The Electric Vehicle Thread

[Cat-tirement]

got a RAV4 Prime, a plug-in with a 42 mile e-range. Because of long trips, we've only used the Emode about 25% of the time, so we're getting overall just over 50 mpg-

The main attraction was the E-range and the AWD

RAV4 Prime is a leading contender to replace DW’s Forester in a year or two. She has big time range anxiety, which is why I’m looking at primes. Have you had it long enough to see if the 42 mile claim is accurate? That would easily cover us for most around town driving. The AWD is also important to us, which has meant ruling out some other options.

 

[ArmchairMillionaire]

Our next car will almost definitely be electric. However, we're a one car family and likely still have at least another good 5 years of usage in our current vehicle. I'm sure this has been discussed before but price is a concern both from a current cost perspective and how long government subsidies will continue for, and also range. I suspect we'd be taking more roadtrips in retirement. The most we've driven in a day is likely Calgary to Vancouver which is about 1000km/600mi. But for practical purposes, we'd probably be ok driving half of that to break for a meal and charge (and is also a more common trip for us from Vancouver to Portland).
Telsa's are already capable of that range (ie. 500km/300mi) but I'm not sure I want to pay a premium to get a Tesla. And with our timeframe, I expect the EV choices to evolve significantly over the next 5 years, though at the risk of shrinking/disappearing subsidies.

I currently drive a mid-size regular cab 2wd pickup with a 4-cyl and a 5-speed. As a homeowner and the family handyman, I need a truck. Just not a crew cab 4wd behemoth that seem to be everywhere nowadays.

This one's still in the development stage but here's what I would get for an electric vehicle:

https://www.alphamotorinc.com/

We'll see if this makes it through development and ends up for sale to the general public. If I can find something like the one above once my current truck rusts to the point where it needs to be replaced, I would consider an Alpha. It would probably be the only way I could get a small regular-cab truck anyway.

 

[oneill225]

I'm thinking right now that I will be a relatively early convert to an EV, probably in 2026, by which time I will be collecting Social Security. I would anticipate price parity with gasoline-powered cars by then.

I'm not comfortable with a 200K mile daily driver, so won't keep my current car until then, but I will buy either an inexpensive new car or a used car to drive in the interim.

My requirement is the ability to make a 225 mile round trip without charging away from home, but I could tolerate a brief charge stop on the return leg in severe conditions.

EVs will dominate all car and truck sales by 2026. I'm not criticizing your choice to wait a few more years, but your criteria of price parity and range have largely been met, already, and will certainly be met in a year or two.

Even now, a range of 225 miles is considered non-competitive. A 300 mile range seems to be the new standard and that will continue to tick up.

Something to consider, is that tax credits will be hard to justify five years from now. The current $7,000 credit is very generous, but how long it stays is a crap shoot.

 

[Out-to-Lunch]

Something to consider, is that tax credits will be hard to justify five years from now. The current $7,000 credit is very generous, but how long it stays is a crap shoot.

Isn't this the same as saying that price parity has not yet been achieved (absent subsidies)?

 

[JoeWras]

EVs will dominate all car and truck sales by 2026. I'm not criticizing your choice to wait a few more years, but your criteria of price parity and range have largely been met, already, and will certainly be met in a year or two.

You are saying that authoritatively, but even pro-EV sites don't see that kind of growth in 5 years.

Perhaps by "dominate" you mean "in the news about rapid rise in share?"

It won't be 50%. Too much has to happen on many fronts:
- Factory tooling
- Charging infrastructure
- Electric grid infrastructure

Legislation can push the issue, but people can push back by keeping older cars or buying ICE on a premium -- if the market dictates.

Legislation tried to change the USA to Metric and tried to keep us driving at 55 mph, and both ultimately failed.

I'm not saying EVs are not going to dominate some day. I'm just saying 5 years is too aggressive.

 

[oneill225]

Isn't this the same as saying that price parity has not yet been achieved (absent subsidies)?

Depends on what kind of car you are looking for. If you have priced a similarly equipped Toyota Camry, the price parity has been met without the $7,000 credit (low to mid $40,000 range). Parity for a $20,000 car; not yet.

As it stands, $7,000 is a huge price break, but it will not last forever.

 

[MRG]

I'm thinking right now that I will be a relatively early convert to an EV, probably in 2026, by which time I will be collecting Social Security. I would anticipate price parity with gasoline-powered cars by then.

I'm not comfortable with a 200K mile daily driver, so won't keep my current car until then, but I will buy either an inexpensive new car or a used car to drive in the interim.

My requirement is the ability to make a 225 mile round trip without charging away from home, but I could tolerate a brief charge stop on the return leg in severe conditions.

You can do that trip today in a 40k vehicle. If you spend more you can do that trip twice before recharging.

 

[Ready]

You can do that trip today in a 40k vehicle. If you spend more you can do that trip twice before recharging.

Which car can do 225 miles round trip twice without a charge? The only one I can think of is the Model S Plaid+ coming out next year for $150K.

 

[oneill225]

You are saying that authoritatively, but even pro-EV sites don't see that kind of growth in 5 years.

Perhaps by "dominate" you mean "in the news about rapid rise in share?"

It won't be 50%. Too much has to happen on many fronts:
- Factory tooling
- Charging infrastructure
- Electric grid infrastructure

Legislation can push the issue, but people can push back by keeping older cars or buying ICE on a premium -- if the market dictates.

Legislation tried to change the USA to Metric and tried to keep us driving at 55 mph, and both ultimately failed.

I'm not saying EVs are not going to dominate some day. I'm just saying 5 years is too aggressive.

Not authoritative, just confident based on the current state of development and the accelerating sales trajectory. The tipping point for EV sales will come when mid and low priced EV cars and trucks start to be mass produced and range exceeds ICE range.

Legislation can and will push the shift both here and abroad, but most will gladly switch to EV based on superior performance, fuel savings, and lower maintenance costs. EVs are simply superior to ICE vehicles. Driving 55 was not superior to driving 70+.

5 years is a long time. Many examples in recent history show us that new and transformative technology is adopted as fast as people can afford it. Look at Amazon, flat screen tvs (vs tubes), motor cars (vs horse drawn carriages), smart phones, etc....EVs are not just toys for rich people, anymore (that was five years ago).

 

[oneill225]

Which car can do 225 miles round trip twice without a charge? The only one I can think of is the Model S Plaid+ coming out next year for $150K.

The same could be asked about an ICE car and refueling.

 

[The Cosmic Avenger]

The same could be asked about an ICE car and refueling.

Not really, because gas stations are much more common than charging stations right now. That's why Tesla made it a default feature to find charging stations. We would need to get to a point where it's as easy and fast to recharge an electric car as it is to refuel an ICE model for there to be true parity in "range anxiety". Me, I'd be perfectly happy with planning out my routes to include charging stations, I normally do most of that work anyway when making a long trip (not a regular commute). But not everyone likes to plan like that. You can just drive an ICE car in any direction, there will always be signs for how far to the next gas station, and they're fairly predictable in most parts of the country.

 

[MRG]

Which car can do 225 miles round trip twice without a charge? The only one I can think of is the Model S Plaid+ coming out next year for $150K.

Yes and the truck has been predicted to have over 500 miles of range.

 

[Ready]

When we get to the point where an EV with 500 miles of range can be purchased for under $50K I think we will see much faster adoption. I see this still being 2-3 years away, maybe longer. But we will get there.

 

[GTFan]

The tipping point for EV sales will come when mid and low priced EV cars and trucks start to be mass produced and range exceeds ICE range.

When charge times get down to the 10-minute mark and chargers are as ubiquitous as gas stations on the interstate, maybe.

I'm not holding my breath. They're still great commuter and local trip cars but no way are they as convenient for trips, and I don't see that changing in the next few years. I agree that EVs are superior to ICE for most folks but the infrastructure and charge times are not there yet.

 

[oneill225]

Not really, because gas stations are much more common than charging stations right now. That's why Tesla made it a default feature to find charging stations. We would need to get to a point where it's as easy and fast to recharge an electric car as it is to refuel an ICE model for there to be true parity in "range anxiety". Me, I'd be perfectly happy with planning out my routes to include charging stations, I normally do most of that work anyway when making a long trip (not a regular commute). But not everyone likes to plan like that. You can just drive an ICE car in any direction, there will always be signs for how far to the next gas station, and they're fairly predictable in most parts of the country.

Well, the charging networks are also expanding at a rapid pace and charging is also available anywhere that an outlet exists. Arguably, more options than going to the nearest gas station.

This whole point is a bit of a red herring, however, because the scenario of a 450 miles per daily commute is applicable to about 6 people in the world (just guessing). I would note, however, that this 450 mile daily commuter would save hundreds of dollars every month on gas and maintenance costs, but charging would cost him a little more time (assuming no plug or charging options at the work destination). So, even with this extreme scenario, it is not clear whether ICE beats EV.

One thing that is clear, range and charging options/speeds are constantly improving and most daily drivers will charge at home while they sleep. Gas stations will be another casualty of the EV switch over the coming years.

 

[Chuckanut]

You can do that trip today in a 40k vehicle. If you spend more you can do that trip twice before recharging.

EV's will need 400 mile ranges and quick energy renewal before they can replace gasoline completely. The only cars I have found that give me that are Hybrids - 500+ mile driving range and quick energy renewal.

I am curious about the Prime hybrids. If one wants to heat the passenger compartment on a cold winter day, does it have an electric heater, or does it simply run the engine to produce cabin heat? Or both?

 

[braumeister]

the infrastructure and charge times are not there yet.

Well, they are for some people in some parts of the country. That will certainly expand, but it will be quite a while before it's true where I live.

 

[Ready]

I think it’s helpful to think about what percentage of the total miles that you drive consist of long range trips that require a charging stop. I know it’s a big concern for some people but realistically what percentage of driving does this represent for the average driver?

 

[oneill225]

Well, they are for some people in some parts of the country. That will certainly expand, but it will be quite a while before it's true where I live.

15 minutes to add 200 miles at a Tesla Supercharger:

https://www.tesla.com/supercharger

Just a couple of years ago that would have taken over 30 minutes. With the added money savings compared to gasoline or diesel (about a third of the cost for electric refueling), we are pretty much there for most cross-country drivers.

Of course there will always be a smaller group of hard-core drivers who would drive 10 hours straight, if possible. Their EV is still decades away.

 

[JoeWras]

I'm having an odd feeling of deja vu on this thread.

 

[Ready]

I would like to see more effort to develop universal charging standards that allow any EV to rapidly charge at any charging station. The Tesla Superchargers are great for Tesla owners because they are optimized to rapidly charge Tesla vehicles. But over the long term it’s not practical to have each automaker build out their own charging networks specifically for their cars. Just as we would not have ICE vehicle manufacturers building out their own gas stations exclusively for their vehicles.

 

[JoeWras]

I would like to see more effort to develop universal charging standards that allow any EV to rapidly charge at any charging station.

Amen.

Until the industry puts on their grown-up pants and comes to a real standard everyone follows, progress will be slow. It is making me think twice for sure.

Early on in the computer world there were all kinds of incompatible media between brands. It was just rude and a real PITA.

Concerning charging: I suspect it will become like Apple and Microsoft. Or Beta (Sony) and VHS. It will likely settle to Tesla and everyone else.

 

[explanade]

How often are people going on several hundred mile trips these days?

My sense is miles driven have declined.

Especially in our age range, are we taking young kids camping?

 

[Midpack]

I’ve been semi lusting after a Tesla since the Model 3 came out but never got past my remaining reservations, and it would be a Model Y anyway. But now there’s an EV I might find irresistible (on the left), too bad I have to wait until 2023. Looks like I might see the actual production model in 2022 though when first introduced in the EU.

 

[pb4uski]

The same could be asked about an ICE car and refueling.

But the HUGE difference is that you can refuel an ICE car in 5 minutes vs what... 30 minutes at best for an EV using a Level 3 charger if you can find one.