Chart of the Day

[Running_Man]

 

[kgtest]

I may be late with this "chart", but I just snagged 15 yr refi for 2.75% I know there are some young dreamers that might want to tune into the historically low rates.

I just saved myself some $200k+ of future interest payments and dropped my interest rate 1.25% from 4%

 

[Running_Man]

The amount of negative yielding debt has doubled since last Oct 1st when the rise in rates came to an abrupt halt as the US stock market fell. Since then the market turned around but debt continues to go further negative.

 

[Running_Man]

http://www.crossingwallstreet.com/archives/2018/01/the-lost-bull-market-1949-1955.html

 

[Running_Man]

 

[target2019]

Wages growth year-over-year is trending down.
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/wage-growth

 

[target2019]

This focuses more on wages, with core inflation for comparison.
The previous posts with charts got me thinking, in the data, how much is wage and how much benefits? On another chart at the site I found wages is 70% of the dataset US Wages and Salaries Growth. So the chart I posted is just showing the wages component.

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/wages

So, this chart shows the wages component only, and it's growing.

 

[Running_Man]

 

[Running_Man]

Sept 2017 Warren Buffet said at 2 % Bonds are a terrible investment, since then BRK up 17%, Austrian 100 year 2.1% bonds up 50%. These still will most likely underperform BRKA in my lifetime, but if long term treasuries go negative to where the rest of the world is - Long Term Bonds will be the best performer for the intermediate term.

 

[Running_Man]

 

[Running_Man]

Greek 10 year bond about to fall beneath US 10 year Bond, In the world's eyes right now Greece is a better bet than the US for government issued debt.

 

[ERD50]

...
Greek 10 year bond about to fall beneath US 10 year Bond, In the world's eyes right now Greece is a better bet than the US for government issued debt.

Wow, I wondered, how can that be?

From the first hit on Google:

LONDON, July 8 (Reuters) - Greek bond yields hit new all-time lows on Monday after a weekend election saw Greece’s opposition conservatives return to power with an outright majority, sparking hopes of a renewed focus on strengthening the country’s economic recovery.

That's some pretty big hopes, at least if my recollection of how bad the Greek economy was recently. Or maybe it says something about the US economy, in relative terms?

-ERD50

 

[Running_Man]

Fireworks coming in July

So next week the FED cuts interest rates 50 basis points - if they don't cut 50 basis points, the markets much like December 2018 will quickly inform them of their mistake. Ironically I am expecting the US dollar to explode out of this rate cut. I think this is the biggest week in FED history, yet totally under the radar, since the decision to let Lehman go bust. The continued rise in equities is keeping the eyes off the spectacular issues with the complexities of the international markets and continuing financing of all the world's markets. I am going to love to see how this comes off. US 10 year bonds will not long stay above Greece 10 year bonds. It changes this coming week.

 

[Running_Man]

 

[Running_Man]

 

[HI Bill]

That trend isn't looking too good at the moment!

 

[Running_Man]

So next week the FED cuts interest rates 50 basis points - if they don't cut 50 basis points, the markets much like December 2018 will quickly inform them of their mistake. Ironically I am expecting the US dollar to explode out of this rate cut. I think this is the biggest week in FED history, yet totally under the radar, since the decision to let Lehman go bust. The continued rise in equities is keeping the eyes off the spectacular issues with the complexities of the international markets and continuing financing of all the world's markets. I am going to love to see how this comes off. US 10 year bonds will not long stay above Greece 10 year bonds. It changes this coming week.

Does the FED admit their mistake and make an unscheduled cut, they are allowing the inverted curve get away from them? Copper has now fallen below its 2016 low and is the lowest since the bottom of the 2009 recession. Greece 10 year is now 2.06 having fallen further but the US 10 year is now 1.73 percent rushing past the Greek bonds. The US dollar though has not gained in strength and is flattish since the disappointing rate cut. That is certainly helping the international market pressures.

It is interesting to see the results of these international strains try to be confined to a paragraph for investing purposes, we are living in uncharted waters were trillions are invested fully ok with losing nearly one percent every year for 10 years and it's thought to be the safest of investments. For the bulls hope, nearly everyone on CNBC is in agreement that always buying is the single best strategy any investor can have, at one point using example even if market were to fall as badly as 1987 it rose 10 fold within the next 30 years.

 

[Starsky]

I watched this excellent technical analysis presentation on Youtube that may be irrelevant given today's China news, but it shows the pattern in the market as-of this morning - so it could get much worse before it's over.

 

[Running_Man]

Interesting fact, when people state it's a big world out there in the world of investments, still US is still at this point the big dog.

 

[Running_Man]

We are now at 16 trillion of global debt with negative yields, I anticipate we will eventually get to an excess of 30 trillion of negative global debt, that will be something.

 

[Running_Man]

After yesterday we are up another 700 billion

 

[Dtail]

So will the USA reach a negative yield scenario?

 

[Running_Man]

 

[target2019]

Forward P/E
https://finviz.com/publish/082019/sec_all_fpe_110689945.png

 

[Cichon_007]

Fed's mandate

Does the FED admit their mistake and make an unscheduled cut, they are allowing the inverted curve get away from them?.

The Fed's mandate isn't to follow the rest of the world in to the toilet. What exactly would another 50 bps do for our economy? I don't think there's a single company out there holding off on investments or capital spending because supply of money is too tight. The Fed's mandate is stable prices, moderate long term rates and maximum employment.

If our economy has a problem it is on the demand side not the supply side.