I think that this thread is going down the wrong rabbit hole in assuming that there was fraud. No one has ever said that just because you were vaccinated for COVID that you could never get the disease]; no vaccine is 100% effective. It was just that you would be less likely to get severely sick or be highly transmissable as you would be if you werent vaccinated.
That is one of my big concerns, which is borne out in this thread. You could be vaccinated and still get the virus but be at a much reduced risk of hospitalization and transmission. However, if you were on a cruise it would be you who would be kicked off the cruise to protect those who are not (or who won't) be vaccinated. It will be interesting to see how this gets dealt with as more people get vaccinated. What freedoms do I give up when I have done things to be safe to protect those who won't be bothered.
Well, let's try to put some numbers to this. As I mentioned in another thread
https://www.early-retirement.org/fo...id-social-distancing-109558-4.html#post261892, during the Pfizer trials, over a period of 2 months, 8/21,270 or 0.04% of vaccinated people caught Covid.
Recall that for this cruise, people were required to be vaccinated and to present a negative covid test result from a test not more than 72 hours before boarding. Let's assume that a covid test cannot detect the virus unless you have been infected for two days (maybe someone has better data). So assume there is a five day window during which these two people could have caught Covid before they boarded the ship. If the probability of a person catching Covid was .0004 over 60 days, then it is likely 5/60 x .0004 or .0000333 over 5 days. (I would argue that it is less, since during the Pfizer trial, no one else but the trial participants was vaccinated).
Now, what is the probability of any two vaccinated people both catching covid. Well, you square the probability for 1. So the odds are .0000333 x .0000333 = 1.11111 x 10E-9 or about 1 in a billion. And, assuming that there are 500 passengers, two to a room, what is the probability that any two people were in the same cabin? 1 in 499.
So if we further divide by 499, the probability that there were two vaccinated people with an undetected breakthrough infection in the same cabin (as the facts were reported), that is 2.2267 10E-12. That's odds of about 2 per trillion or 1 in 500 billion of occurring.
Now, you tell me, what are the odds that a couple who really wanted to go on that cruise lied about their vaccination status, their test status or both?