Rich_by_the_Bay
Moderator Emeritus
Some of you know I'm a fan of Lucia's buckets of money for the most part.
But if I were, say 11 years into it as of 2 years ago I would have been some 75-80% in equities going into the recession (assuming moderate withdrawal rate of 4%, usual returns til that time, modest inflation). I would be eating Alpo now and quite close to selling low in the near future.
Ray tap dances around this possibility in his books and on his show, but says maybe you should rebalance a little bit along the way only when stocks are well higher than their presumed returns, etc. Of course the more you do so, the less you are adhering to the principle of leaving your stocks to grow for 14 years or more.
This current mess, rare as it may be historically, has me thinking that maybe Armstrong's withdrawal strategy might be better -- certainly is now for anyone already deeply into Lucia's pure Buckets approach. (Armstrong basically says rebalance annually, distributing your annual SWR from whichever bucket has done better than year - stocks v. bonds/cash (no longer than short term).
Am I getting this right?
But if I were, say 11 years into it as of 2 years ago I would have been some 75-80% in equities going into the recession (assuming moderate withdrawal rate of 4%, usual returns til that time, modest inflation). I would be eating Alpo now and quite close to selling low in the near future.
Ray tap dances around this possibility in his books and on his show, but says maybe you should rebalance a little bit along the way only when stocks are well higher than their presumed returns, etc. Of course the more you do so, the less you are adhering to the principle of leaving your stocks to grow for 14 years or more.
This current mess, rare as it may be historically, has me thinking that maybe Armstrong's withdrawal strategy might be better -- certainly is now for anyone already deeply into Lucia's pure Buckets approach. (Armstrong basically says rebalance annually, distributing your annual SWR from whichever bucket has done better than year - stocks v. bonds/cash (no longer than short term).
Am I getting this right?