Coronavirus - Financial, Health and Other impacts II

[Ronstar]

I got an email from the bed and breakfast that we are staying at in Bar Harbor, Me in August letting us know that they are a small inn and are greatly affected by cancelations. And that they would appreciate advance notice if we decide to cancel so that they can "try" to rebook the room.

I get the impression that sending out these type of emails almost 6 months ahead of time is not their normal protocol. Maybe they are starting to feel the affects of coronavirus on their bookings.

 

[LRDave]

My 401(K)/IRA have been up a bit each of the last three days.

This is a complete accident and not by design... And not repeatable I suspect....

 

[Brat]

Help me understand what happens to indexed loans if interest rates go negative. I can't picture that.

 

[brewer12345]

Help me understand what happens to indexed loans if interest rates go negative. I can't picture that.

They have a spread on top of the base rate and many/most have a floor. So if the base rate goes to -1% but the spread is 3%, the interest is 2%. If that loan has a 3% floor in the deal terms, interest charges don't go below 3%.

 

[michelek]

I got an email from the bed and breakfast that we are staying at in Bar Harbor, Me in August letting us know that they are a small inn and are greatly affected by cancelations. And that they would appreciate advance notice if we decide to cancel so that they can "try" to rebook the room.



I get the impression that sending out these type of emails almost 6 months ahead of time is not their normal protocol. Maybe they are starting to feel the affects of coronavirus on their bookings.

We operate an Airbnb ... just had the first reported case in our town... if people cancel our biggest months are March, April , May (summer is off) and then September-December are huge. I’m worried we will lose $100k in revenue

 

[braumeister]

Naked links will be removed as necessary.

 

[Dtail]

What did I say...haha...we are already more than half way there in futures at 575. Yeah, but wait 5 minutes

Not so quick..haha but

 

[rayinpenn]

I’ve heard a number of people comment about ‘just another flu’ and worse it only kills the old and infirm.” So I did some research and found this. What’s interesting is even for the very young the mortality rate is 10 times as great (2 out of 1000) vs (2 out of 10,000).

https://i.insider.com/5e5fc740fee23d14eb3dd212?width=1200&format=jpeg&auto=webp

 

[Ronstar]

I’ve heard a number of people comment about ‘just another flu’ and worse it only kills the old and infirm.” So I did some research and found this. What’s interesting is even for the very young the mortality rate is 10 times as great (2 out of 1000) vs (2 out of 10,000).

https://i.insider.com/5e5fc740fee23d14eb3dd212?width=1200&format=jpeg&auto=webp

Thanks for posting. I was wondering how the young are being affected. The youngest 3 age brackets for coronavirus all have the same exact pct. I find that hard to believe

 

[Bongleur]

I’ve heard a number of people comment about ‘just another flu’ and worse it only kills the old and infirm.” So I did some research and found this. What’s interesting is even for the very young the mortality rate is 10 times as great (2 out of 1000) vs (2 out of 10,000).

https://i.insider.com/5e5fc740fee23d14eb3dd212?width=1200&format=jpeg&auto=webp

What is the date of that dataset? ie when did the CDC post it?

 

[ripper1]

Not so quick..haha but

So up day tomorrow, Dtail? These market movements are breathtaking.

 

[Fermion]

I traded some more on the puts on SPY, 60 buys yesterday for May expiration at $270 strike, sold today for $10,300 profit at market open.

I feel kind of like I am stealing money from my wife's 401K and putting it in my IRA though. They are going to wave to each other as one goes up and the other goes down.

I guess we are going to keep seeing some wild swings because of the virus.

 

[Fermion]

I had a thought that online gaming might garner record profits during this time of limited travel and confinement. (I play World of Warcraft). I checked Activision and indeed, they are near 52 week high so I guess others had this thought too. Oh well.

Seems like people have thought through some of these things...

 

[NW-Bound]

Thanks for posting. I was wondering how the young are being affected. The youngest 3 age brackets for coronavirus all have the same exact pct. I find that hard to believe

The WHO report released on Feb 28 had this to say

Disease in children appears to be relatively rare and mild with approximately 2.4% of the total reported cases reported amongst individuals aged under 19 years. A very small proportion of those aged under 19 years have developed severe (2.5%) or critical disease (0.2%)...

Additionally, it noted that there was no evidence of a child being an asymptomatic virus carrier.

 

[BeachOrCity]

I traded some more on the puts on SPY, 60 buys yesterday for May expiration at $270 strike, sold today for $10,300 profit at market open.



I feel kind of like I am stealing money from my wife's 401K and putting it in my IRA though. They are going to wave to each other as one goes up and the other goes down.



I guess we are going to keep seeing some wild swings because of the virus.

I have 30 of the May puts but are holding them most likely til atleast mid April.

This in one way to make money off the volitility. I wish I was an experienced enough trader to understand how to make more. .

 

[audreyh1]

So up day tomorrow, Dtail? These market movements are breathtaking.

Very much reminds me of 2008.

 

[LRDave]

Very much reminds me of 2008.

I was wondering the same - 2008 was like this?

I was not paying too much attention and not doing anything to my positions and still investing every paycheck. Now as a recent retiree, I am looking at event through a different lens.

 

[brewer12345]

Very much reminds me of 2008.

Me, too. Wild volatility makes it hard to get comfortable.

 

[brewer12345]

I was wondering the same - 2008 was like this?

I was not paying too much attention and not doing anything to my positions and still investing every paycheck. Now as a recent retiree, I am looking at event through a different lens.

Yes, very similar. Huge swings day to day, with sentiment lunging between "bring out your dead" and "open the champagne" day to day.

 

[ziggy29]

I was wondering the same - 2008 was like this?

Yes. You pretty much knew the market would move 2% or more almost every day. The only question was whether it would be up or down (and in 2008, usually down).

 

[audreyh1]

With the VIX (CBOE volatility index) 40 or higher you see these crazy wild swings, and it is very unsettling to most people.

Such a high VIX can indicate “blood in the streets”, but IMO way too early for bottoms or capitulation. Things like this with a sudden black swan type disruption take a while to play out.

 

[Helen]

Very much reminds me of 2008.

This has been reminding me of the market swings before the high tech crash. I don't remember it right before the next crash but I think that's because I was with my Mom (R.I.P.) in the U.P. of Michigan with no internet or TV in the Fall of 2008.

 

[brewer12345]

This has been reminding me of the market swings before the high tech crash.

It is interesting to hear you say that. Seeing this pattern twice before (record equity market, huge swings as something bad happens, emergency rate cuts) and the subsequent plunges makes me think that the immediate outcome for us this time will likely be similar.

 

[NW-Bound]

I was wondering the same - 2008 was like this?

I was not paying too much attention and not doing anything to my positions and still investing every paycheck. Now as a recent retiree, I am looking at event through a different lens.

No, it is not as bad as 2008. Yet.

In 2008, there were days when the market went up/down +-7% and as high as +-10%/day.

I can go look up the numbers in my diary. Or anyone can go look that up on the Web.

So, +- 3%/day is nothing to sweat about.

 

[razztazz]

So, +- 3%/day is nothing to sweat about.

Actually with the frequency it is doing it, and in the environment in which it is doing it, it is in fact something to "sweat" about. (commands One's attention & concern) Just because it's not as bad as the worst as it could be or as bad as some point in the past doesn't mean it is not discernibly bad. Bad, by definition means: Bad enough to "sweat," which would also be subjective anyway.