Here is an example I used in another thread, so skip this if you've read it. Both investors have $10K in a bond fund in January, 2022.
Investor A - Sells bond fund in Jan 2022, buys short term Treasuries in 2022, rebuys the bond fund in 2023 or whenever the Fed has signaled that rates have topped out. Has $10,300 to invest in the bond fund with interest from the Treasuries.
Investor B - hangs onto their $10K bond fund until the Fed signals rates are going to level off. Has $8,000 in her bond fund in 2023.
Both A and B start making money in bond funds again once the big rate increases have stopped, but A will make more than B, because A's starting balance is $2.3K more. The difference now is we know rates are going to go up all this year per the Fed with almost 100% certainty, which will push bond prices down. And the Fed will let us know well in advance when they plan to taper off the rate increases. You can follow a mantra or you can follow the math. I would be interested in seeing the math from anyone who sees a way where investor B is going to come out ahead of investor A.