Covid Getting Closer to Home

[Scuba]

Where are you getting your data from?



Daily deaths from Covid in the USA have not dropped in the past week and have remained above 2,500 every day since Jan. 28, 2022. Because hospitalizations and deaths are lagging indicators, it is not surprising that both continued to rise as new cases decreased. There has been a 4% rise in Covid deaths in the USA in the past week according to the following source:



https://www.washingtonpost.com/grap...id=hp_pandemic_gfx/?state=US&indicator=deaths



There are good sources of data and news which exist.

This was an article in our local paper and was quoting data from our county only.

 

[sengsational]

There's nothing "equal" about COVID and the flu. Flu deaths average around 35,000/year I believe. COVID has killed more than 25 times that number in just 2 years.

Yes, there were a lot of deaths early in the pandemic, when it was much more deadly, there were no vaccines, and there were no treatments. Of course, all of that was true. I wasn't speaking from an overall pandemic perspective, but instead observing the current state of affairs.

I was thinking about the omicron wave, compared to 2017/2018 flu, which was 61,000 deaths in the US according to the CDC. You probably remember that season, if you were working in heath care at that time. I find myself wondering if omicron deaths this season will reach that tragic flu season. I think it puts things into perspective. I believe in putting things into perspective.

 

[disneysteve]

Yes, there were a lot of deaths early in the pandemic, when it was much more deadly, there were no vaccines, and there were no treatments. Of course, all of that was true. I wasn't speaking from an overall pandemic perspective, but instead observing the current state of affairs.

I was thinking about the omicron wave, compared to 2017/2018 flu, which was 61,000 deaths in the US according to the CDC. You probably remember that season, if you were working in heath care at that time. I find myself wondering if omicron deaths this season will reach that tragic flu season. I think it puts things into perspective. I believe in putting things into perspective.

The US 7-day average right now is 2,600 deaths per day. Back in the summer before Omicron arrived, it had gotten under 200/day. So we're currently seeing 13 times as many deaths each day as we were 6 or 7 months ago.


At 2,600/day, it would take just 23 days to match that 2017-18 tally.

 

[2HOTinPHX]

The US 7-day average right now is 2,600 deaths per day. Back in the summer before Omicron arrived, it had gotten under 200/day. So we're currently seeing 13 times as many deaths each day as we were 6 or 7 months ago.


At 2,600/day, it would take just 23 days to match that 2017-18 tally.

YIKES, At least 5 states plan to ease face-mask mandates against advice of CDC, as U.S. daily death toll hovers close to 2,600

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/at-least-5-states-plan-to-ease-face-mask-mandates-against-advice-of-cdc-as-u-s-daily-death-toll-hovers-close-to-2-600-11644335012

The moves come as the U.S. continues to suffer an average of almost 2,600 COVID deaths a day, even as cases and hospitalizations are declining from the peak in December and January caused by the highly infectious omicron variant.

Cases are down 62% from two weeks ago at an average 253,782 a day, according to a New York Times tracker, and hospitalizations are down 27% at 115,165. But deaths, which lag cases and hospitalizations, are averaging 2,598 a day and are mostly occurring among unvaccinated people.

 

[disneysteve]

YIKES, At least 5 states plan to ease face-mask mandates against advice of CDC, as U.S. daily death toll hovers close to 2,600

Yep. My state is one of them. Dropping the mandate for schools, which is insane since the vaccination rate among kids is a lot lower than it is for adults. Fortunately, the state isn't doing the truly insane thing of saying districts can't decide for themselves so many districts will be keeping their mandates in place.

 

[harllee]

Yes, there were a lot of deaths early in the pandemic, when it was much more deadly, there were no vaccines, and there were no treatments. Of course, all of that was true. I wasn't speaking from an overall pandemic perspective, but instead observing the current state of affairs.

I was thinking about the omicron wave, compared to 2017/2018 flu, which was 61,000 deaths in the US according to the CDC. You probably remember that season, if you were working in heath care at that time. I find myself wondering if omicron deaths this season will reach that tragic flu season. I think it puts things into perspective. I believe in putting things into perspective.

I have looked all over the CDC information for the flu in 2017/18 and I cannot find anything near 61,000 flu deaths in 2017/18. Can you tell me where on the CDC site you found this? In any event the number of Covid deaths for 2022 will most certainly be substantially more than 61,000. I also believe in putting things into perspective.

 

[Ronstar]

Yep. My state is one of them. Dropping the mandate for schools, which is insane since the vaccination rate among kids is a lot lower than it is for adults. Fortunately, the state isn't doing the truly insane thing of saying districts can't decide for themselves so many districts will be keeping their mandates in place.

I believe that the state powers are getting tired of the mask push back from parents. So the states will punt and put the onus on the school districts.

I have another friend who just contacted Covid. A 2 time cancer and stroke survivor. Hopefully he has no problem in recovering.

 

[Gumby]

I have looked all over the CDC information for the flu in 2017/18 and I cannot find anything near 61,000 flu deaths in 2017/18. Can you tell me where on the CDC site you found this? In any event the number of Covid deaths for 2022 will most certainly be substantially more than 61,000. I also believe in putting things into perspective.

This CDC document evaluates the 2017/2018 flu season. https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burde...overall burden of flu,related deaths (Table 1).

It appears the total deaths were a little over 51,0000 (could have been a typo earlier), but could have been as low as ~37k or as high as ~95k. In any event, as disneysteve points out, at current rates of Covid deaths, unless there is a drastic tapering off and soon, it won't be long until we hit that sad milestone.


In the larger context, how about if we all presume that others are posting with good intentions and give them the benefit of the doubt when the wording is imprecise? It would improve the mood considerably.

 

[anethum]

Yes, there were a lot of deaths early in the pandemic, when it was much more deadly, there were no vaccines, and there were no treatments. Of course, all of that was true. I wasn't speaking from an overall pandemic perspective, but instead observing the current state of affairs.

I was thinking about the omicron wave, compared to 2017/2018 flu, which was 61,000 deaths in the US according to the CDC. You probably remember that season, if you were working in heath care at that time. I find myself wondering if omicron deaths this season will reach that tragic flu season. I think it puts things into perspective. I believe in putting things into perspective.

According to the following site:
https://ourworldindata.org/coronavi...-is-the-cumulative-number-of-confirmed-deaths
there were a cumulative 827,748 Covid deaths in the USA on 12/31/2021. As of Feb. 7, 2022, the cumulative total is 905,543. That means there have already been 77,795 Covid deaths in the USA this year.

 

[disneysteve]

According to the following site:
https://ourworldindata.org/coronavi...-is-the-cumulative-number-of-confirmed-deaths
there were a cumulative 827,748 Covid deaths in the USA on 12/31/2021. As of Feb. 7, 2022, the cumulative total is 905,543. That means there have already been 77,795 Covid deaths in the USA this year.

There's the current perspective for you. Omicron was/is incredibly deadly. It has a lower death rate but it has infected far more people so the actual number is very high. A smaller percentage of a much bigger number.

 

[Gumby]

According to the following site:
https://ourworldindata.org/coronavi...-is-the-cumulative-number-of-confirmed-deaths
there were a cumulative 827,748 Covid deaths in the USA on 12/31/2021. As of Feb. 7, 2022, the cumulative total is 905,543. That means there have already been 77,795 Covid deaths in the USA this year.

Thanks for the information, I think it is helpful.

 

[ExFlyBoy5]

There's the current perspective for you. Omicron was/is incredibly deadly. It has a lower death rate but it has infected far more people so the actual number is very high. A smaller percentage of a much bigger number.

I would agree...for those that are unvaccinated.

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/71/wr/mm7104e2.htm#T1_down

 

[disneysteve]

I would agree...for those that are unvaccinated.

Yes, the majority of hospitalizations and deaths are in the unvaccinated. That's a completely different topic, though.

 

[ExFlyBoy5]

Yes, the majority of hospitalizations and deaths are in the unvaccinated. That's a completely different topic, though.

Um...what? The last page and 1/2 has discussed DEATH because of COVID. My comment and the CDC data I shared is on point with that discussion.

Specifically, the incidents of death per 100,000 (at omicron emergence) is 230.9 for unvaccinated vs 0.5 for vaccinated.

 

[Gumby]

Yes, the majority of hospitalizations and deaths are in the unvaccinated. That's a completely different topic, though.

So that we don't head off down another rabbit hole, can we modify your statement to "the percentage of hospitalization and death among the unvaccinated is substantially higher than among the vaccinated" (consider the case where 95% of the people are vaccinated but the number of actual hospitalizations and deaths are numerically equal as between vaccinated and unvaccinated) Otherwise, nits are likely to be picked.

Um...what? The last page and 1/2 has discussed DEATH because of COVID. My comment and the CDC data I shared is on point with that discussion.

Specifically, the incidents of death per 100,000 (at omicron emergence) is 230.9 for unvaccinated vs 0.5 for vaccinated.

I think you guys are actually in violent agreement. So no need to get heated.

 

[Koolau]

So that we don't head off down another rabbit hole, can we modify your statement to "the percentage of hospitalization and death among the unvaccinated is substantially higher than among the vaccinated" (consider the case where 95% of the people are vaccinated but the number of actual hospitalizations and deaths are numerically equal as between vaccinated and unvaccinated) Otherwise, nits are likely to be picked.





I think you guys are actually in violent agreement. So no need to get heated.

Time for some grace all around I suppose. Even the scientists still disagree (and have since the beginning.) Like most post-mortems, let us hope, in a year or two, we will be able to look back on our collective Covid experience. We'll collate all the data and be able to report on what actually happened and learn much for the future. YMMV

 

[jimbee]

In the larger context, how about if we all presume that others are posting with good intentions and give them the benefit of the doubt when the wording is imprecise?

That would be great.

 

[dixonge]

Specifically, the incidents of death per 100,000 (at omicron emergence) is 230.9 for unvaccinated vs 0.5 for vaccinated.

I'm not finding those numbers in the link you shared. The average weekly incidence rate is .5 for vaxxed and 9.7 for unvaxxed. That's for just the first week of Omicron evidently, and the gap between the two is slightly narrower than under Delta. It's still a big gap, and you definitely don't want to get it unvaxxed.

I'd love to see the stats for all of December and January.

 

[Gumby]

I'm not finding those numbers in the link you shared. The average weekly incidence rate is .5 for vaxxed and 9.7 for unvaxxed. That's for just the first week of Omicron evidently, and the gap between the two is slightly narrower than under Delta. It's still a big gap, and you definitely don't want to get it unvaxxed.

I'd love to see the stats for all of December and January.

Find the 0.5 in the bottom right of the chart. Go straight up five rows and you'll see 230.9. ExFlyBoy5 should have gone left by two columns to compare the 0.5 to 9.7, as you point out. It was just a simple mistake. And the data actually does show that probability of death in the unvaccinated is higher than the vaccinated, so again no need for us to argue among ourselves.

 

[sengsational]

At 2,600/day, it would take just 23 days to match that 2017-18 tally.

I haven't done the numbers, but that sounds about right. Let's hope the weekly totals drop here as fast as those ahead of the US's omicron wave. I'm hoping for fewer.

 

[ivinsfan]

Find the 0.5 in the bottom right of the chart. Go straight up five rows and you'll see 230.9. ExFlyBoy5 should have gone left by two columns to compare the 0.5 to 9.7, as you point out. It was just a simple mistake. And the data actually does show that probability of death in the unvaccinated is higher than the vaccinated, so again no need for us to argue among ourselves.

My regional provider just updated the weekly way they report Covid numbers it's clear and concise and I think that's long over due.


They split the number between vaxxed and unvaxxed...then they show the number in ICU split between the vax and the un. Finally they show the number on a vent split between the vax and un.


You can tell at a glance if the trend is up or down for the week. Our trend has been down for 4 weeks in a row. No confusion over rows or columns!

 

[Markola]

The NYT Hot Spots map is stating to show a little more color lately, rather than the solid burgundy it was on Jan. 16.

 

[audreyh1]

Yes, it’s definitely better. Lots of dark red+ areas still though. Our county has a long way to go to get back to the low mid-Nov numbers we enjoyed for a while.

 

[JoeWras]

The NYT Hot Spots map is stating to show a little more color lately, rather than the solid burgundy it was on Jan. 16.

 

[Badger]

Not so good all across north Florida as usual. It becomes obvious when you go to grocery stores, entertainment, restaurants, and bars. A major reason why I only go to grocery stores with a list and knowledge of the floor plan. The rest I will leave to others willing to take their chances. Those who contribute to the burgundy due to their behavior will have to deal with their own problem.


Cheers!