Montecfo
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Recession remains my base case. It will happen whether Fed likes it or not.
But it seems to be Fed base case now also.
But it seems to be Fed base case now also.
I've been hearing this for a year, still no recession.Recession remains my base case. It will happen whether Fed likes it or not.
But it seems to be Fed base case now also.
I think the " home repairs", "grass cutting", "tree trimmers" part of the economy is rooted in just plain old greed. My neighbor got quotes to have his tree trimmed; his regular trimmer wasn't answering his phone. Bids went for $2400, $1600, and $1200. A week later, his regular guy called, explained he was getting radiation treatments, and called and said he'd be out and would charge his usual $600.
This has been a very long anticipated recession.I've been hearing this for a year, still no recession.
Don't forget that we did have two quarters of negative GDP growth last year, but that wasn't a "declared" recession.
The two quarters of declining GDP definition is a rule of thumb that does not officially define a recession. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) Business-Cycle Dating Committee, which certifies and dates U.S. business cycles, defines a recession as “a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and that lasts more than a few months.”
A stray thought that occurred to me recently is that sometimes what we automatically ascribe to inflation is actually due to something else.
I was looking at my car insurance bills, which have increased significantly in recent years, and just put it up to inflation due to repair costs.
But then I started looking at my statements more carefully, and noticed the part where they had started using my age as a factor in determining the costs. That made a lot of sense, since I'm definitely in that age range now.
We could probably have a new thread: pricing on old age - discrimination or actual need.
Expect to keep hearing it. We are just now hitting average time to recession after yield curve inversion. And the economy has a multi trillion dollar tailwind of deficit spending for the Fed to overcome.I've been hearing this for a year, still no recession.
Opportunistic I would say. But it is nothing new. Bids have varied widely as far back as I can remember.I think the " home repairs", "grass cutting", "tree trimmers" part of the economy is rooted in just plain old greed. My neighbor got quotes to have his tree trimmed; his regular trimmer wasn't answering his phone. Bids went for $2400, $1600, and $1200. A week later, his regular guy called, explained he was getting radiation treatments, and called and said he'd be out and would charge his usual $600.
How did they bring down inflation in the 80s?
Looking back, I must have been very lucky to get a job fresh out of college in 1981 (graduated Dec 1980). But at the time I was completely oblivious to all economic goings on.By causing lots of economic pain. Interest rates rose until a recession took over, causing unemployment of over 10%. It took almost 10 years for employment to fully recover.
Well the economy was still pretty good in Texas at that time.Looking back, I must have been very lucky to get a job fresh out of college in 1981 (graduated Dec 1980). But at the time I was completely oblivious to all economic goings on.
There was a thread of one's actual inflation rate and I agree, our actual overall inflation for our small household is nowhere near as high as posted by the powers that be. In fact it is down overall...
For example, if my transmission fails and I needed a new transmission (or a new vehicle), that would send my "personal inflation rate" way up for this year.
...I attribute it to shopping wisely due to increased sales prices and buying in bulk when prices were good, raising deductibles to reduce insurance costs, reduced cell phone costs, increased CC rewards through excellent offers and using those rewards for several awesome trips, negotiations with certain providers for lower costs and eating out less, a lot less. Found out cooking at home is much cheaper and quite enjoyable. We also had very low medical costs...
Volker raised rates to 16%. That's a lot of economic pain; he reduced rates just before Reagan's re-election (edit: due to the recession, I should clarify, although the raises probably contributed to Carter's loss of re-election and the decreases almost surely led to Reagan's re-election). Never underestimate how the Fed can mess you up, when you are young (I was young). But 16% rates will reduce inflation, eventually, as they did. Tall Paul.It took the Fed quite a while to crush inflation, but crush it Paul Volker did.How did they bring down inflation in the 80s?
Trouble was there were earlier abortive attempts. That is why it took so long.Volker raised rates to 16%. That's a lot of economic pain; he reduced rates just before Reagan's re-election (edit: due to the recession, I should clarify, although the raises probably contributed to Carter's loss of re-election and the decreases almost surely led to Reagan's re-election). Never underestimate how the Fed can mess you up, when you are young (I was young). But 16% rates will reduce inflation, eventually, as they did. Tall Paul.It took the Fed quite a while to crush inflation, but crush it Paul Volker did.
To me, though, that's not inflation. I never heard, and would never advocate, the concept of "personal inflation." Inflation, to me, is what the economy at some scale is doing. It can be looked at by region, but not by individual. There has to be some averaging, the way I've always heard the word used.
Thank you for saying that. I am in agreement. It reminds me of those who when discussing controversial issues talk about “your personal truth”. Opinions, life experiences, and such can be very personal. And they are relevant in many if not most discussions. But, just because the local Zippy Mart sold me stale doughnuts several times last year, does not mean all Zippy Mart owners are crooks and scoundrels.