Post Vaccination Behavior

[explanade]

I’ve noticed that the average number of daily reported cases has kind of stalled out the last two weeks. At least we’re under 13,000 average which is great. But several states have seen increases in cases in the past two weeks, some of them quite significant. Arkansas has had a 74% increase in cases!

I monitor the NYTimes COVID statistics page.

I believe these coincide with states with the lowest vaccination rates.


In CA, overall new case rates are pretty low right now but there are some rural counties with low vaccinations which is where the new cases are.

Now public health officials are urging people to get vaccinated before the delta variant really hits but a lot of people are ignoring them.

 

[REWahoo]

I believe these coincide with states with the lowest vaccination rates.

Yes, probably just a coincidence...

Coronavirus infections dropping where people are vaccinated, rising where they are not

As recently as 10 days ago, vaccination rates did not predict a difference in coronavirus cases, but immunization rates have diverged, and case counts in the highly vaccinated states are dropping quickly.

And another coincidence...

People hospitalized with COVID-19 now have one overwhelming thing in common. They're not vaccinated.

 

[audreyh1]

I believe these coincide with states with the lowest vaccination rates.

In CA, overall new case rates are pretty low right now but there are some rural counties with low vaccinations which is where the new cases are.

Now public health officials are urging people to get vaccinated before the delta variant really hits but a lot of people are ignoring them.

I expect so.

Will it ever get to a point where highly vaccinated states/counties do so much better in terms of hospitalization, cases, economically, etc., that the low vaccination states/counties wake up and smell the coffee? Delta variant could turn out to be a major challenge for low vaccination states. And it takes time for someone to become fully vaccinated: five or six weeks. It’s not something you can quickly fix during an outbreak which can flare up very quickly.

I did see an uptick in vaccinations. It’s gotten back up to 1.33M doses per day. Maybe some folks are getting that message.

 

[EastWest Gal]

I expect so.

Will it ever get to a point where highly vaccinated states/counties do so much better in terms of hospitalization, cases, economically, etc., that the low vaccination states/counties wake up and smell the coffee? Delta variant could turn out to be a major challenge for low vaccination states. And it takes time for someone to become fully vaccinated: five or six weeks. It’s not something you can quickly fix during an outbreak which can flare up very quickly.

I did see an uptick in vaccinations. It’s gotten back up to 1.33M doses per day. Maybe some folks are getting that message.

Uptick in vaccinations may have to do with the 12-15 year old crowd. Kids are out of school, so their parents have more time to take them for vaccines. Pediatricians' offices are quieter in the early summer. Summer is a typical time for most annual check-ups in school-age children. Vaccines are now available in many pediatrician's offices. Kids hate vaccines, but they are used to it. But I don't know if tracking vaccine data includes age of those vaccinated daily/weekly.

 

[audreyh1]

Yes, it certainly could be 12-15 year olds. It’s all good. The more the merrier!

 

[Katsmeow]

Will it ever get to a point where highly vaccinated states/counties do so much better in terms of hospitalization, cases, economically, etc., that the low vaccination states/counties wake up and smell the coffee? Delta variant could turn out to be a major challenge for low vaccination states. And it takes time for someone to become fully vaccinated: five or six weeks. It’s not something you can quickly fix during an outbreak which can flare up very quickly.

Well, I am also in Texas and I ever seen any evidence that Texas will learn from any other state on any of this type of thing.

One thing that I also thinks hurts at this point is that people see cases are relatively low and basically feel that Covid is "over" and they don't have to worry about it. But, they don't realize that if you just did a graph of unvaccinated people the picture looks different. That is, the number of vaccinated people makes it look like Covid is less of a risk than it really is for the unvaccinated.

I've definitely noticed just in the past couple of weeks a real decrease in things like masks. Back when CDC said vaccinated people didn't have to wear masks, a lot of stores went to a policy of vaccinated people don't have to wear masks, but the unvaccinated do. Of course, there was no checking of that. But, most workers in stores still work masks and a lot of customers wore masks (some of whom were likely vaccinated).

The last two weeks things seem to have changed. Much fewer workers wear masks. Now, that probably does mean many of them are now fully vaccinated. But, I also see a LOT of workers wearing masks below their nose. You figure they are not vaccinated (because then they wouldn't wear a mask) but it is useless under their nose.

And, in general, far fewer customers wear masks. Some of this is probably vaccinated customers being more comfortable mask free now (I know I am). Some may be more people reaching the fully vaccinated level. But, a lot is people who are unvaccinated. Often, the big clue is the family with the children who are without masks (children under 12 but old enough to wear masks).

All the medical offices require masks that I've been too. I did recently go somewhere that I was required to get a Covid test at their facility 2 days before my appointment. They didn't trust anyone else's Covid testing. And, any time you walked in the door they gave you a new mask. If you went outside and came back in they gave you a new mask.

 

[W2R]

[...]The last two weeks things seem to have changed. Much fewer workers wear masks. Now, that probably does mean many of them are now fully vaccinated. But, I also see a LOT of workers wearing masks below their nose. You figure they are not vaccinated (because then they wouldn't wear a mask) but it is useless under their nose.

And, in general, far fewer customers wear masks. [...]

All the medical offices require masks that I've been too.

Just about nobody wears masks here in New Orleans any more AFAIK. Not at restaurants or grocery stores, anyway. I went to get my routine blood work done at the lab on Wednesday, and there was a sign saying masks were required. I put mine on, went inside, and the phlebotomist had her mask on - - it was not just below her nose, but clear down below her chin. Same with the other patients.

People are going to concerts and gathering in large groups again. Apparently somebody flipped the switch, and they all simultaneously decided the pandemic is over. Who knew?

 

[timo2]

One thing that I also thinks hurts at this point is that people see cases are relatively low and basically feel that Covid is "over" and they don't have to worry about it. But, they don't realize that if you just did a graph of unvaccinated people the picture looks different. That is, the number of vaccinated people makes it look like Covid is less of a risk than it really is for the unvaccinated.masks below their nose. You figure they are not vaccinated (because then they wouldn't wear a mask) but it is useless under their nose.
.

I'd like to see the statistics parsed to show the covid hospitalization rate for the unvaxxed per county. We still need the overall numbers because of potential breakthrough cases, but if the unvaxed stats were added to the various tracking websites, that may help some people understand the numbers better. It would also help me in my post-vaccination behavior list of places to avoid visiting.

 

[REWahoo]

One thing that I also thinks hurts at this point is that people see cases are relatively low and basically feel that Covid is "over" and they don't have to worry about it. But, they don't realize that if you just did a graph of unvaccinated people the picture looks different. That is, the number of vaccinated people makes it look like Covid is less of a risk than it really is for the unvaccinated.

^ This.

In an article I linked earlier, three hospital systems in Minnesota, Ohio, Iowa and the Dakotas all reported fewer than 5% of their hospitalized Covid patients had been vaccinated. IOW, Covid clearly isn't "over" for the unvaccinated.

 

[Jeffman52]

That is true, but its hard to argue with the number of deaths and new cases down to where it was in March 2020 and still declining. Active cases are still higher than anyone would like but if new cases continues to plummet then that number will also.


The "delta" variant looks to be a more concerning issue as it is more easily transmitted. I dont see numbers rising substantially until the Fall when people go back indoors where its harder to social distance and the virus is more easily transmissible (because of air flow).

 

[Chuckanut]

^ This.

In an article I linked earlier, three hospital systems in Minnesota, Ohio, Iowa and the Dakotas all reported fewer than 5% of their hospitalized Covid patients had been vaccinated. IOW, Covid clearly isn't "over" for the unvaccinated.

What?!?!!? The next thing you will tell me is that even if lung diseases are falling I still can't go back to smoking a pack a day.

 

[Katsmeow]

So, today, I went to the first medical office I've been to that had no masking requirement. Four weeks ago, I was at that office and it required everyone to be vaccinated. Today, there was not even a sign addressing masks. The staff is completely masked.

When I was in the waiting area some people did have masks on, while others didn't. I ask and was told that the doctor (who I know has been vaccinated) has now made it optional.

Not having any sign at all is very new to me. A lot of places now have a sign saying that vaccinated people can come in without masks but unvaccinated people should still wear masks. So that wouldn't surprise me. But, to not have anything was surprising. Perhaps they figure that while unvaccinated people should wear masks there isn't any way to enforce it so they will leave it to the individual.

This practice probably has a well over 80% vaccination rate among its clientale. It was a retina doctor located in an area with high vaccination rates. Most of the clients are older than I am (I'm 67) so they are extremely likely to be vaccinated.

I will say that while I do think risk is still there for unvaccinated people, going places now is mostly normal although typically most or all staff people wear masks. I am starting to feel normal going in without a mask (although I always carry one with me).

 

[timo2]

The "delta" variant looks to be a more concerning issue as it is more easily transmitted. I don't see numbers rising substantially until the Fall when people go back indoors where its harder to social distance and the virus is more easily transmissible (because of air flow).

As is typical with SARS-Cov-2, guidance is all over the place. Several news stories caught my attention this week, in regards to how I should behave in public. I have both Pfizers and am 68YO. I've been out and about quite a bit, some masked, some unmasked, but think I'll still avoid indoor dining for a bit more.

1) Here is a single study that I have seen quoted at least three times this week. Specifically, "The growth curve for [Delta], which is more transmissible but against which vaccines are highly effective, shows faster growth in counties with lower vaccination rates. In contrast, [Gamma], which is less transmissible but against which vaccines have somewhat less efficacy, has a higher prevalence in counties with higher vaccination rates." https://arstechnica.com/science/202...begins-as-alpha-drops-from-70-to-35-of-cases/

2) "WHO urges fully vaccinated people to continue to wear masks as delta Covid variant spreads" https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/25/del...ontinue-to-wear-masks-as-variant-spreads.html

3) Even though the actual numbers are miniscule, this factoid caught my eye: "An overwhelming majority, 76%, of the hospitalizations and deaths from breakthrough cases occurred in people over the age of 65." "https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/25/covid-breakthrough-cases-cdc-says-more-than-4100-people-have-been-hospitalized-or-died-after-vaccination.html

 

[audreyh1]

Useful links, thanks!

I think it’s wise to pay attention to local prevalence and act accordingly. Our county can’t seem to get below 5 cases per 100,000. It gets there then pops back up a bit repeatedly. I have been hoping we would get down below 3. I wonder if these new variants are playing a roll.

I notice the US overall has finally gotten under 12,000 average new cases reported per day, but it has kind of been stuck there for a week. I wonder if that also reflects increasing cases from the new variants.

 

[Katsmeow]

My county is at 5 cases per 100k and about 44% of the county has had one dose of vaccine (about 38% vaccinated). But, in many ways that is misleading.
Those numbers are about 60% and 52% for those 12+ and is 87% and 75% for people over 65.

We also have a breakdown that shows vaccinations by zip code. My zip code is the highest vaccination zip code with about 65% receiving at least one dose. So the percentage of people 12+ vaccinated would probably be around 80%.

But some zip codes in this county have vaccination rates well under 10%! Of course, you can follow this clearly by looking at the income in the various zip codes. Vaccination rates in this county are highly correlated with income. The top 3 zip codes are basically the 3 highest income zip costs. I live in one of the zip codes and do a lot of my shopping in another one and the other zip codes that surround mine are also high vaccination areas. I think this is one reason people have abandoned masks so quickly. That is, lots of people know that this is a high vaccination area and most adults have been vaccinated.

 

[explanade]

One dose is not enough for delta.

Wonder what percentage of people get one dose and figure they're done.

In fact, I've seen suggestions that people who got the J&J consider getting an mRNA shot.

 

[Alan]

One dose is not enough for delta.

Wonder what percentage of people get one dose and figure they're done.

In fact, I've seen suggestions that people who got the J&J consider getting an mRNA shot.

Plenty of evidence that 2 doses are needed to protect against Delta, and that the effectiveness of 2 doses is over 90% effective against serious illness.

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/...ve-against-hospitalisation-from-delta-variant

The analysis suggests:

the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine is 96% effective against hospitalisation after 2 doses
the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine is 92% effective against hospitalisation after 2 doses

The case for mixing vaccines is gaining strength with various studies going on.

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-01359-3

Prime and boost
Starting in April, the Spanish CombivacS trial enrolled 663 people who had already received a first dose of the Oxford–AstraZeneca vaccine, which uses a harmless chimpanzee ‘adenovirus’ to deliver instructions for cells to make a SARS-CoV-2 protein. Two-thirds of participants were randomly picked to receive the mRNA-based vaccine made by Pfizer, based in New York City, and BioNTech, in Mainz, Germany, at least eight weeks after their first dose. A control group of 232 people has not yet received a booster. The study was led by the Carlos III Health Institute in Madrid.

The Pfizer–BioNTech booster seemed to jolt the immune systems of the Oxford–AstraZeneca-dosed participants, reported Magdalena Campins, an investigator on the CombivacS study at the Vall d’Hebron University Hospital in Barcelona, Spain. After this second dose, participants began to produce much higher levels of antibodies than they did before, and these antibodies were able to recognize and inactivate SARS-CoV-2 in laboratory tests.

 

[harllee]

The Baseball College World Series currently being played in Omaha has been hit by Covid. A team from my area (NC State) was disqualified from the tournament and sent home early on Saturday. The NCAA did not require players to be vaccinated but stated that unvaccinated players had to be tested every other day and were subject to contract tracing and quarantine. Plus if a team had an outbreak then everyone on the team (vaccinated and unvaccinated) had to be tested and was subject to contract tracing. According to the local media, only half of the NC State players were vaccinated. One of the NC State unvaccinated players started showing symptoms last Tuesday and test positive for Covid. Several other unvaccinated players also tested positive. The NCAA allowed vaccinated NC State players to play on Friday against Vanderbilt. But on Saturday 4 of the vaccinated NC State players also tested positive and the NCAA then banned the team from playing any more games. I understand that the Vanderbilt team was fully vaccinated so they are allowed to continue to play, they play Miss. State tonight.

Many fans are upset with the NC State coach for not requiring all players to be vaccinated but he said it was not his place to require vaccines, that was a decision for the player and his parents.

One concerning issue to me is the report that 4 vaccinated players tested positive.

 

[Chuckanut]

The Baseball College World Series currently being played in Omaha has been hit by Covid. A team from my area (NC State) was disqualified from the tournament and sent home early on Saturday. The NCAA did not require players to be vaccinated but stated that unvaccinated players had to be tested every other day and were subject to contract tracing and quarantine. Plus if a team had an outbreak then everyone on the team (vaccinated and unvaccinated) had to be tested and was subject to contract tracing.

The sad thing is that the entire team is gone, kaput, not able to play. I wonder how the players who took the time to get vaccinated feel about that? I would love to hear what they are saying in private.

As I have said before, at some point the vaccinated are going to give up trying to protect those who are unvaccinated. (other than those with medical conditions, etc.)

 

[harllee]

The sad thing is that the entire team is gone, kaput, not able to play. I wonder how the players who took the time to get vaccinated feel about that? I would love to hear what they are saying in private.

As I have said before, at some point the vaccinated are going to give up trying to protect those who are unvaccinated. (other than those with medical conditions, etc.)

Vaccines in most places are not mandatory but there are consequences for those who choose to be unvaccinated. The players who decided to not get vaccinated had the bad consequence of catching Covid and disqualifying the whole team. I have not heard any statements from those players who were vaccinated but I bet they are plenty mad, I would be. Some fans are blaming the NCAA but it is clear to me where the blame lies--it is on the players who were not vaccinated. I also would put the blame on the Coach for not requiring his players to be vaccinated.

 

[jcfradio]

As I have said before, at some point the vaccinated are going to give up trying to protect those who are unvaccinated. (other than those with medical conditions, etc.)

I have been thinking the same thing for a while. It is well known that the vaccine does not prevent you from getting COVID and testing positive but it does reduce the risk of transmission and more importantly reduces the risk of hospitalization amongst the vaccinated. There will come a time soon, where someone who is vaccinated should not be "kicked off the boat" because they test positive, just to protect those who won't or can't be bothered to get vaccinated. At some point, they will be on their own to deal with the consequences of their actions or inactions. Tough love?

 

[travelover]

...... At some point, they will be on their own to deal with the consequences of their actions or inactions. Tough love?

I think Darwin spelled it out a long time ago.

 

[Breedlove]

I heard about that today that what ended the teams run was 4 players being tested positive and two of them were fully vaccinated .....Either a false positive or we got problems .

 

[REWahoo]

I heard about that today that what ended the teams run was 4 players being tested positive and two of them were fully vaccinated .....Either a false positive or we got problems .

Once again, the vaccine is NOT 100% effective in preventing Covid. A small percentage of fully vaccinated folks will get the virus but most who do will be only mildly ill.

 

[harllee]

I heard about that today that what ended the teams run was 4 players being tested positive and two of them were fully vaccinated .....Either a false positive or we got problems .

Or maybe they were not really vaccinated? Actually I think it is pretty common for a person who is vaccinated to test positive after they have been exposed. The vaccinated person normally does not get sick.

According to the local media, 8 players tested positive (out of 27 on the team), 4 were not vaccinated (and they were having symptoms) and 4 vaccinated (no symptoms).