COVID-19 Shutdown Exit Strategy?

[audreyh1]

Interesting article on Georgia. A woman plans to open her hair salon on Friday and is already booked throughout the weekend with appointments. I think there are a lot of people who are ready to go back to their old routines without any significant concerns about getting the virus.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...-out-welcome-mat-others-fearful-idUSKCN2251HT

Not surprised. There are folks who will insist that it’s not that dangerous until someone they know comes down with a bad case, or they are exposed themselves.

Of course there is a huge backlog for haircuts!

But I notice others in the article that feel like they may be risking their lives to give haircuts, and aren’t willing to resume yet.

 

[Leo1277]

If you want other models to compare to, it seems more people trust the approaches and results taken by South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore, Germany and maybe Iceland. China may have done well, but there are more controversial reports to potentially discredit their results (somewhat). All results need to be normalized for population versus comparing raw numbers. All are planning on second waves using testing and contact tracing to closely monitor to keep the second wave somewhat contained. And it seems most other countries can rely on (or enforce) a public that will conform to official guidance, but that doesn’t mean most Americans won’t conform (some always will).

Good point; the Asian countries you mention are trying to follow the approach of "zero" cases before relaxing, and try to keep it that way by intense testing, contact tracing, and isolation of contacts. I mostly focused on China since they did this first (I guess because they got the virus first), so they are furthest along in the phase of sustaining the process.

In general so far these efforts look somewhat promising, except you always have to expect new flare-ups, like Singapore is having with its migrant work force right now. Germany is actually not quite there yet, they haven't been able to get their "new case" numbers low enough yet, but among Western countries, they are doing somewhat ok, relatively speaking. It helps to have a chancellor who is a scientist, and has a tight grip on the core concepts of epidemiology.

All this requires a sophisticated apparatus to be really on top of the testing, tracing, and isolating. In this context, it is also useful to consider that not only hospitals can get overwhelmed, but this testing apparatus needs to cope with the numbers and is also easily overwhelmed. I suspect that in the US, we are still missing the testing capabilities that are needed (as pointed out often), but also manpower for contact tracing, and possibly tight enough rules for isolation. Part of it is that the country contiunuously maintains a hospital infrastructure, but the testing infrastructure needs to be ramped up on demand.

 

[harllee]

My mother is one of those ladies who use to go to the hair salon every week to get her hair "done." Of course now she is having to make do on her own and she is not seeing anyone anyway. Anyhow her hair dresser called he yesterday to say she is retiring and will not be coming back to the salon she use to work at--she thinks it is too dangerous.

I hardly ever go to a hair salon anyway and DH and I are now cutting each other's hair and will continue to do so for the time being. I don't see how a salon can be safely opened now. I guess time will tell.

 

[Midpack]

I think since new outbreaks take a while, there will be an initial lull that looks like things are going OK, maybe long enough for more governors to move forward, then suddenly oops - not looking too good but too late.

This is exactly what many experts are expecting. The first to substantially reopen will declare victory in the first two weeks, and then they'll go quiet when the second wave really starts to show up. I'd expect a lot of eyes on GA after 3 weeks.

 

[mpeirce]

Not surprised. There are folks who will insist that it’s not that dangerous until someone they know comes down with a bad case, or they are exposed themselves.

I have a sister and a BIL who have/had it. It’s been no picnic - fever, aches, bad cough - but I guess unless they are in an ICU you might not consider that bad. Regardless, why would this change my mind?

People I know are concerned about C-19, but also concerned about keeping jobs and not letting the US economy slide in to a ditch. These things are always a trade off and it’s good there are people pulling in both directions.

I like the idea of federalism. Let the states try different approaches and we’ll see what works. No one really knows what the best option is at this point.

 

[audreyh1]

This is exactly what many experts are expecting. The first to substantially reopen will declare victory in the first two weeks, and then they'll go quiet when the second wave really starts to show up. I'd expect a lot of eyes on GA after 3 weeks.

Yeah, I figure it will take a month to see whether things are going fast out of control.

 

[Fermion]

Yeah, I figure it will take a month to see whether things are going fast out of control.

It is looking like the actual mortality rate is under 0.5% so how are things going to go fast out of control?

 

[brewer12345]

I don't know why you're baffled......

Our culture will not take well to rigorous contact tracing and the required consequences. The first few folks unwillingly separated from children, pulled out of their single proprietor businesses, forced to be quarantined in what they consider to be "icky" surroundings, etc., will be elevated to sainthood by the media. The politicians associated with the unwanted action will be demonized. It will be hard to win re-election after that.

I will go you one better. What happens when the authorities show up to quarantine someone and they resist?

 

[Ready]

It is looking like the actual mortality rate is under 0.5% so how are things going to go fast out of control?

A substantial increase in new cases of infection?

 

[mpeirce]

A substantial increase in new cases of infection?

The only two numbers worth watching are ICU admissions and deaths (which is a lagging number from ICU admissions).

So really just ICU admissions. As long as we don't overwhelm ICUs we're good. Until there is a vaccine and/or "everyone" has already had it.

The problem with "new cases" is that it's based of testing. Testing rate isn't a constant.

 

[brewer12345]

The only two numbers worth watching are ICU admissions and deaths (which is a lagging number from ICU admissions).

So really just ICU admissions. As long as we don't overwhelm ICUs we're good. Until there is a vaccine and/or "everyone" has already had it.

The problem with "new cases" is that it's based of testing. Easily manipulated.

Plugging up the hospitals is the real risk. That is when the death rate skyrockets. That and infecting nursing homes and similar vulnerable populations.

 

[audreyh1]

It is looking like the actual mortality rate is under 0.5% so how are things going to go fast out of control?

Overwhelming hospitals, especially in rural areas with limited medical resources. Already happened in GA.

 

[GTFan]

I live in GA and am wondering how many businesses are going to be willing to take the risk to re-open, even with sanitary measures. The liability risk for lawsuits will be huge and I'd bet the lawyers in this state are salivating at the prospect. All it will take is one outbreak traced to a business and the gates are wide open.

We are taking the Sweden approach of personal responsibilty but given the type of crowd I see in Walmart I'm not so sure we're the right place to start.

 

[gwraigty]

I don't know why you're baffled......

Our culture will not take well to rigorous contact tracing and the required consequences. The first few folks unwillingly separated from children, pulled out of their single proprietor businesses, forced to be quarantined in what they consider to be "icky" surroundings, etc., will be elevated to sainthood by the media. The politicians associated with the unwanted action will be demonized. It will be hard to win re-election after that.

+1

From a practical standpoint, my primary concern with contact tracing is that we are well past the beginnings of infection in the US. Based on my symptoms I already posted in another thread, it's quite possible that I had coronavirus with symptoms from January through early March. By extension, my other household members were also exposed, but were either asymptomatic or only mildly so as to not notice anything too much out of the ordinary in themselves. Therefore I'd strongly object to any attempt by a health department to force any of us into a quarantine for 14 days, unless we could be given an antibody test to prove that we were negative. There's a lot of others for whom this applies, including some forum members.

Theories don't always play out well in reality. I could envision someone being repeatedly forced into a 2 week quarantine because of different coworkers who test positive at different times. When would it end? How long would a business be able to tolerate the disruptions?

Here's another idea that's caused a great deal of protest (literally) in Ohio. Our state health director has repeatedly brought up the idea of issuing a certificate to people as proof that they already had coronavirus, so they could go about their business. Yesterday a reporter asked if that wouldn't go against health privacy laws? (Of course it would!) Our health director said that she wasn't all that knowledgeable about the laws in these matters, but she was thinking that it would be like a doctor's note you could show to your employer to prove you could work. (That still goes against privacy laws! How can a doctor not know about HIPPA?) Then our governor quickly said that the antibody testing would be mainly so that someone could know that it was safe for them to go out and about without fear of catching the coronavirus. I suspect that the reporter's question clued him in that her ideas might be illegal. He never tried to contradict the health director before.

So there's a lot of so-called experts coming up with all kinds of ideas that may or may not even be legal and spouting them off freely in front of the cameras. Maybe they need to start having a lawyer standing 6 feet away who could go "Shush" or give a hand signal when they start proposing things that are illegal. It'd make the press conferences shorter, too.

 

[Chuckanut]

Of course there is a huge backlog for haircuts!

yup

 

[Dtail]

yup

Yeah DGF and I noticed their hair is always done nice.

 

[neihn]

Yeah, I figure it will take a month to see whether things are going fast out of control.

Even after a month, we only find out if they actually doing test on sick people. They still don't have enough tests.

 

[Philliefan33]

PA governor Wolf released more information this morning on his plan to reopen the state. As counties/regions show improvement they will move from red -> yellow-> green. The whole state is in red now: stay-at-home order, only essential businesses open. In “yellow”, more businesses will open but curbside pickup is preferred, WFH should continue where feasible, no gatherings with more than 25 people. Restaurants would still only be allowed takeout service. “Green” would have as close to normal operations as possible, with health & safety guidelines being in place.

Obviously there are details to be worked out, but I feel that it’s a good start. I feel Wolf has been proactive from the beginning, and while he may have had a couple of missteps (for example not closing down Philadelphia County as soon as he should have) he’s done a good job overall.

 

[donheff]

I don't know why you're baffled......

Our culture will not take well to rigorous contact tracing and the required consequences. The first few folks unwillingly separated from children, pulled out of their single proprietor businesses, forced to be quarantined in what they consider to be "icky" surroundings, etc., will be elevated to sainthood by the media. The politicians associated with the unwanted action will be demonized. It will be hard to win re-election after that.

I will go you one better. What happens when the authorities show up to quarantine someone and they resist?

I agree that Americans would not put up with such tactics but I haven't heard of anyone proposing that we do that except in the early days with cruise passengers. For the general public, when people test positive they are told to quarantine themselves at home.

 

[audreyh1]

Even after a month, we only find out if they actually doing test on sick people. They still don't have enough tests.

Not really, because the hospitals will be clogged again regardless of the testing.

 

[Lienlord]

I think we should expect/prepare for a 2nd wave of illness, as it makes sense. Being in quarantine/shelter in place/prison (whatever you want to call it) has merely delayed the process of the virus working its way through the population. As I understood it, we were merely trying to slow it down to allow hospital capacity, not eradicate it in the first place.
I'm in OK, and our Governor said the reopening would be rolled out in phases, but hospital capacity would be monitored to make sure they can handle the rate of severely ill. But considering we never reached capacity the first time, after the virus spread unchecked for months, I don't think it will be an issue. The quarantine models predicted we'd peak tomorrow with 457 deaths, and we're at 170. So they missed the mark big time on their modeling, I assume due to bad data and underestimating the extent of the already affected population prior to quarantine.

 

[Midpack]

I think we should expect/prepare for a 2nd wave of illness, as it makes sense.

That’s the stated position of all the legitimate experts now including Fauci, Birx and Redfield - they’re on record.

 

[harllee]

In North Carolina our Gov. Roy Cooper just announced he was extending our stay home order another 10 days until at least May 8. Our number of cases and deaths continues to grow so we have not leveled out yet. Our Governor is listening to the experts and is a smart man--I knew him from college.

 

[W2R]

In North Carolina our Gov. Roy Cooper just announced he was extending our stay home order another 10 days until at least May 8. Our number of cases and deaths continues to grow so we have not leveled out yet. Our Governor is listening to the experts and is a smart man--I knew him from college.

Here in New Orleans apparently the present plan is for all restrictions and advisories to stay in place until at least May 15th. That's fine with me, even though our COVID-19 situation is greatly improved by now. The other states who want to can "test the waters", so to speak.

 

[garyt]

Here is a link on the vaccine research regarding SARS and MERS and COVID19.

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/sci...no-vaccine-sars-or-mers-will-there-be-one-new

The article implied that there is no vaccine for SARS and MERS because the epidemic was over and there was no incentive to continue. This is stated as follows in the article:

The first human trial of a possible Sars vaccine was conducted in Beijing in December 2004, but by that time the epidemic was over, and research into other diseases was given priority so it was shelved.

If the epidemic for COVID19 ends quickly...then you are probably right in that a CoVID-19 vaccine may not be developed.

However, if COVID19 persists, a vaccine is more likely. This is stated as follows in the article:

According to scientists, that depends on whether it comes back. If the epidemic is only for this year, then the answer is no. But if Covid-19 recurs, then the answer is yes.

However, Covid-19 has just destroyed the global economy so there may be public and political pressure to continue development of a Covid-19 vaccine.

We live in interesting times.

I read where Baylor U was making progress on a vaccine because they used the SARS vaccine research as a start