Covid Getting Closer to Home

[JoeWras]

Not so good all across north Florida as usual. It becomes obvious when you go to grocery stores, entertainment, restaurants, and bars. A major reason why I only go to grocery stores with a list and knowledge of the floor plan. The rest I will leave to others willing to take their chances. Those who contribute to the burgundy due to their behavior will have to deal with their own problem.


Cheers!

Yet the colors are different in the counties across the state line in Georgia.

Same in Oklahoma. OK pops out.

 

[Ronstar]

Yet the colors are different in the counties across the state line in Georgia.

Same in Oklahoma. OK pops out.

The difference between counties in OK and those adjacent counties in Texas is huge. Makes me suspect that data is captured and represented quite differently between the places. Maybe there is a lot more testing in Ok. I find it hard to believe that there is significant more covid on one side of a river than on the other.

 

[JoeWras]

The difference between counties in OK and those adjacent counties in Texas is huge. Makes me suspect that data is captured and represented quite differently between the places. I find it hard to believe that there is significant more covid on one side of a river than on the other.

Well, that's my point. Once again, numbers is hard, and the data is <comment withheld>.

 

[Gumby]

Data collection differences could be an explanation, but there could be others.

Before I retired, I sometimes worked with the Federal Trade Commission on merger cases. To help analyze whether a proposed merger will harm competition and violate the antitrust laws, you need to analyze the geographic market for the products made by the merging parties. In that analysis, the FTC economists take into account the presence of state lines and physical barriers such as rivers, because they have found over the years that people's shopping habits are shaped by those factors in a manner that is statistically significant. That is, on the whole people are reluctant to cross state lines and rivers to shop or eat dinner. Obviously not everyone, but enough to affect the data. When I first learned that, I was surprised, but then I looked at my own habits. I live in a town on a river, and I find that if I leave my own town, it is almost always to go to other towns on my side of the river, even though they are farther away than the town on the other shore and even though there are multiple bridges.

In the case of Texas and Oklahoma, you have not only the state line, but also a physical barrier, the Red River, between them. On average, people in Oklahoma are more likely to stay in Oklahoma as they go about their daily business, and people in Texas are going to stay there. In light of that, I believe there very well could be differences in the prevalence of Covid that are NOT due to differing data collection methodologies.

 

[JoeWras]

In the case of Texas and Oklahoma, you have not only the state line, but also a physical barrier, the Red River, between them. On average, people in Oklahoma are more likely to stay in Oklahoma as they go about their daily business, and people in Texas are going to stay there. In light of that, I believe there very well could be differences in the prevalence of Covid that are NOT due to differing data collection methodologies.

Is there a straight river between OK and Kansas or Arkansas?

 

[Ronstar]

In the case of Texas and Oklahoma, you have not only the state line, but also a physical barrier, the Red River, between them. On average, people in Oklahoma are more likely to stay in Oklahoma as they go about their daily business, and people in Texas are going to stay there. In light of that, I believe there very well could be differences in the prevalence of Covid that are NOT due to differing data collection methodologies.

The road crossings of the Red River are quite sparse giving credence to the physical barrier explanation. And I can believe that most people along a border stay in their own state most of the time.

But the whole state of OK is purple. Far different than adjacent Texas, Arkansas and Kansas. No physical barrier between OK and KS, and OK and ARK. So while some of the differences can be attributed to different behaviors in different states, the differences are just so extensive that the data (and/or data acquisition procedures) are suspect - IMO

ETA - Maybe I'm being overly critical of Covid data and reporting. But I'm aware of several cases where things don't add up. A nursing home resident dies and cause of death is stated as Covid. The lady had covid at the time of death, but no autopsy or examination was performed. Similar situation in other recent deaths that I'm aware of.

And I've seen reports that really make me question the data. Some weeks where no cases were reported. Turns out that they didn't collect or process data for that week. Stuff like this makes me question everything. I really don't believe any Covid data that I see.

 

[Gumby]

Is there a straight river between OK and Kansas or Arkansas?

No, there are state borders, which, as I explained earlier, the FTC economists consider to have a statistically significant effect on people's shopping habits even in the absence of a physical barrier.

When I lived in Mystic, CT, I could shop in Westerly, RI or Groton, CT. Almost exactly the same distance and no physical barrier either way. But I always went to Groton, never to Westerly. Turns out other people tend to behave the same way.

Is it the only explanation? No. But it's worth thinking about.

 

[Gumby]

The road crossings of the Red River are quite sparse giving credence to the physical barrier explanation. And I can believe that most people along a border stay in their own state most of the time.

But the whole state of OK is purple. Far different than adjacent Texas, Arkansas and Kansas. No physical barrier between OK and KS, and OK and ARK. So while some of the differences can be attributed to different behaviors in different states, the differences are just so extensive that the data (and/or data acquisition procedures) are suspect - IMO

ETA - Maybe I'm being overly critical of Covid data and reporting. But I'm aware of several cases where things don't add up. A nursing home resident dies and cause of death is stated as Covid. The lady had covid at the time of death, but no autopsy or examination was performed. Similar situation in other recent deaths that I'm aware of.

And I've seen reports that really make me question the data. Some weeks where no cases were reported. Turns out that they didn't collect or process data for that week. Stuff like this makes me question everything. I really don't believe any Covid data that I see.

There could be multiple causes. It's not an either/or case. One thing I forgot to mention earlier is something that came up in reviewing hospital system mergers. Many people's health plan networks do not extend beyond the state border into adjacent states, so people are especially prone to staying in their own state for health care. Does that affect either the actual prevalence or the reporting of Covid? I don't know, but it's worth mulling over.

 

[ExFlyBoy5]

The difference between counties in OK and those adjacent counties in Texas is huge. Makes me suspect that data is captured and represented quite differently between the places. Maybe there is a lot more testing in Ok. I find it hard to believe that there is significant more covid on one side of a river than on the other.

I can't access the specific info on the NYT (paywall) so I can't dig into the specifics. Here is the latest 7 day average that was published by the state. The weekly report is pretty comprehensive. Also, the daily case count has come down significantly as shown on the graph.

https://oklahoma.gov/covid19.html

Here is the weekly report where you can compare Oklahoma numbers with other states. https://oklahoma.gov/content/dam/ok...-report/2022/2022.02.09 Weekly Epi Report.pdf

 

[Turbo29]

The difference between counties in OK and those adjacent counties in Texas is huge. Makes me suspect that data is captured and represented quite differently between the places. Maybe there is a lot more testing in Ok. I find it hard to believe that there is significant more covid on one side of a river than on the other.

If a student in a high school science class did an experiment and compared test groups with statistics for each group being collected in as varied a manner as the covid statistics are collected in different areas (cities, counties, states, and even countries) and then used those comparisons to draw conclusions, they would get a failing grade.

 

[Turbo29]

New Confirmed COVID-19 Cases per Day by States/Territories, normalized by population


You can add or subtract highlighted areas and/or change the time period.

 

[athena53]

New Confirmed COVID-19 Cases per Day by States/Territories, normalized by population


You can add or subtract highlighted areas and/or change the time period.

Thank you! First of all, it's encouraging and second, I have a 7-year old granddaughter who's fascinated by graphs. I will definitely show her this one.

 

[W2R]

ETA - Maybe I'm being overly critical of Covid data and reporting.

As someone with four advanced STEM degrees who spent decades collecting and analyzing data, and overseeing its usage in valid and significant scientific studies, I don't think there is such a thing as being overly critical of Covid data and studies based on these data that are presently available to the public.

No matter what response this post gets, that's all I'll say about it... except this is why I don't engage in data analysis discussions here on the forum.

 

[ExFlyBoy5]

New Confirmed COVID-19 Cases per Day by States/Territories, normalized by population


You can add or subtract highlighted areas and/or change the time period.

Interesting page and if you compare with what the NYT shows, it's quite different. This shows California with a rate per 100,000 quite a bit higher than Oklahoma.

 

[Turbo29]

Interesting page and if you compare with what the NYT shows, it's quite different. This shows California with a rate per 100,000 quite a bit higher than Oklahoma.

The data in the graph is from Johns Hopkins, I haven't read the NYT article so I don' know their data source.

 

[Turbo29]

The data in the graph is from Johns Hopkins, I haven't read the NYT article so I don' know their data source.

I guess my free articles haven't been used up. The NYT says "
About this data Sources: State and local health agencies (cases, deaths); U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (hospitalizations); Centers for Disease Control and state governments (vaccinations); Census Bureau (population and demographic data). The daily average is calculated with data that was reported in the last seven days. Vaccination data is not available for some states. All-time charts show data from Jan. 21, 2020 to present."

 

[Chuckanut]

The difference between counties in OK and those adjacent counties in Texas is huge. Makes me suspect that data is captured and represented quite differently between the places. Maybe there is a lot more testing in Ok. I find it hard to believe that there is significant more covid on one side of a river than on the other.

The difference is attitude's towards the Covid masking and vaccination rates between Washington and Idaho are huge. WA people tend to at least pretend to show concern by masking up and having a descent vaccination rate. My observations of stores, libraries, and restaurants in Idaho would make one think their is no such thing as Covid.

It's only a man made line in the dirt, but apparently, the mental significance is huge.

 

[Ronstar]

New Confirmed COVID-19 Cases per Day by States/Territories, normalized by population


You can add or subtract highlighted areas and/or change the time period.

Thanks for posting! This is the best data site that I've seen.

 

[athena53]

My freebie tests arrived yesterday and this morning I took one, having been at a very well-attended funeral last weekend (calling hours AND church service, with meals following both) and with an in-person meeting scheduled this evening and most of tomorrow with a Bishop, about a dozen priests and multiple lay leaders. Negative, thank heaven, although it's hybrid and Zoom was an option.

This is an older group and from what I can tell (I'm on FB with many of them), they take vaccinations seriously, so we should be OK in person.

 

[audreyh1]

I hope they mask also because the current vaccines don’t prevent catching and spreading Omicron, although if boosted they do a good job of preventing hospitalization, etc.

 

[anethum]

My freebie tests arrived yesterday and this morning I took one, having been at a very well-attended funeral last weekend (calling hours AND church service, with meals following both) and with an in-person meeting scheduled this evening and most of tomorrow with a Bishop, about a dozen priests and multiple lay leaders. Negative, thank heaven, although it's hybrid and Zoom was an option.

This is an older group and from what I can tell (I'm on FB with many of them), they take vaccinations seriously, so we should be OK in person.

It's important to remember that the antigen tests may lag PCR tests in giving a positive result for Covid. There was a small study conducted (not yet peer-reviewed) after the arrival of omicron which found that a PCR test gave a positive result for Covid, on average, three days before an antigen test first returned a positive result in the same patient.

https://www.medtechdive.com/news/abbott-quidel-covid-antigen-tests-lag-pcr-study/616738/

"The median time from first positive PCR to first antigen test positive was three days. During the false negative period, four of the 30 people in the cohort are known to have transmitted the virus."

 

[Chuckanut]

I hope they mask also because the current vaccines don’t prevent catching and spreading Omicron, although if boosted they do a good job of preventing hospitalization, etc.

I recently spent a few days in what I will call StateX. Masks? Only in a few big name stores like Walmart. Otherwise one would never know that Omicron and the previous variants ever existed.

I probably looked a big goofy in my N95 mask, but I didn't care.

 

[athena53]

I recently spent a few days in what I will call StateX. Masks? Only in a few big name stores like Walmart. Otherwise one would never know that Omicron and the previous variants ever existed.

Yeah, that was the situation at the funeral, which was in a small town in N. Iowa.

It's important to remember that the antigen tests may lag PCR tests in giving a positive result for Covid.

Today is Friday and I got home Sunday, so hopefully the negative result is accurate.

 

[Chuckanut]

Today is Friday and I got home Sunday, so hopefully the negative result is accurate.

FWIW, after returning from the no-masks StateX, I decided to test myself the day I returned, three days later and four days after that. IOW, three times in one week.

 

[disneysteve]

Got our free test kits today. They expire in December so pretty decent shelf life.


I haven't opened one yet to see if it comes with instructions. I saw online that at least one brand does not. You have to go to their website and register your personal info to access the instructions, which is insane.