COVID-19 Shutdown Exit Strategy?
- Thread starter USGrant1962
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Midpack
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It was clear what Dr Birx was saying. She wasn’t more direct because the Pres was standing there.
brewer12345
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This is like the "hold my beer and watch this" restart plan.
MRG
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+1
Others can participate in this insanity, we aren't going to change anything for now. Let's see what happens when we allow this to go for the next month ortwo. My prediction is it's going to be very enlightening when science is proven correct.
Here is a link below on what a computer model developed by Epidemiologists at the IHME based their projected “threshold” dates for loosening restrictions. The dates are when the model suggests the rate of new daily infections will fall below 1 per million residents in a given state.
The "one per million" risk is an "acceptable" risk taught by my Environmental Risk Assessment class that I attended at UC Berkeley. The risk of being killed by lighting is about one per 800,000 so the one per 1,000,000 is generally acceptable by the public. Please note that the computer model results may change based on more recent data.
https://news.yahoo.com/coronavirus-computer-modelers-revise-dates-021424815.html
You can review the projected date when the one per million will be achieved for your state. Minnesota, Michigan and Virginia are also of interest based on a recent and well known tweet.
Like I stated previously, I am a positive person by nature and this recent model suggest a positive outcome for the State of California where I live. The link also discusses the negative side of the model for the negative people to make comments.
The "one per million" risk is an "acceptable" risk taught by my Environmental Risk Assessment class that I attended at UC Berkeley. The risk of being killed by lighting is about one per 800,000 so the one per 1,000,000 is generally acceptable by the public. Please note that the computer model results may change based on more recent data.
https://news.yahoo.com/coronavirus-computer-modelers-revise-dates-021424815.html
You can review the projected date when the one per million will be achieved for your state. Minnesota, Michigan and Virginia are also of interest based on a recent and well known tweet.
Like I stated previously, I am a positive person by nature and this recent model suggest a positive outcome for the State of California where I live. The link also discusses the negative side of the model for the negative people to make comments.
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GravitySucks
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If 20,000+ Wyomingers (Wyomingites?) died most NYers would be extremely concerned.
I don't think Wyoming needs the same lock down as NY. Heck my county doesn't need as an extreme shutdown as Downstate. In acknowledgement of that the regional hospitals are now being reopened for regular business.
I don't think Wyoming needs the same lock down as NY. Heck my county doesn't need as an extreme shutdown as Downstate. In acknowledgement of that the regional hospitals are now being reopened for regular business.
gwraigty
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Most of today's press conference dealt with Ohio's proposed exit strategy, although they're holding back on many of the details until later this week. Since that's the specific focus of this thread, I'm giving some paraphrased details here, since many of us are curious as to how the various states intend to handle this.
Effective immediately, some "elective" medical surgeries and diagnostic procedures that had been scheduled and then postponed due to the March order can be reassessed and may now proceed. Our Governor has heard some anecdotes of people suffering because their surgeries and procedures were cancelled. One example was a patient who had their scheduled hip surgery cancelled. That patient is now in a great deal of pain. He says they had no intention of postponing some of these procedures. The implication was there that the providers themselves misinterpreted the scope of the order.
I posted before that I guessed that states would want to reopen the economy when they ran out of money to keep paying unemployment benefits. Well, guess what? Our Lt. Governor talked about Ohio running out of money, both at the state level and local levels. Over 1 million people in Ohio became unemployed, out of the over 5 million that had been working before the shut down. Nationally, there are over 25 million unemployed, according to the latest figures they received. The national projections are that we could have 20% to 25% unemployment, as compared to 10% to 11% unemployment during the last financial crisis. Ohio tax revenues are significantly down, both income taxes and sales taxes. They can't print money at the state or local levels like the federal government can. Mayors throughout Ohio have said they're cutting as much as they can, but the only place left to cut is police and fire. They believe that the economic crisis will also lead to a growing health crisis other than from coronavirus.
The details of what types of businesses will be allowed to reopen and when, and what best practices they'll have to follow will be revealed either tomorrow or Friday. The Lt. Governor said that he'd be comfortable with himself or any of his loved ones going back to work under the proposed guidelines.
Here's a link if anyone is interested (start at about the 12 minute mark to avoid the introductory "feel good" stuff):
Gov. Mike DeWine Coronavirus Update, April 22, 2020
Effective immediately, some "elective" medical surgeries and diagnostic procedures that had been scheduled and then postponed due to the March order can be reassessed and may now proceed. Our Governor has heard some anecdotes of people suffering because their surgeries and procedures were cancelled. One example was a patient who had their scheduled hip surgery cancelled. That patient is now in a great deal of pain. He says they had no intention of postponing some of these procedures. The implication was there that the providers themselves misinterpreted the scope of the order.
I posted before that I guessed that states would want to reopen the economy when they ran out of money to keep paying unemployment benefits. Well, guess what? Our Lt. Governor talked about Ohio running out of money, both at the state level and local levels. Over 1 million people in Ohio became unemployed, out of the over 5 million that had been working before the shut down. Nationally, there are over 25 million unemployed, according to the latest figures they received. The national projections are that we could have 20% to 25% unemployment, as compared to 10% to 11% unemployment during the last financial crisis. Ohio tax revenues are significantly down, both income taxes and sales taxes. They can't print money at the state or local levels like the federal government can. Mayors throughout Ohio have said they're cutting as much as they can, but the only place left to cut is police and fire. They believe that the economic crisis will also lead to a growing health crisis other than from coronavirus.
The details of what types of businesses will be allowed to reopen and when, and what best practices they'll have to follow will be revealed either tomorrow or Friday. The Lt. Governor said that he'd be comfortable with himself or any of his loved ones going back to work under the proposed guidelines.
Here's a link if anyone is interested (start at about the 12 minute mark to avoid the introductory "feel good" stuff):
Gov. Mike DeWine Coronavirus Update, April 22, 2020
Ready
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Bowling alleys on Friday, restaurants on Monday.
Makes perfect sense. We all need to be able to bowl before we need food.
Makes perfect sense. We all need to be able to bowl before we need food.
Our Governor (Oklahoma) just announced a plan to reopen similar to Georgia's. Hair salons, barbershops, etc can open Friday and Restaurants, Gyms, Movie Theaters, Sporting Venues can open next week (May 1st).
DW already sent her hair stylist a text seeing if she's available.
According to the Washington University's model, we shouldn't open until after June 8th, but what do they know. Doesn't surprise me at all.
As I predicted nearly a month ago, we will continue the "safer at home" model where people over 65 are to stay home. I'm not sure if they are going to check ID's at the movie theater and turn away old people.
DW already sent her hair stylist a text seeing if she's available.
According to the Washington University's model, we shouldn't open until after June 8th, but what do they know. Doesn't surprise me at all.
As I predicted nearly a month ago, we will continue the "safer at home" model where people over 65 are to stay home. I'm not sure if they are going to check ID's at the movie theater and turn away old people.
California is still not ready to reopen the economy, but will start allowing some elective surgeries.
We are also starting to see numbers attached to the previous "indicators". We now know we need to be able to do 60K tests per day (just over 1% of the population per week) in order to have enough capacity to reopen.
Still have a shortage of testing swabs though.
https://www.sacbee.com/news/politics-government/capitol-alert/article242203266.html
We are also starting to see numbers attached to the previous "indicators". We now know we need to be able to do 60K tests per day (just over 1% of the population per week) in order to have enough capacity to reopen.
Still have a shortage of testing swabs though.
https://www.sacbee.com/news/politics-government/capitol-alert/article242203266.html
Winemaker
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Given the unexpected testing results that show that the California population has antibodies or positives, how do we know were not going through the second wave now?
Does it matter if we are? There's no limit to the number of waves, it could be 3 or it could be 10 or it could just come and go forever.
Also, if only 2% to 3% of the population got antibodies in a first wave, and we need 70% to get herd immunity, we have a very long way to go. Based on the patterns of other coronaviruses, those who have antibodies now are going to lose them long before we reach the ~70% level that's been hypothesized as necessary for herd immunity.
donheff
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I haven't seen any explanation for this weird choice of businesses. What about everybody else? Are all other businesses presumably open, or are they all supposed to stay closed?
In my state, I think the only thing that won't be open come May 1st is probably bars - which might open the 15th.
Interesting that the low number predicted by the model by August 4th has already been exceeded "The other discouraging word is that the projected U.S. death toll through Aug. 4 has been raised, from 60,308 to 65,976. There’s a wide interval of uncertainty to that figure: The institute says it could end up as low as 45,375 or as high as 124,120." The number of deaths according to https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ for the US as of today is 47,524.
OldShooter
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Humankind has never produced a model or a technique that was useful for forecasting the behavior of any complex system. No reason to expect this model to be the first success.
Dtail
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Well the Administration just disagreed with the choices of types of businesses opening in Georgia, but will not prevent it, so the choices in Oklahoma de facto would have the same disagreement.
audreyh1
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Well if US deaths are going up 2000 per day, then another 10 days we’ll be over 67,000. That’s early May, not early August.
Especially since the models started at 2.2 million deaths in the U.S. *with* strict social distancing (which we actually haven't done). Add in that some of the deaths weren't caused by COVID-19, and I question much of the numbers they're trying to model.
Dtail
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Didn't the Administration state that the projected 2.2m deaths was WITHOUT strict social distancing and if nothing was done with any preventive measures?
audreyh1
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Yes!
OldShooter
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I remember reading a good story, though probably apocryphal:
Well before D-Day the Army Met (erological) Office received a request from SHEAF HQ to forecast weather on a specific day two months in the future. "Impossible" was the Met guys' response. Again comes the request: "You must give us a forecast. We need it for planning purposes."
OP
OP
USGrant1962
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The March 16 Imperial College of London study forecast 2.2M U.S. deaths without protective measures, 1.2-1.4M with strict social distancing (actually suppression is the term they use - it did not model economic shutdown/collapse). I think it was the first major study that suggested massive overwhelming of ICUs even with social distancing, which of course didn't happen. It was also the study that seemed to be the tipping point on shutdowns.
Ready
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We appreciate your offer to be our canary in the cold mine. Let us know how it works out.
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