COVID-19 Shutdown Exit Strategy?

[Ready]

Today I could feel myself really losing my patience with this stay at home order. I had more than 20,000 people visit the beach by our home, so it feels like a joke at this point to stay at home. The whole country is mocking us on the news.

But even forgetting about that, I just don’t see what the end game is here. The virus is not going away. California has more than adequate hospital capacity. A vaccine may come some day or it may not. And we can’t hide out in our houses forever. Our state is hoping to get to the point where we can conduct 25,000 tests per day. But with 40 million people here that seems like a drop in the bucket.

How much longer can we hide in our homes? And no matter how much we flatten the curve, how are we going to ever keep it flat if we need to reopen the economy and let people go back to work? This just seems like delaying the inevitable to me. I don’t feel like we have a plan that accomplishes anything here and we are at 45 days of lockdown with no end date in sight.

I’m feeling really frustrated tonight. I just don’t get it.

 

[Mr. Tightwad]

Today I could feel myself really losing my patience with this stay at home order. I had more than 20,000 people visit the beach by our home, so it feels like a joke at this point to stay at home. The whole country is mocking us on the news.

But even forgetting about that, I just don’t see what the end game is here. The virus is not going away. California has more than adequate hospital capacity. A vaccine may come some day or it may not. And we can’t hide out in our houses forever. Our state is hoping to get to the point where we can conduct 25,000 tests per day. But with 40 million people here that seems like a drop in the bucket.

How much longer can we hide in our homes? And no matter how much we flatten the curve, how are we going to ever keep it flat if we need to reopen the economy and let people go back to work? This just seems like delaying the inevitable to me. I don’t feel like we have a plan that accomplishes anything here and we are at 45 days of lockdown with no end date in sight.

I’m feeling really frustrated tonight. I just don’t get it.

There will be 20,000 more coming tomorrow. Probably more because it will be warmer. And very few of them are concerned about the virus. You care, they don't.

Accept that they are coming and go on with your day. Don't let your blood pressure go up over this.

 

[martyp]

Today I could feel myself really losing my patience with this stay at home order. I had more than 20,000 people visit the beach by our home, so it feels like a joke at this point to stay at home. The whole country is mocking us on the news.

But even forgetting about that, I just don’t see what the end game is here. The virus is not going away. California has more than adequate hospital capacity. A vaccine may come some day or it may not. And we can’t hide out in our houses forever. Our state is hoping to get to the point where we can conduct 25,000 tests per day. But with 40 million people here that seems like a drop in the bucket.

How much longer can we hide in our homes? And no matter how much we flatten the curve, how are we going to ever keep it flat if we need to reopen the economy and let people go back to work? This just seems like delaying the inevitable to me. I don’t feel like we have a plan that accomplishes anything here and we are at 45 days of lockdown with no end date in sight.

I’m feeling really frustrated tonight. I just don’t get it.

I have to agree with you.

People advocating for opening the economy are often accused of trying to equate going to the beach vs deaths. Those photos of California beaches don't help. The shutdown has much more dire consequences that do warrant weighing opening up the economy along with managing the medical consequences as best you can.

 

[stepford]

Our state is hoping to get to the point where we can conduct 25,000 tests per day. But with 40 million people here that seems like a drop in the bucket.

How much longer can we hide in our homes? And no matter how much we flatten the curve, how are we going to ever keep it flat if we need to reopen the economy and let people go back to work? This just seems like delaying the inevitable to me. I don’t feel like we have a plan that accomplishes anything here and we are at 45 days of lockdown with no end date in sight.

I’m feeling really frustrated tonight. I just don’t get it.

Right now there are around 1500 new cases in CA per day. Most models I've seen suggest that with our current lockdown this will drop considerably within a month or two - not to zero, not to where we can just go back to normal, but down to a few hundred or hopefully less. At that point we do a gradual reopening and those 25000 tests/day may actually be enough to track and suppress new outbreaks. That's the idea anyway.

Total lockdown vs throwing everything wide open again is a false choice. It'll be something in between.

 

[martyp]

Right now there are around 1500 new cases in CA per day. Most models I've seen suggest that with our current lockdown this will drop considerably within a month or two - not to zero, not to where we can just go back to normal, but down to a few hundred or hopefully less. At that point we do a gradual reopening and those 25000 tests/day may actually be enough to track and suppress new outbreaks. That's the idea anyway.

Total lockdown vs throwing everything wide open again is a false choice. It'll be something in between.

Almost nobody is advocating for an unrestricted re-opening. However, if government starts to do things the make no obvious sense like re-opening a beach and not enforcing social distancing at the same time then you are going to get more and more people who are just going to ignore government.

 

[brewer12345]

Today I could feel myself really losing my patience with this stay at home order. I had more than 20,000 people visit the beach by our home, so it feels like a joke at this point to stay at home. The whole country is mocking us on the news.

But even forgetting about that, I just don’t see what the end game is here. The virus is not going away. California has more than adequate hospital capacity. A vaccine may come some day or it may not. And we can’t hide out in our houses forever. Our state is hoping to get to the point where we can conduct 25,000 tests per day. But with 40 million people here that seems like a drop in the bucket.

How much longer can we hide in our homes? And no matter how much we flatten the curve, how are we going to ever keep it flat if we need to reopen the economy and let people go back to work? This just seems like delaying the inevitable to me. I don’t feel like we have a plan that accomplishes anything here and we are at 45 days of lockdown with no end date in sight.

I’m feeling really frustrated tonight. I just don’t get it.

The goal is to avoid another Italy. I don't know how to make it any simpler.

 

[Ready]

The problem with Orange County is that we never mandate anything. We tell people it would be nice if they wear face masks in public, but many elect not to.

We say you really should not be going to the beach, but then the city sends out a public tweet announcing that the beach is open and everyone is doing a great job social distancing. We ask the beach goers not to park in the residential neighborhoods but provide zero enforcement when they do.

What’s the point of hiding in our house while 40,000 people congregate in front of my house on the beach? How is that going to flatten the curve. We either need to make these things mandatory or quit pretending that we are making any meaningful progress.

New infections in Orange County were down to 25 on April 21st, but then we had the protesters, followed by the beach goers. And then on April 25 we spiked up to 132 new cases. The governor wants us to get down to 3 cases per day in Orange County. That is never going to happen with the beaches open.

And if we close the beaches we will just have more protests. And even though they are not supposed to gather in public, the police just stand around and do absolutely nothing to break them up.

 

[brewer12345]

If the people around me act like retards and the second wave ignites with a vengeance, me joining in will not help. All you can control is what you do.

 

[Sunset]

The problem with Orange County is that we never mandate anything. We tell people it would be nice if they wear face masks in public, but many elect not to.

We say you really should not be going to the beach, but then the city sends out a public tweet announcing that the beach is open and everyone is doing a great job social distancing. We ask the beach goers not to park in the residential neighborhoods but provide zero enforcement when they do.

What’s the point of hiding in our house while 40,000 people congregate in front of my house on the beach? How is that going to flatten the curve. We either need to make these things mandatory or quit pretending that we are making any meaningful progress.

New infections in Orange County were down to 25 on April 21st, but then we had the protesters, followed by the beach goers. And then on April 25 we spiked up to 132 new cases. The governor wants us to get down to 3 cases per day in Orange County. That is never going to happen with the beaches open.

And if we close the beaches we will just have more protests. And even though they are not supposed to gather in public, the police just stand around and do absolutely nothing to break them up.

I would look at it as all those people are going to increase the rate of herd immunity, as some of them are carriers and will pass it on to others.

That's good news for you. Maybe send out a tweet about free beer at the beach

 

[2177V]

Today I could feel myself really losing my patience with this stay at home order. I had more than 20,000 people visit the beach by our home, so it feels like a joke at this point to stay at home. The whole country is mocking us on the news.

But even forgetting about that, I just don’t see what the end game is here. The virus is not going away. California has more than adequate hospital capacity. A vaccine may come some day or it may not. And we can’t hide out in our houses forever. Our state is hoping to get to the point where we can conduct 25,000 tests per day. But with 40 million people here that seems like a drop in the bucket.

How much longer can we hide in our homes? And no matter how much we flatten the curve, how are we going to ever keep it flat if we need to reopen the economy and let people go back to work? This just seems like delaying the inevitable to me. I don’t feel like we have a plan that accomplishes anything here and we are at 45 days of lockdown with no end date in sight.

I’m feeling really frustrated tonight. I just don’t get it.

I am with you. I live in the San Francisco Bay and they just announced today that the shelter in place will be extended to the end of May. What! I was expected May 15.

Our Governor did the right thing by closing California early which is a few days after the San Francisco Bay area shutdown. The curve has been flatten and my county just reported no new deaths and no new cases from the previous day.

My business is generating zero revenues and I have monthly expenses. I also feel like I am under house arrest. I share your frustration!

All they have to do is open the economy a little, but maintain social distancing, wear masks, make sure everyone washes their hands, and have police enforces no large assembly like at the beaches. Everything should be OK with these restrictions.

 

[harllee]

Ironically the woman who is leading the NCReopen protests in my state has come down with Covid-19. I assume that many of the protestors were exposed because there was no social distancing.

 

[donheff]

I am not at a California beach so I can't speak to how close strangers are to each other but where I live even though people are out and about they are pretty careful about keeping a distance and wearing masks. No one wears masks at beaches but they can keep apart. TV cameras looking down a beach compress the view significantly making it look like people are on top of each other. I have seen pictures from Jacksonville, FL that look tight followed almost immediately by close in views that look like most people are separated in small family groups and couples. If most beach visitors are a little concerned, maybe these beaches are not quite spring break.

The point of social distancing is to slow the growth of the virus so hospitals are not overwhelmed. If that can be achieved we are in pretty good shape and at risk individuals can stay isolated as best they can to avoid getting sick. More and more people will slowly get infected and more and more will die but not necessarily in a manner that is disastrous for the rest.

If distancing fails utterly as we open up we are in trouble. Either way, we will know soon.

 

[audreyh1]

Ironically the woman who is leading the NCReopen protests in my state has come down with Covid-19. I assume that many of the protestors were exposed because there was no social distancing.

She had already contracted it and is upset that 14 day required quarantine which ended last Sunday violates her civil rights.

“As an asymptomatic COVID19 positive patient (quarantine ends 4/26),” Whitlock posted on Sunday, “another concern I have is the treatment of COVID patients as it relates to other communicable diseases. I have been forced to quarantine in my home for 2 weeks.”

Attempts to reach Whitlock for comment Sunday and Monday were unsuccessful. The News & Observer’s news partner, ABC-11, reported that Whitlock confirmed she tested positive but refused comment when asked whether she attended ReOpen NC’s protests in downtown Raleigh the last two Tuesdays.

In the information Whitlock posted on ReOpen NC’s private Facebook page, she complained that the quarantine violated her civil rights.

https://www.newsobserver.com/news/local/article242317346.html

 

[Markola]

Ironically the woman who is leading the NCReopen protests in my state has come down with Covid-19. I assume that many of the protestors were exposed because there was no social distancing.

I’d pick a different word than “Ironically.”

 

[harllee]

I’d pick a different word than “Ironically.”

I can think of many other words to describe this lady but I don't want to get this thread locked.

 

[MrsHaloFIRE]

How in the world did she get tested as asymptomatic presumably 14 days prior to the end of her quarantine so mid april?

 

[audreyh1]

How in the world did she get tested as asymptomatic presumably 14 days prior to the end of her quarantine so mid april?

Contact tracing? Someone she had been exposed to got sick and let her know? At least she got tested. What she did with that information.....

 

[Rustic23]

I can think of many other words to describe this lady but I don't want to get this thread locked.

Poetic Justice comes to mind.

 

[harllee]

How in the world did she get tested as asymptomatic presumably 14 days prior to the end of her quarantine so mid april?

According to the local paper she and her family went on a trip in February. After returning 3 members of her household got sick and tested positive for Covid 19. She says she has no symptoms but tested positive. (Don't know how she got tested because the only people being tested around here are those with symptoms--maybe she knew somebody). The way I read the article (sort of confusing) she may have been retested recently and continues to test positive so maybe she is a carrier?

 

[audreyh1]

Poetic Justice comes to mind.

Well, considering she already tested positive, it was't about her not getting sick. It is about her not making other's sick while she is sick.

 

[gwraigty]

I haven’t followed Ohio, but I’ve heard DeWine has gotten good marks on handling the virus response. The steps above make sense on the face of it, way more than GA.

I don't know if you read the info in the links, but DeWine is now backtracking on his decision yesterday to make wearing masks mandatory. Yesterday it was "No mask, no work, no service, no exceptions." He just said minutes ago that he's revising it to be a recommendation instead of a mandate. The protocol now reads, "Recommend face coverings for employees and clients/customers." No matter where one stands on this particular issue vs. any other in this whole pandemic, this sort of flip-flopping isn't helping matters.

ETA: Here are links to articles about this issue:

Today: Face masks will not be mandated for Ohio's retail customers, DeWine says

Ohio Governor Mike DeWine said Tuesday that he will not mandate retail customers to wear face masks.

As part of DeWine's gradual reopening plan, the governor said Monday that all retail employees will be asked to wear masks.

DeWine said he understands mandatory mask-wearing could be offensive for some people. Additionally, DeWine said wearing a mask will be a "strong recommendation," but it won't be mandatory.

Yesterday: Gov. DeWine lays out plan for gradual reopening of Ohio, beginning May 1

DeWine said all businesses that are reopening will need to employ the following safe business practices:

Require face coverings for employees and clients/customers at all times

 

[Lienlord]

I don't know if you read the info in the links, but DeWine is now backtracking on his decision yesterday to make wearing masks mandatory. Yesterday it was "No mask, no work, no service, no exceptions." He just said minutes ago that he's revising it to be a recommendation instead of a mandate. The protocol now reads, "Recommend face coverings for employees and clients/customers." No matter where one stands on this particular issue vs. any other in this whole pandemic, this sort of flip-flopping isn't helping matters.

Perhaps this question has come up on this or another thread...what are the repercussions of NOT wearing a face mask in public if the Governor requiring it? Arrest? Ticket? Wet Willie?

Has this issue been tested in a court yet? I know this whole quarantine drama has created a lot of 1st Amendment questions.

 

[PatrickA5]

I don't know if you read the info in the links, but DeWine is now backtracking on his decision yesterday to make wearing masks mandatory. Yesterday it was "No mask, no work, no service, no exceptions." He just said minutes ago that he's revising it to be a recommendation instead of a mandate. The protocol now reads, "Recommend face coverings for employees and clients/customers." No matter where one stands on this particular issue vs. any other in this whole pandemic, this sort of flip-flopping isn't helping matters.

That didn't take long. My Governor and Mayor "strongly" encourage everyone to wear a mask since we're opening up early. DW and I always wear ours, but we're in the minority. Reading comments on a local website - apparently not wearing a mask is a "God given right" and having to wear one is an infringement on freedom itself. The most prevalent comments is "I'm not afraid of the virus, so I don't need to wear one" - which totally misses the point of why wearing a mask is a good idea in the first place.

 

[Aerides]

Perhaps this question has come up on this or another thread...what are the repercussions of NOT wearing a face mask in public if the Governor requiring it? Arrest? Ticket? Wet Willie?

Has this issue been tested in a court yet? I know this whole quarantine drama has created a lot of 1st Amendment questions.

In my state, it is "strongly recommended" and my grocery store has a sign saying please wear one to enter. From most of what I've read, those not wearing them have been asked to comply or leave, or offered a face covering to comply.

 

[statsman]

My guess is that many stores are going to *require* masks long after the lockdowns are rescinded. We haven't even begun to enter the legal ramifications of COVID-19 on our society. A lot of people are suffering and some will suffer more as we go forward. But not the lawyers.