Coronavirus - Health aspects

[REWahoo]

From the BBC:

Coronavirus: Largest study suggests elderly and sick are most at risk

Health officials in China have published the first details of more than 44,000 cases of Covid-19, in the biggest study since the outbreak began.

Data from the Chinese Centre for Disease Control and Prevention (CCDC) finds that more than 80% of the cases have been mild, with the sick and elderly most at risk.

It finds that 80.9% of infections are classified as mild, 13.8% as severe and only 4.7% as critical. The number of deaths among those infected, known as the fatality rate, remains low but rises among those over 80 years old.

The study also identifies which existing illnesses put patients at risk. It puts cardiovascular disease at number one, followed by diabetes, chronic respiratory disease and hypertension.

 

[MichaelB]

In addition to REWahoo’s post, from the same study

men are more likely to die (2.8%) than women (1.7%).

 

[rathgar]

I am constantly hearing how we should be more concerned with the flu than this coronavirus.
However, I awoke to this headline:

The new virus is deadlier than the one that causes the flu. NYT Feb 18

Can someone put this in perspective?


An analysis of 44,672 coronavirus patients in China whose diagnoses were confirmed by laboratory testing has found that 1,023 had died by Feb. 11. That’s a fatality rate of 2.3 percent. Figures released on a daily basis suggest the rate has further increased in recent days.

That is far higher than the mortality rate of the seasonal flu, with which the new coronavirus has sometimes been compared. In the United States, flu fatality rates hover around 0.1 percent.

The new analysis was posted online by researchers at the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention.

 

[brewer12345]

I am constantly hearing how we should be more concerned with the flu than this coronavirus.
However, I awoke to this headline:

The new virus is deadlier than the one that causes the flu. NYT Feb 18

Can someone put this in perspective?


An analysis of 44,672 coronavirus patients in China whose diagnoses were confirmed by laboratory testing has found that 1,023 had died by Feb. 11. That’s a fatality rate of 2.3 percent. Figures released on a daily basis suggest the rate has further increased in recent days.

That is far higher than the mortality rate of the seasonal flu, with which the new coronavirus has sometimes been compared. In the United States, flu fatality rates hover around 0.1 percent.

The new analysis was posted online by researchers at the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention.

It means that if this is as highly contagious as it appears and continues to run across the world, we are armpit deep in the septic tank and sinking.

 

[sengsational]

It looks like this pandemic will be about 10 times as deadly as the typical flu.


If that death rate graph a few posts back holds, the younger people have a lot less to worry about. They always say the very old and very young should get the annual flu shot, as they are the highest risk.



I saw that over the next two years they expect 60% of the world's population to get exposed. If that's true and 4% of the people over age 65 in North America succumb, that's 2 million people, right here on my continent. Wow. I hope I'm not reading this right.

 

[REWahoo]

It looks like this pandemic will be about 10 times as deadly as the typical flu.

If that death rate graph a few posts back holds, the younger people have a lot less to worry about. They always say the very old and very young should get the annual flu shot, as they are the highest risk.

I saw that over the next two years they expect 60% of the world's population to get exposed. If that's true and 4% of the people over age 65 in North America succumb, that's 2 million people, right here on my continent. Wow. I hope I'm not reading this right.

I'm not quite as pessimistic as these numbers indicate.

Remember that it is early days when it comes to understanding, diagnosing, treating and accurately documenting this disease. The actual number of infections is likely to be far higher than has been documented, which could mean the fatality rate is considerably lower. Plus, there are a number of anti-viral drug trials underway and vaccines in development. This could result in much improved ways to treat or prevent the disease.

 

[Sunset]

While the actual number of infections is likely to be higher, there are also a number of deaths at home that may simply go uncounted as they were never tested since China has a shortage/limit of test kits.

 

[NW-Bound]

At this point on Feb 18,

Total confirmed cases: 73,337
Deaths: 1,875
Recoveries: 13,140

The death rate outside of China remains low, compared to that inside Hubei province where Wuhan is.

 

[Tekward]

An analysis of 44,672 coronavirus patients in China whose diagnoses were confirmed by laboratory testing has found that 1,023 had died by Feb. 11. That’s a fatality rate of 2.3 percent. Figures released on a daily basis suggest the rate has further increased in recent days.

That is far higher than the mortality rate of the seasonal flu, with which the new coronavirus has sometimes been compared. In the United States, flu fatality rates hover around 0.1 percent.

Per NYT piece today it is >20x the fatality rate of the seasonal flu. Even more alarming to this group:
"Thirty percent of those who died were in their 60s, 30 percent were in their 70s and 20 percent were age 80 or older."

 

[rathgar]

That's a very concerning perspective.

 

[copyright1997reloaded]

If we're going with conspiracy theories, I'm actually going with the meteorite story posted earlier. Could the coronavirus have been sent by an alien intelligence? Ancient alien researchers say yes!

Nothing I posted has anything to do with conspiracy theory. Again, you resort to insult.

 

[MichaelB]

Why don’t you two take it offline.

 

[Brat]

Per NYT piece today it is >20x the fatality rate of the seasonal flu. Even more alarming to this group:
"Thirty percent of those who died were in their 60s, 30 percent were in their 70s and 20 percent were age 80 or older."

Humm... we should compare the fatality rate with representation in the population. From the 2010 US census, they are 9.47% (60's), 5.38% (70's), and 3.03% (80's).

Huge impact on seniors.

Consider for a moment the fact that many seniors live in CCRCs. I predict that almost all in nursing homes will succumb within weeks of infection. So many caregivers in nursing homes are paid barely above the minimum wage, I wouldn't want to be the person recruiting staff given the fact that they are at high risk of infection from workplace exposure.

 

[Bongleur]

The Chinese analysis also mentions:
>
The crude case fatality rate for patients with no comorbidities is approximately 0.9%, and the case fatality rate is much higher for patients with comorbidities, 10.5% for cardiovascular disease patients, 7.3% for diabetes, 6.3% for chronic respiratory disease, and 6.3% for hypertension. 6.0%, cancer was 5.6%
>

 

[NW-Bound]

The Chinese analysis also mentions:
>
The crude case fatality rate for patients with no comorbidities is approximately 0.9%, and the case fatality rate is much higher for patients with comorbidities, 10.5% for cardiovascular disease patients, 7.3% for diabetes, 6.3% for chronic respiratory disease, and 6.3% for hypertension. 6.0%, cancer was 5.6%
>

6.3% for hypertension. Darn! I have no chronic condition other than "essential hypertension" that is under control with cheap medicine ($10 per 3 months at Walmart).

Am I still susceptible?

"Thirty percent of those who died were in their 60s, 30 percent were in their 70s and 20 percent were age 80 or older."

Yes, that adds up to 80% for those over 60, the number I read earlier. I belong to that group, same as y'all.

Should I start SS now, instead of waiting till 70?

 

[Nemo2]

Am I still susceptible?

Susceptible to suggestion?

 

[NW-Bound]

When considering the numbers reported every day, it might be helpful to keep this piece from the NYT in mind. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/18/opinion/coronavirus-china-numbers.html

This article is behind a paywall. A free copy of it is available here: https://www.msn.com/en-gb/travel/ne...onavirus-numbers-wrong/ar-BB106LVr?li=BBoPWjQ.


Basically, the author says that we do not know the true fatality rate because of several factors that we already talk about here.

1) It is difficult to attribute some deaths to the virus or to existing chronic conditions.

2) The number of the infected is not accurately known. Some may be treated without formally confirmed. Some may not show symptoms.

3) The number of unresolved or indeterminate cases.

That last item bothers me greatly. There is a huge number of cases in limbo, compared to the deaths and recoveries. How long do they linger on? Perhaps if a patient died after a month or two, his cause of death would be classified as something else other than the virus?

 

[NW-Bound]

Susceptible to suggestion?

Eh, I will not be taking any cruise in the foreseeable future. I will not go through any airport either.

Still going to Costco and Home Depot, but I am willing to reduce the number of trips there if that is warranted.

 

[Tekward]

Should I start SS now, instead of waiting till 70?

Only if you cough.

Or sneeze.

Or have a tickle in the back of your neck
(that doesn't involve a feather)

 

[Nemo2]

https://www.thestar.com/news/world/...rs-day-on-japans-coronavirus-cruise-ship.html

TOKYO—A Kobe University doctor touched off a furor with a firsthand account of a virus-stricken cruise ship in which he accused Japan of doing a worse job protecting people than African nations and China.

Kentaro Iwata, who made the allegations in widely circulated YouTube videos after spending Tuesday aboard the Diamond Princess, told The Wall Street Journal in an interview that the crew should be removed as soon as possible because of the danger of catching the novel coronavirus on the ship.

 

[tmm99]

https://www.thestar.com/news/world/...rs-day-on-japans-coronavirus-cruise-ship.html

A very interesting video. Thank you for posting. I listened to the video and it is clear that the government didn't handle the situation well at all, and that they should have gotten assistance from infection experts. They messed it up royally. (Using the same signature sheet and most likely the pen? That is insane!)

I know the guy on the video wanted to rant that he was shut out from helping out from the very beginning (for being disliked by someone/some people for whatever reason) and that that seemed to be the main focus of the video, but I wish he also presented possible solutions that he could think of as an infectious doctor, such as what specific things they should have done and how.

I also don't understand that he's afraid of catching this virus himself after being on the cruise ship for a day... Did he go in half-hazardly without proper protection? Did he assume that the virus was contained in one area although this was a cruise ship with close quarters? I understand that there was no green zone and red zone on the ship from what he said, but I wish he told us how he would determine and specify an area as a green/red zone when we don't know who has the disease.

This is in hindsight, but initially, CDC/WHO was saying this virus is only caught when you are in close contact with infected individuals and that you probably aren't contagious until you start exhibiting symptoms, but we shouldn't have listened to any of that. And nobody seemed to be worried about contaminated surfaces at the beginning. We should have disinfected the whole ship including each cabin and not let anybody out of their rooms (that's if they couldn't find lodging on land (due to the high number of passengers).) OK, I'm sure that something radical like that won't fly, but that's my idea. Stick me in a cabin 24x14 and give me an iPad with WiFi; I can communicate with anybody from then on. Give me a thermometer, alcohol wipes, packaged food every day and I will wipe down the packages with the wipes. How many hours at the maximum do prisoners spend in a solitary cell? Give me a light therapy lightbox. That would take care of possible cabin fever.

 

[REWahoo]

Perhaps a bit of encouraging news:

Researchers at the University of Texas announced Wednesday they have made a critical breakthrough toward developing a vaccine for the new coronavirus, which has resulted in the deaths of 2,000 people and infected 75,000, most of them in mainland China.

The development, which is being published Wednesday in the journal Science, is an essential step toward developing vaccines and antiviral drugs to combat the virus, UT said in a statement.

Jason McLellan, an associate professor of molecular biosciences at UT, led a team of researchers in creating the first 3D atomic scale map of the spike protein — the part of the virus that attaches to and infects human cells.

https://www.statesman.com/news/2020...ical-breakthroughrsquo-in-coronavirus-vaccine

EDIT: From a W Post article on the same subject, likely behind a pay wall:

...they plan to work next on using the molecule they mapped to see if they can isolate antibodies produced by previously infected patients who have recovered from the virus — in hopes of producing a treatment for people soon after they are exposed to the virus.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/worl...4f_story.html#link-PQ74E532HQ7WNCDZ3Q7G3AVDVM

 

[NW-Bound]

Should I start SS now, instead of waiting till 70?

Only if you cough.

Or sneeze.

Or have a tickle in the back of your neck
(that doesn't involve a feather)

Given that SS Administration takes about 2 months to process the request, once I start to cough, might as well wait for a couple of weeks to see if my wife should start filing for survivor benefit instead.

 

[Sunset]

Given that SS Administration takes about 2 months to process the request, once I start to cough, might as well wait for a couple of weeks to see if my wife should start filing for survivor benefit instead.

If you are coughing, just go in to the SS office, the waiting room will clear out pretty quickly once you explain why you are coughing.
Then you will be the next person called

 

[NW-Bound]

^^^ Good point.

I will keep that in mind, when I come with my wife to the SS office for her to claim survivor benefit. With me coughing and in a wheel chair, it will be easier to explain to the SS clerk.

"But he's not dead yet"

"Well, he will soon be. Look at him. I want to get the ball rolling".