Do You Think There Will Be An Available Vaccine By The End of The Year?

[rk911]

available? yup. safe and effective? that's the real question.

 

[Ronstar]

I believe sufficient political pressure will be applied to the CDC and FDA to release some form of vaccine by year end, and big pharma will give it their best shot. My fear is the resulting product will only offer a modest (statistically significant) protection, along with some nasty side affects. The consumer will be left to wonder if it is worth taking. I hope I am wrong.

+1

 

[jollystomper]

My pondering is, will people expect a vaccine to be as effective as the flu vaccine, or more effective than the flu vaccine, to deem it a "success".

 

[travelover]

Even if they do, the conspiracy theorists, and anti-vaxxers will just shun it. So maybe they can just put it in the jets that are already making the “chemtrails” ;-)

I'm waiting to be sure I get the one with the microchip.

 

[brewer12345]

available? yup. safe and effective? that's the real question.

Exactly.

 

[Car-Guy]

As I understand it, there are several vaccines in clinical trials already. So the answer is yes. So will one of them be safe, effective and in mass production by year end. HIIK. But as I said in another related thread, I'm not going to rush to the front of the line.

 

[Spock]

We have zero, zip, nada information about this bug. Only generic 30 year old data that applies to all viruses.. "wash your hands".
With crap data/statistics on the spread of the bug and the disease it causes, I don't see believable statistics on the efficacy of a vaccine magically being available to convince people to take it.

History does matter. A normal vaccine takes 5ish years. Fast tracking one (or more) to 18 months still puts this well into next year at the earliest.

Lastly. There has never been a vaccine for any coronavirus. This virus targets attachment in the lungs which medically speaking is pretty much the same as the surface of you outer skin (vs. the bloodstream).

So having one out this year? ahhhh... no.

 

[Alan]

I watched a documentary this week on the search for a vaccine, effective treatment or other methods to get through the pandemic and they did a short segment on trials done looking for treatment of the common cold. The research facility is long since gone and used to have the nickname “Colditz”. They showed film from the early 70’s where they did a trial infecting a load of volunteers with cold viruses - they looked like typical students of the time earning a bit extra cash.

They squirted both rhino and corona cold virus strains up the noses of the subjects who nearly all came down with cold symptoms. One year later they brought them all back and repeated the process. Those that had been infected with the rhino strain had immunity and did not catch the cold, but the others all developed symptoms showing that they had failed to build lasting immunity from the corona strains.

 

[Chuckanut]

We have zero, zip, nada information about this bug. Only generic 30 year old data that applies to all viruses.. "wash your hands".

I have to disagree. I suggest listening to this interview with Dr. Ralph Baric who has been studying corona viruses since the 1990's.

https://www.peoplespharmacy.com/articles/show-1211-a-conversation-with-the-coronavirus-hunter

Thanks to work done earlier before we knew about this version of the virus, we have a handle on a few existing drugs that may help treat people who become badly infected.

 

[Turbo29]

Exclusive: A quarter of Americans are hesitant about a coronavirus vaccine - Reuters/Ipsos poll
(Reuters) - A quarter of Americans have little or no interest in taking a coronavirus vaccine, a Reuters/Ipsos poll published on Thursday found, with some voicing concern that the record pace at which vaccine candidates are being developed could compromise safety.



https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...irus-vaccine-reuters-ipsos-poll-idUSKBN22X19G

 

[Turbo29]

Coronavirus vaccines for aniimals have been a mixed bag.


" Several veterinary coronavirus vaccines are currently available, but their efficacy is variable. The vaccine for prevention of infectious bronchitis virus (IBV), which infects chickens, is effective [30], but the canine and porcine vaccines are only partially effective [31]. The feline infectious peritonitis (FIP) vaccine is actually deleterious to the health of the animal and is discussed in further detail below [32]."


https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7115537/

 

[Midpack]

History does matter. A normal vaccine takes 5ish years. Fast tracking one (or more) to 18 months still puts this well into next year at the earliest.

How vaccines are developed has changed substantially, 20+ years of genomics for instance. So history may not be representative, e.g. “5ish years.”

But none of us here have any idea when/if there will be a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine. The FDA has never approved any coronavirus vaccine before, so this would be the first - but there’s so much riding on getting past this outbreak, might happen.

 

[MarieIG]

My opinion is there is a 50/50 chance of a vaccine being "available" before the end of the year.

However, by "available" I mean that distribution will have started.

In spite of all the work being done by the Administration and private sector to have companies pre-manufacture syringes and ramp up the plants for manufacturing the vaccine, I would still think that the manufacturing process; along with the shipping; followed by the administration of the vaccine would take an additional three months.

 

[Spock]

How vaccines are developed has changed substantially, 20+ years of genomics for instance. So history may not be representative, e.g. “5ish years.”

But none of us here have any idea when/if there will be a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine. The FDA has never approved any coronavirus vaccine before, so this would be the first - but there’s so much riding on getting past this outbreak, might happen.

I agreee we know a lot more... the DNA (RNA?) sequence of this virus was allegedly published out of India within weeks of it making the news.
But. Knowledge has not translated into ability. The increase knowledge has not resulted in new vaccines for problematic viruses spewing out of a pipeline. For example, HIV does not have a vaccine, only anti-viral treatments. I have nothing to back it up, but I strongly suspect the "5 year typical cycle" for bringing new vaccines to market already includes the acceleration of recent knowledge/techniques.

Whatever. The bottom line is we can't stay locked up for the duration of even the fastest/most optimistic proposed timeline. We're going to have to adapt and learn how to live with it.

 

[GalaxyBoy]

Not sure why it’s relevant whether a bunch of non scientists “think” a vaccine will be developed in a given period of time.

 

[RAE]

Not sure why it’s relevant whether a bunch of non scientists “think” a vaccine will be developed in a given period of time.

I don't necessarily agree that the thread is "irrelevant". Certainly not everyone who has an opinion about this is a scientist (although there are some on the forum), but well-informed people can have opinions about topics that they are not experts in. Heck, a lot of threads on this forum would fit into that category. You are always free to disregard anyone's opinion about anything, if you choose to (or just skip the whole thread, if that is easier for you).

 

[Spock]

Not sure why it’s relevant whether a bunch of non scientists “think” a vaccine will be developed in a given period of time.

Cuz the scientists don't know squat about this virus and its going to take civilian push back to stop the nonsense coming from a lot of governors and mayors. People think this is the movies where the next scene has planes dropping boxes of vaccines into far away places so that everybody and their dog can be vaccinated... so "we'll stay locked down until a vaccine is available.".

 

[easysurfer]

Just saw a discussion today on the morning news about talk of possible challenge trials on humans to speed up knowledge if a possible vaccine works or not.

In other words, give the person the vaccine, then give the person the virus and see what happens.

I guess desperate times calls for desperate measures .

 

[RobbieB]

Yeah, offer compensation of 10 grand and volunteers will line up at the door.

 

[rk911]

Yeah, offer compensation of 10 grand and volunteers will line up at the door.

10-large is not nearly enough for anyone brave enough to take one step forward.

human history is replete with “...i wonder what will happen if i _______ (eat, drink, do, etc. ) this”.

 

[RobbieB]

Not for us eh? But there's a lot of people for whom 10 grand is a fortune!

 

[easysurfer]

Not for us eh? But there's a lot of people for whom 10 grand is a fortune!

Mikey, might try it for free. "Mikey, he likes it". Remember that old cereal commercial? Poor Mikey.

I bet for 1 grand there'd be takers.

 

[RobbieB]

No doubt.

 

[Sunset]

Not for us eh? But there's a lot of people for whom 10 grand is a fortune!

Or offer 20 years or freedom off a life sentence criminal, to make the public calm don't offer it to serial or mass murderers.

 

[Sunset]

Could be, but you need to have about 60-65% of the population exposed before herd immunity is approached. Latest estimate of the percentage of the U.S. population exposed so far is about 5%. So it would take a few years, minimum, to get to 60% - unless all social distancing is dropped now, in which case it wouldn't take nearly as long.

And about 1->1.5 Million dead.
Which sounded like a lot 4 months ago, but we are over 10% of the way there.