound like a Tesla fanboy but I'm rooting for other EV manufacturers to catch up. The Tesla supercharging network has been key to their success. Watching You Tubers charging vehicles other than Tesla is a real eye opener. Standards need to be established so that the charging suppliers can provide a more consistent experience. I won't use the other charging networks not because I'm biased toward Tesla but because they just aren't ready for prime time yet. EV's today are capable of providing the charging networks with all the information needed but the networks aren't doing that yet.
BTW, there is a significant downside to the Tesla Supercharging Network. If you have a salvage titled Tesla you can't use their network. All salvage titles are eliminated because Tesla claims they are concerned about unseen battery damage. It greatly affects the value of wrecked & repaired cars. I haven't heard anything about this issue with other brands & charging networks but it is something to be aware of. If other manufacturers adopt a similar policy the market for salvaged vehicles will probably dry up or owners will be forced to only charge at home. It is a small issue now with few EV's salvaged but it will grow over several years.

 

[JoeWras]

How often are people going on several hundred mile trips these days?

About once per month, and it is almost the only kind of driving I do. I go out very little around town.

My main volunteer activity -- which keeps me sane -- is disaster relief. I go for 3 days about once per month. The trips are usually 190 to 220 miles one way.

We leave early and arrive on site that morning, ready to go. This is the time I don't need range anxiety as the sites are usually in remote rural areas, near the coast, which creates challenges in traversing around the various rivers and bays. I also don't have time to search for fuel at this moment, as we have to meet the team and assess the job. I already leave early enough, I don't need more time built in.

The range issue is real for me. With my Subie, I can usually get about 500 miles doing this kind of highway driving. It is perfect to get there and back. Worst case, I can stop on the way home once I get out of the remote areas.

 

[Midpack]

When charge times get down to the 10-minute mark and chargers are as ubiquitous as gas stations on the interstate, maybe.

EV's will need 400 mile ranges and quick energy renewal before they can replace gasoline completely. The only cars I have found that give me that are Hybrids - 500+ mile driving range and quick energy renewal.

For most drivers it’s not as straightforward as comparing EV range/charge times to ICE range/refueling times in that most EV owners can recharge at home every night - many will have zero time spent looking for a charging station most days. You can’t recharge your ICE car daily at home - ever.

Obviously long trips are another matter. But saying EVs won’t be viable for most drivers unless they can match ICE long trip metrics every day isn’t accurate. The average driver in the US drives less than 30 miles a day most days, and the vast majority travel much less than the range of any Tesla on a given day. Not saying range/charge times isn’t a real issue for some, but recharging will be a non issue for most people most days - and the exceptions know who they are.

EV range is probably already a total non issue for most two car households with the option of owning one ICE and one EV.

 

[pb4uski]

True, but at 3x the cost. If there is an outlet or charger at your destination (more and more common) you can skip the gas station there and charge overnight.

I do not deny that ICE have time advantages over EV on long trips, but not always and the advantage will continue to shrink.

According to Tesla 200 miles can be added in 15 minutes via a supercharger (currently).

If I drive 15,000 miles a year and average 28 mpg and gas costs me $2.75/gallon then that is only $1,473.... I can easily afford that.

Don't get me wrong, I'm rooting for EVs and for people who don't take long trips I think they might make sense... the infrastructure isn't mature enough for me at this point but it is getting better every day.

 

[explanade]

About once per month, and it is almost the only kind of driving I do. I go out very little around town.

My main volunteer activity -- which keeps me sane -- is disaster relief. I go for 3 days about once per month. The trips are usually 190 to 220 miles one way.

We leave early and arrive on site that morning, ready to go. This is the time I don't need range anxiety as the sites are usually in remote rural areas, near the coast, which creates challenges in traversing around the various rivers and bays. I also don't have time to search for fuel at this moment, as we have to meet the team and assess the job. I already leave early enough, I don't need more time built in.

The range issue is real for me. With my Subie, I can usually get about 500 miles doing this kind of highway driving. It is perfect to get there and back. Worst case, I can stop on the way home once I get out of the remote areas.

But that's not a typical driving pattern right?

I was asking about what most people do.

With cheap airfares, it seems people are incentivized not to take long drives.

 

[oneill225]

If I drive 15,000 miles a year and average 28 mpg and gas costs me $2.75/gallon then that is only $1,473.... I can easily afford that.

Don't get me wrong, I'm rooting for EVs and for people who don't take long trips I think they might make sense... the infrastructure isn't mature enough for me at this point but it is getting better every day.

Fair enough. My initial comment on this thread related to EV sales overtaking ICE vehicle sales within the next 5 years. By then, range and charging infrastructure should be a non-issue for the vast majority of drivers.

 

[explanade]

My guess is range on EVs will stop going up and maybe go down a bit as superchargers proliferate.

Especially if the proposed 500k chargers by 2030 legislation is enacted.

Some cars can add over 100 km of range in 10 minutes supposedly.

 

[JoeWras]

But that's not a typical driving pattern right?

I was asking about what most people do.

With cheap airfares, it seems people are incentivized not to take long drives.

You didn't say most people and neither did I. My example is not typical for an urban dweller. So, yeah, I agree on that point.

However, let's not forget the rural driver. Some of their patterns typically include long, occasional drives.

All that said... I look forward to EVs and see our family having one ICE and one EV. Most of our daily use is short urban and an EV would be fine, even today, charging at home.

 

[explanade]

Yeah I think for people who might have to make an emergency trip, say drive over 100 miles at a moment's notice, EVs won't work too well.

So lets say someone living in hurricane country. We've seen mass evacuations when they forecast a category 4 or greater.

Or some people have to drive 2 hours to get to a hospital.

Some people who mostly drive under 20 or even 10 miles a day may be tempted to not recharge for say a week or so.

But if they were forced to drive 2-3 hours or more on a moment's notice, they may not have their EV fully charged up.

 

[Out-to-Lunch]

Depends on what kind of car you are looking for. If you have priced a similarly equipped Toyota Camry, the price parity has been met without the $7,000 credit (low to mid $40,000 range). Parity for a $20,000 car; not yet.

As it stands, $7,000 is a huge price break, but it will not last forever.

A $40k to $45k Camry? They are essentially all < $30k. I'm rooting for EV, too, but let's not invent facts.

 

[Ready]

A $40k to $45k Camry? They are essentially all < $30k. I'm rooting for EV, too, but let's not invent facts.

A Tesla Model 3 SR+ is $38K. With incentives the price can drop several thousand dollars depending on what state you live in. In California the subsidies are $3,500, so that brings the car down to mid $30’s, comparable to a moderately equipped Camry or Accord.

 

[REWahoo]

However, let's not forget the rural driver. Some of their patterns typically include long, occasional drives.

That's us. We take 600-800 mile round trips 4 to 6 times a year, so no EV for us in the foreseeable future. Next car will likely be a hybrid.

 

[Ready]

On another note, I recently had to perform my first service on my Model 3 after two years. It consisted of changing out the cabin filter and checking the brake fluid. Total cost was $80. But more important to me, it was done by a mobile ranger while the car was parked in my driveway. They unlocked the car remotely, performed the service, and charged my credit card. I never even saw the technician.

Back in my Lexus days, I used to drive to the dealership twice a year for oil/filter changes and routine scheduled maintenance. Just a basic oil change was $300. But more significant to me was the amount of time I wasted. I had to drive to the dealership, wait around for them to write up the paperwork for a loaner car, drive home, then reverse the process to pick up the car. My entire day revolved around the service. Having a mobile ranger handle this for me without any involvement saves me far more time than I might spend occasionally supercharging on a longer trip.

 

[oneill225]

A $40k to $45k Camry? They are essentially all < $30k. I'm rooting for EV, too, but let's not invent facts.

Just priced the 2021 Camry XSE V6 with Tesla Model 3 type options at $38,560.

Much closer to $40k than sub $30k.

EVs are also much cheaper to operate, so price parity is a reality.

 

[Out-to-Lunch]

Isn't this the same as saying that price parity has not yet been achieved (absent subsidies)?

A $40k to $45k Camry? They are essentially all < $30k. I'm rooting for EV, too, but let's not invent facts.

A Tesla Model 3 SR+ is $38K. With incentives the price can drop several thousand dollars depending on what state you live in. In California the subsidies are $3,500, so that brings the car down to mid $30’s, comparable to a moderately equipped Camry or Accord.

My responses have solely been in service of questioning the proposition of price parity WITHOUT subsidies. Are you trying to confirm my position, or refute it?

 

[Ready]

This article compares the five year cost of ownership of a Model 3 to a $25k Camry. The Model 3 has a lower total cost over five years due to lower maintenance and operating costs.

https://loupventures.com/tesla-model-3-cost-of-ownership-slightly-cheaper-than-a-camry/

 

[Ready]

My responses have solely been in service of questioning the proposition of price parity WITHOUT subsidies. Are you trying to confirm my position, or refute it?

Refute it. There are no longer any Federal subsidies on Tesla vehicles, and in many states there are no state subsidies. California is very generous with their subsidies and it still only totals $3,500. And the $2,000 subsidy phases out once you earn too much income. Even still, $3,500 on a $38K car is insignificant. But the total five year cost of ownership of a Model 3 speaks for itself.

 

[Out-to-Lunch]

This article compares the five year cost of ownership of a Model 3 to a $25k Camry. The Model 3 has a lower total cost over five years due to lower maintenance and operating costs.

https://loupventures.com/tesla-model-3-cost-of-ownership-slightly-cheaper-than-a-camry/

I would love for you to be correct. However, the main reason that this article concludes that the cost of ownership is lower for a Model 3 is that they assume it will retain more of its value than the Camry.

 

[Ready]

I would love for you to be correct. However, the main reason that this article concludes that the cost of ownership is lower for a Model 3 is that they assume it will retain more of its value than the Camry.

It’s also comparing a $39K Tesla to a $25K Camry. But in reality a Camry with features comparable to a Model 3 would be closer to $35K.

 

[Out-to-Lunch]

This may be true. But it was not I who chose this model Camry for the comparison, nor was it I who chose a fictitious $45k Camry for a speculative comparison.

If these venture capitalists (their words, not mine, your link, not mine) had upselected to a Camry "with features comparable to a Model 3," do you think they would have also concluded that its resale value would be a poor fraction of its purchase price (as they did for the down-market Camry)?

 

[REWahoo]

Haven't been following this thread closely and missed this if it was previously posted:

Edmunds Tested: Electric Car Range and Consumption - Real World vs. EPA

Testing Tesla's Range Anxiety - The Retest

Edmunds tested 17 EVs to compare their EPA estimated range to real world. One well-known EV manufacturer's models all failed to achieve their advertised range, asked for a retest and got it. The results are...complicated.

I'm going to step away now, grab some popcorn and enjoy the show.

 

[Ready]

Here’s a more broad article discussing cost of ownership of EVs vs ICE vehicles, written by a non-profit who has been somewhat negative of Teslas over the years.

https://www.consumerreports.org/hybrids-evs/evs-offer-big-savings-over-traditional-gas-powered-cars/

 

[Out of Steam]

Well, they are for some people in some parts of the country. That will certainly expand, but it will be quite a while before it's true where I live.

The same is true where I live. The 2026 EV I mentioned earlier will still be a fairly uncommon sight around my house.

 

[Out of Steam]

EVs will dominate all car and truck sales by 2026. I'm not criticizing your choice to wait a few more years, but your criteria of price parity and range have largely been met, already, and will certainly be met in a year or two.

I live in a metro area where I can drive around all day and see a couple of Teslas and no other EVs. I don't believe that EVs will dominate sales here in five years, but should be far along enough that I can find charging stations.

As for price parity, it is not useful to have price parity between a luxury EV and a BMW X5 when you wanted to buy the cheapest Mazda crossover with blind spot monitoring and heated seats.