Where are we in the cycle?

[Markola]

 

[Markola]

I’m going to be optimist and say, Hope.

 

[38Chevy454]

I think we are still in the disbelief stage. Too much house of cards feeling for me currently.

 

[COcheesehead]

Disbelief

 

[MarieIG]

Actually, that's not a bad chart.

 

[target2019]

Denial.

 

[donheff]

I don't have a clue but it's gunna be different this time.

 

[Al18]

Denial

 

[Gumby]

Spin cycle. Time to empty out the dryer and start folding.

 

[MarieIG]

Spin cycle. Time to empty out the dryer and start folding.

 

[jimbee]

My impression is a lot of people are at the anger stage.

 

[ownyourfuture]

I'd say it depends on the sector.
For technology (especially semiconductors) or anything remotely related to A-I.... it's euphoria.

For a majority of the remaining sectors, anxiety.

 

[audreyh1]

Could it be complacency? On the other hand a whole lot of folks are still expecting a recession.

 

[Cayman]

Complacency for many I'd say.

 

[timbervest]

Spin dry.

 

[Markola]

So interesting. Given the low unemployment, the booming stock market, and the apparent end of rate hikes on the horizon, I assumed nearly everyone would have chosen either Disbelief, Hope or Optimism. Nope!

 

[Markola]

I’d like to amend my question: Where do you think we are in the cycle and WHY?

There are no wrong answers, as none of us have a clue, just informed opinions.

 

[dmpi]

Complacency. We're just waiting for the next crisis to show up. Eventually the experts will be right and we'll end up in a recession.

 

[razztazz]

So interesting. Given the low unemployment, the booming stock market, and the apparent end of rate hikes on the horizon, I assumed nearly everyone would have chosen either Disbelief, Hope or Optimism. Nope!

Just goes to show it's hard to see these things in real time. Always too close to the forest to see the trees. At the moment there's often enough reason to say we're anywhere along the spectrum.

 

[Northforker]

Complacency, we're all in a canoe in fast slick water, theres a sharp bend up ahead and a few can see the mist rising!

 

[Lsbcal]

Looking at the OP's chart and now looking at the SP500 over roughly 10 years:

I'm not quite seeing the color coding. Hmmm....
Perhaps there is some way of filtering to get the two to match?

 

[Alex The Great]

Capitulation? I remember a few members of this forum sold everything.

 

[target2019]

Looking at the OP's chart and now looking at the SP500 over roughly 10 years:

I'm not quite seeing the color coding. Hmmm....
Perhaps there is some way of filtering to get the two to match?

The OP chart is repeated in many iterations all over the internet. I could not find the first time it appeared. It may even be from a Wyckoff book.

In the upper right of the chart you see the theoretical cycle. So, that is what you would fit your S&P price history to.

Other thoughts that eat away at this are that QE, Covid, and Fed rate hikes have impact, and have distorted the "normal" cycle in some way.

Maybe apply a log function to the price data, and that will get you to a better fit?

 

[Markola]

^^^ The 200 Day Moving Average line encourages my stated guess that we’re close to Disbelief/Hope!

 

[Markola]

There are, at all times, plenty of reasons to make a strong case for a stock market plunge on the horizon. I’m trying to stop worrying and love the bomb.