Coronavirus - Health aspects

[stepford]

It's so scary that it's possible we are watching the beginning of what will later be called the extinction event.

Isn't that just what the rest of life on Earth calls the rise of human civilization? Just think of all the happy critters if this does turn out to be the big one.

 

[travelover]

Isn't that just what the rest of life on Earth calls the rise of human civilization? Just think of all the happy critters if this does turn out to be the big one.

Some say the human race is a virus on the planet and it is doing its best to shake us off. In the long run they may be right.

 

[sengsational]

I am having math issues.

Deaths of those diagnosed by age
80+ 14.8%
70s 8.0%
60s 3.6%

Percent of US population by age
80+ 3.6%
70s 5.4%

Will everyone 80 or older who catches this virus die?

Not everyone. Accepting your numbers for the sake of explaining it, and taking the 80+ as the example:

14.8% of the 3.6% of the 80+ population will succumb. The US population is 330,314 K (thousand), so that, times .036 is about 11,891 K (80+). That, times 0.148 is 1,760 K. So that says 1.7 million US people age 80+ would perish.

I'm not sure where you got your expected fatality percent numbers, but they seem pessimistic.

 

[tmm99]

A Japanese woman who disembarked Diamond Princess after the 14-day quarantine tests positive for the coronavirus. (No surprise there!)

A Japanese woman in her 60s whose test result was negative on the 14th disembarked the ship on the 19th. She took a national shuttle bus, other public transportations and a private car driven by her friend to get home. She developed fever (101.7F) on the 21st and went to a medical facility on the 22nd. She has no cough, but she has pneumonia and tested positive for the coronavirus. It sounds like she had her mask on at all times except when she was home with her husband.
　

 

[sengsational]

Where is this ACE-2 receptor?

Throughout the body or in the lungs?

I don't know, but WikiPedia makes it look like a party.

 

[audreyh1]

A Japanese woman who disembarked Diamond Princess after the 14-day quarantine tests positive for the coronavirus.

A Japanese woman in her 60s whose test result was negative on the 14th disembarked the ship on the 19th. She took a national shuttle bus, other public transportations and a private car driven by her friend to get home. She developed fever (101.7F) on the 21st and went to a medical facility on the 22nd. She has no cough, but she has pneumonia and tested positive for the coronavirus. It sounds like she had her mask on at all times except when she was home with her husband.
　

Well of course. People on the Diamond Princess were increasingly exposed. Someone could have been infected the day they disembarked. It was ridiculous to call that a quarantine. Which is why the returned Americans have to go through 14 day quarantine on US soil.

 

[tmm99]

Well of course. People on the Diamond Princess were increasingly exposed. Someone could have been infected the day they disembarked. It was ridiculous to call that a quarantine. Which is why they returned Americans have to go through 14 day quarantine on US soil.

I thought I added "No surprise there!" but I guess the edit didn't take. Yes, this is totally expected as I mentioned in one of my earlier posts. Like I said, anybody in the right mind knows, except for the Japanese government officials.

 

[audreyh1]

Good news for Westerdam passengers and everybody else - the one woman that tested positive now tests negative and there are doubts that she was ever infected. https://www.usatoday.com/story/trav...m-passengers-lives-still-affected/4841819002/

The U.S. Centers for Disease Control on Friday said the 83-year-old American woman who was on the ship actually didn't have coronavirus, despite earlier tests that came back positive in Malaysia.

"I have confirmed that all the passengers were tested, and they have come back negative for coronavirus, including the person who initially tested positive," said CDC spokesperson Richard Quartarone. He said hospitalized woman "may have had a respiratory illness, but if she did, it was not COVID-19."

 

[NW-Bound]

Where is this ACE-2 receptor?

Throughout the body or in the lungs?

I don't know, but WikiPedia makes it look like a party.

Well, yea.

It's party time for the virus.

ACE2 stands for angiotensin-converting enzyme 2, whatever that means.

Angiotensin converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) is an exopeptidase that catalyses the conversion of angiotensin I to the nonapeptide angiotensin, or the conversion of angiotensin II to angiotensin 1-7. ACE2 has direct effects on cardiac function, and is expressed predominantly in vascular endothelial cells of the heart and the kidneys. ACE2 is not sensitive to the ACE inhibitor drugs used to treat hypertension.

ACE2 receptors have been shown to be the entry point into human cells for some coronaviruses, including the SARS virus. A number of studies have identified that the entry point is the same for SARS-CoV-2, the COVID-19 virus.

See the Wikipedia article here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Angiotensin-converting_enzyme_2.

 

[Bongleur]

This PDF won't copy & paste correctly... for the virus, what is important is the lungs:

bioRxiv preprint first posted online Jan. 26, 2020;
doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1101/2020.01.26.919985

Single-cell RNA expression profiling of ACE2, the putative receptor of [mod edit] 2019-nCov
Yu Zhao

The result indicates that the ACE2 virus receptor expression is concentrated in a small population of type II alveolar cells (AT2).

 

[NW-Bound]

An article found on the Web claims to have data showing that smoking increases the risk of the coronavirus via higher ACE2 receptor in the lungs. Even Asian former smokers have residual effects. Perhaps this explains the high death rate of the virus in China.

The author is an Assistant Professor at University of South Carolina.

Link is here: https://www.preprints.org/manuscript/202002.0051/v2.

Bulk and Single-Cell Transcriptomics Identify Tobacco-Use Disparity in Lung Gene Expression of ACE2, the Receptor of 2019-nCov
Guoshuai Cai *

Version 2 : Received: 12 February 2020 / Approved: 14 February 2020 / Online: 14 February 2020 (04:32:49 CET)

Abstract

In current severe global emergency situation of 2019-nCov outbreak, it is imperative to identify vulnerable and susceptible groups for effective protection and care. Recently, studies found that 2019-nCov and SARS-nCov share the same receptor, ACE2. In this study, we analyzed four large-scale bulk transcriptomic datasets of normal lung tissue and two single-cell transcriptomic datasets to investigate the disparities related to race, age, gender and smoking status in ACE2 gene expression and its distribution among cell types. We didn’t find significant disparities in ACE2 gene expression between racial groups (Asian vs Caucasian), age groups (>60 vs <60) or gender groups (male vs female). However, we observed significantly higher ACE2 gene expression in former smoker’s lung compared to non-smoker’s lung. Also, we found higher ACE2 gene expression in Asian current smokers compared to non-smokers but not in Caucasian current smokers, which may indicate an existence of gene-smoking interaction. In addition, we found that ACE2 gene is expressed in specific cell types related to smoking history and location. In bronchial epithelium, ACE2 is actively expressed in goblet cells of current smokers and club cells of non-smokers. In alveoli, ACE2 is actively expressed in remodelled AT2 cells of former smokers. Together, this study indicates that smokers especially former smokers may be more susceptible to 2019-nCov and have infection paths different with non-smokers. Thus, smoking history may provide valuable information in identifying susceptible population and standardizing treatment regimen.

PS. I just thought of something. Hubei province is an industrial area. Many photos of Wuhan show a smoggy cloud over the city. Could the industrial pollution of the air cause the same effects as smoking, and increase the death rate of the city residents? If so, Beijing with its well-known air pollution would be at the same risk.

See photo of Wuhan in 2009.

 

[GTFan]

It's so scary that it's possible we are watching the beginning of what will later be called the extinction event.

Really? Spanish Flu of 1918 was way worse and we're all still around.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/1918-pandemic-h1n1.html

10% estimated death rate over a third of the world's pop, which is really bad.

C'mon, don't do this 'extinction event' stuff for a virus. Will it be a pandemic? Yeah, looks like it. But we'll survive just fine.

Wait until the planetkiller asteroid shows up at the last minute, then we can all bend down and pray about an 'extinction event'.

 

[tmm99]

This person touches on the article NW posted and other factors that make smokers more vulnerable to the coronavirus (It's an easy read.)

https://drjessesantiano.com/3-reasons-why-smokers-have-worse-covid-19-outcomes/

Here is the title and bullet points:

3 Reasons Why Smokers Have Worse Covid-19 Outcomes

1. Covid-19 Sticks to Smokers Lungs More Easily
2. Smoking Plus Covid-19 Equals Acute Lung Injury and ARDS
3. Smoking Leads to Heart and Lung Diseases

 

[Bryan Barnfellow]

As of today, there are now 130 known cases in Italy, mainly focused on the Veneto region and Lombardy. The Venice Carnival has been shut down early and 10 towns in northern Lombardy (Milan is the capital of the province) have been locked down with no one allowed to enter/leave without permission.

This is all quite scary. My wife and I live in Lugano, Switzerland, just a couple of miles from the border with northern Italy (Lombardy)! We have friends there who are moving to second homes in the mountains to wait things out for now. Our canton of Ticino has about 62,000 workers who cross the border from Italy every day for jobs here. A fair number of the jobs are in restaurants and hotels.

We previously cancelled our trip to Vietnam for the month of February due to coronavirus concerns. Now we are finding it much closer to home.

-BB

 

[brewer12345]

As of today, there are now 130 known cases in Italy, mainly focused on the Veneto region and Lombardy. The Venice Carnival has been shut down early and 10 towns in northern Lombardy (Milan is the capital of the province) have been locked down with no one allowed to enter/leave without permission.

This is all quite scary. My wife and I live in Lugano, Switzerland, just a couple of miles from the border with northern Italy (Lombardy)! We have friends there who are moving to second homes in the mountains to wait things out for now. Our canton of Ticino has about 62,000 workers who cross the border from Italy every day for jobs here. A fair number of the jobs are in restaurants and hotels.

We previously cancelled our trip to Vietnam for the month of February due to coronavirus concerns. Now we are finding it much closer to home.

-BB

It may e fun to laugh at preppers, but if I were you I would be hitting the stores for enough food, etc. to hole up for a good while.

 

[Fermion]

It may e fun to laugh at preppers, but if I were you I would be hitting the stores for enough food, etc. to hole up for a good while.

Preppers are generally wrong 99% of the time, but boy those times they are right sure do pay off.

 

[brewer12345]

Preppers are generally wrong 99% of the time, but boy those times they are right sure do pay off.

I tend to regard stored food and the like as cheap insurance. As for a lot of the other stuff, a lot of it dovetails with my chosen lifestyle and hobbies (camping, hunting, fishing, leatherwork, learning to tan fur, beekeeping, gardening, etc.). I suppose I don't really have hobbies, I have a collection of post apocalyptic survival skills, heh.

 

[Bryan Barnfellow]

Thanks. My wife and I will be initiating these steps as of today:
1. Walk instead of using the public transit (bus) here in our small city. Use the car as necessary also.
2. Stock up on non-perishable food and supplies.
3. Stay out of cafes, restaurants for now.
4. Stay out of stores and away from public gatherings here.

She was supposed to have lunch with two local friends in Como this week (about a 20 minute drive). But they cancelled it.

Luckily we have a box of 50 face masks that I bought a years ago for the MERS outbreak. I was traveling to the Middle East a lot then. But I never used them. In any case, we wash our hands A LOT during the normal flu season, and that seems to be the most effective tactic. We also have sterilizing liquid and wipes.

I have asthma and some diminished lung capacity, so although I am only in my mid-sixties I think I fall into the "should be worried" category. The coronavirus is especially bad if your lower respiratory tract becomes infected.

If we take to the mountains, I plan to take along my copy of Bocaccio's "Decameron"!!

The Decameron ... is a collection of novellas by the 14th-century Italian author Giovanni Boccaccio (1313–1375). The book is structured as a frame story containing 100 tales told by a group of seven young women and three young men sheltering in a secluded villa just outside Florence to escape the Black Death, which was afflicting the city. Boccaccio probably conceived of The Decameron after the epidemic of 1348, and completed it by 1353. The various tales of love in The Decameron range from the erotic to the tragic. Tales of wit, practical jokes, and life lessons contribute to the mosaic. In addition to its literary value and widespread influence (for example on Chaucer's The Canterbury Tales), it provides a document of life at the time. Written in the vernacular of the Florentine language, it is considered a masterpiece of classical early Italian prose. (Wikipedia)


-BB

 

[Fermion]

I have mentioned it before, but in WWII (right after) my wife's mother and her parents used gold and silver to bribe their way from Latvia into western Germany, eventually making it to the USA (without even a dime left). I won't say they were preppers, but having the gold and silver likely saved their lives as all of her grandparents relatives were killed.

And this isn't some ancient history here.

 

[brewer12345]

Bryan B, as you stock up remember two words: toilet paper.

 

[Bryan Barnfellow]

Fermion,

Yes, I have a small store of gold that is held expressly for that purpose. Fascism/right wing extremism, are on the rise in Europe. As you say, these things are *not* ancient history.

Brewer,

Good point!

-BB

 

[brewer12345]

In the US we are extremely unprepared for anything but the constant arrival of everything we need in the supermarkets every day. I can only imagine what would be happening at the store if there were true panic unfolding and the average person realized that the store shelves might not get restocked multiple times a day. Ditto for gasoline and any other necessity of daily life. As I live on the edge of the largest city for hundreds of miles, I sure hope this does not play out.

 

[Fermion]

In the US we are extremely unprepared for anything but the constant arrival of everything we need in the supermarkets every day. I can only imagine what would be happening at the store if there were true panic unfolding and the average person realized that the store shelves might not get restocked multiple times a day. Ditto for gasoline and any other necessity of daily life. As I live on the edge of the largest city for hundreds of miles, I sure hope this does not play out.

I know. Imagine if we had a lockdown in the USA for virus reasons. I have seen the store shelves empty in Seattle when there is 1.5 inches of snow and it isn't even sticking to the road. It would probably make your head spin how fast the shelves would be depleted and there would not be any trucks making new deliveries until the national guard or something started arranging delivery of MRE and bottled water.

Right now I can walk into Wal-mart or Fred Meyer and buy 20 pounds of sugar, 10 pounds of coffee, etc. for almost nothing. Imagine having to tear a coupon out of a book to get your monthly allotment of 1 pound of coffee, or 2 rolls of toilet paper.

AFK for a bit, I think I am heading to the store.

 

[W2R]

Prepping?

Like Brewer, a lot of the youtubers that I listen to (on other topics) are urging their listeners to prepare just in case there is a pandemic. I have been pretty much blowing it off, until the past week or so. After all, we don't have a single case of coronavirus in Louisiana....

BUT... lately I have been thinking that maybe prepping for the possibility of a coronavirus outbreak here isn't such a dumb thing to do, as long as I don't use it as an excuse to gratify hyper-consumerist urges. Seems like Coronavirus is spreading pretty fast lately.

Usually for hurricane season I stock up about a month's worth of non-perishable foods in my pantry, and maybe a few gallons of bottled water. So, I thought, what the hey, I'll get those non-perishable foods now even though it's three months early. Consequently I have my hurricane food stash in place already. So far that is all that I have done. There is never a shortage of TP at my house. (To me,"being FI" is synonymous with "never ever having to fear running out of TP again". ) But I suppose some bottled water would be a logical next step.

 

[aja8888]

In the US we are extremely unprepared for anything but the constant arrival of everything we need in the supermarkets every day. I can only imagine what would be happening at the store if there were true panic unfolding and the average person realized that the store shelves might not get restocked multiple times a day. Ditto for gasoline and any other necessity of daily life. As I live on the edge of the largest city for hundreds of miles, I sure hope this does not play out.

During hurricane Harvey in Houston (50+ rain fell) in September 2017, my wife was in the hospital and had just had a heart valve replaced the first day of the rain. Due to flooding, the highways were closed and I could not get to the hospital for 5 days. Neither could hospital "supplies" and food. Nurses were stuck there and some doctors also. This is a big city hospital.

We live on the north fringe of Houston and a Walmart one mile from the house was closed after the third rain day due to nothing, and I mean NOTHING, on the shelves. We couldn't buy gasoline for a week, and we were not flooded.

I can't even imagine what's going on in China right now in that city of 11 million.