Anyone plan on buying one of the new electric cars?
I'm intrigued, and we might buy one after two or three more years. Almost certainly before 2020. But we think we can go down to a single-car family (Prius) and a plug-in hybrid is way better than an EV for just one car. My hope is that EV production will drive down everyone's plug-in hybrid prices.
An EV can make a great second car or commuter beater on Oahu. We rarely drive more than 40 miles in a day and the vast majority of it is on roads at 50 MPH or less. (During rush hours, everything here is less than 30 MPH!)
I think GM was concerned about EV1's battery life. One of the biggest problems with lead-acid EV conversions is the short battery life. One of the biggest problems with Li-Ion conversions is the high cost, and back then it wasn't proven technology. Even Prius didn't really get in the hybrid swing until 2004, nearly seven years after starting assembly-line production.
A little off topic: Nissan LEAF operating cost versus Conventional Corolla.
constant electricity price of $0.10/kwh
10 years, 100,000 miles cost:
Battery replacement at 100,000miles: $10,000
For me, gas price has to be $5/gal or higher to justify the purchase of the Nissan Leaf. What's your take?
Lemme nitpick a little.
First, inflation is commonly ignored during photovoltaic and power-generation paybacks. Yet even 3% inflation over 10 years is over a 30% price rise. If the calculation is going to go out that far, 30% seems like a significant error worth taking into account.
Second, there's no indication that a Prius requires a battery replacement after 10 years. They've been in Japan since 1997 and many American Prii (especially fleet vehicles) have over 100K miles even though they're well short of 10 years. The current battery failure/replacement rate is a hassle if it happens to you, but it isn't a significant factor in the cost calculation any more than having to factor in the car's accident rates or depreciation or lightning strikes.
Now lemme whine a little: I'd love to buy electricity at 10 cents/KWHr, and neighbor islands hit $4 gas during 2008. EVs make no sense for many American road-trip lifestyles, but they're practically tailor-made for small islands with isolated power grids who import all their oil. In Hawaii, the govt is happily paying local commercial PV power providers 30 cents/KWHr fixed for 20 years, even though HECO's current rates are regulated at 23 cents/KWHr. Our cheapest gas is currently around $3.10/gallon, and that will probably rise at least 3% per year. Neighbor islands are 30-45 cents/KWHr and $4-$5/gal gas.
Plug-in hybrid & EV costs are compelling for us. Over the last eight years this ER family has burned between $1000-$1400/year on gas. In our case, our 3300-watt photovoltaic array will have paid back its initial cost in tax credits & kilowatt-hours by September. (Yes, I am a nuke. I log our monthly production and HECO's monthly rates on our spreadsheet.) Even by the most conservative opportunity-cost accounting (assuming we'd invested the original cost in late 2004 in a fund compounding 6% APY, hah!) it'll overtake a 6% APY investment by 2015. My back-of-the-envelope calculations indicate that recharging our EV would probably take the output of another entire 3 KW PV array. I can confidently bottom-fish the inverter and panels from eBay and manufacturer's seconds at less than $15K, maybe even less than $12K, build our own racks from scrap metal on hand, assemble it all again with DIY labor, immediately take approx $7800-$9750 in state/fed tax credits, and save at least $1000/year on gas.