Just curious as to the source of your oil price spike prediction. The folks in the TX oil patch would love it but I don't think they are forecasting anything like this, even in their wildest dreams.$4+ per gallon gas should dull any tax relief.
Crude oil prices will average $57/b in 2018.
$4+ per gallon gas should dull any tax relief.
Opening up ANWR helps us with this.Summary
U.S. crude oil production is likely to exit 2017 at roughly 10 million barrels per day, catching up with Saudi Arabia.
By the end of 2018, the U.S. is likely to bypass the #1 producer Russia (just under 11 million barrels per day currently).
Since 2014, the U.S. oil industry has made tremendous progress in productivity and is positioned to set new records in growth pace.
However, significant and quick investments in equipment and infrastructure will be required.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4134778-united-states-leapfrog-russia-2018-worlds-top-oil-producer
Remember Peak Oil? Didn't we hit that about 10 years ago and it's been all uphill for prices since then?
New investments in oil is mostly put on hold. And the amount that is stock piled is going down. The shale oil has been pumping but the lowest hanging fruit is getting exhausted there too.
So at some point it will become sellers market again. And the price will rice. And producers will staert thinking about new investmemts and new rigs but this is not done overnight. So the price will continue to rise.
If we get there in 2018 I do not know ofcourse. But I think we are heading in that direction.
Absent a major geopolitical event that is.
I agree that worldwide demand has increased, and supply has been somewhat constrained by OPEC. However there is so much production available at the margins, I think it's difficult for oil prices to rise much past 65 to $70 per barrel.
All the Artic ice was supposed to be gone by 2015, too...