Finally sold TSLA

[rodi]

Does this mean one non-conforming post by one person can make the whole thread go "poof"? That doesn't seem right. Can you just delete the offending post and ban the member who wrote it?

Please review the community rules. All moderation is done as a team and threads can be taken offline while the team forms a consensus.

 

[braumeister]

Does this mean one non-conforming post by one person can make the whole thread go "poof"? That doesn't seem right. Can you just delete the offending post and ban the member who wrote it?

It might be wise to review our Community Rules, specifically this section:

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This forum is largely self-policing, which means that moderators will respond and react to problems reported through the REPORT POST option, via the CONTACT FORM at the bottom of each page, or via PM. Do not hesitate to use these tools to report any problems regarding the forum.

 

[MichealKnight]

I'm late to TSLA

Admittedly - I'm late. I'm just a fellow who is would be ecstatic to make a an average yearly return of 6% total portfolio.

That being said about 3% of my nest-egg is set aside to do some short term trading and mild speculating.

I got into TSLA for $1200 perhaps a month ago. It's been up to $1700ish.

And here is my fruit-loopy reason for not selling at $1700 a few days ago....

Mr Musk (who seems to have a cult following and throngs of hero worshippers)....was GLOATING. He sold "short shorts" and was taunting shorters of the stock, and taunting the SEC.

I gotta believe - someone with an ego is not going to loudly gloat....if he thinks he has bad news coming around the bend. Quite the opposite i would think.

Again - it's a flimsy reason to hold but thats it for me. Then again - it's about .85% of my portfolio so it's not like i'm sending Musk the milk money.

 

[Chuckanut]

I don't blame Mr. Musk for pegging the Gloat-O-Meter at the high end of the scale.
Last year the critics were predicting that Telsa would not make it past mid 2019 at best without being sold to a 'real' automaker or just folding their tent and dying. He has a lot to gloat about.

Not that I am recommending purchase of Tesla stock or a Tesla automobile. I will stick with my index funds and my Hybrid RAV4 - 46 mpg on a short 200 mile road trip earlier this week.

 

[RetiredAtThirty-eight]

I don't blame Mr. Musk for pegging the Gloat-O-Meter at the high end of the scale.
Last year the critics were predicting that Telsa would not make it past mid 2019 at best without being sold to a 'real' automaker or just folding their tent and dying. He has a lot to gloat about.

It appears Musk has no human compassion. I mean, most of those short-sellers have families and homes. Doesn't he care that he is bankrupting them? How cruel! He should have at least warned them what was coming!

 

[NW-Bound]

It's easy for short sellers to forget what John Maynard Keynes said about 90 years ago.

“Markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.” -- John Maynard Keynes

I have never shorted any stock, although there were many cases in the past I later wished I did. Timing the market is hard.

The only thing close to shorting I did was to buy put options on Carnival and Marriott earlier this year. And I did that as a lark and did not put that much money into it, so the gain was small. I will even look up these trades to entertain you.

Carnival:

On 2/10/2020 bought 4 CCL July put contracts 37.5, paid $801.40
On 2/28/2020 sold 2 contracts, got $1579.27
On 5/5/2020 sold remaining 2 contracts, got $4599.20

Marriott:

On 3/3/2020 bought 2 MAR July put contracts 90, paid $740.70
On 5/5/2020 sold for $2459.25


The gains were not a lot of money, but it's of course fun to have. The above were the only time I made a bet on something going down. And my timing was not all that great, because I could have made a lot more money with the above options if I got out at a better time. The gains were minuscule compared to the loss on my long-term holdings during that market crash, so were nothing to gloat about.

PS. Oops, forgot that I have occasionally bought some bear ETFs in the past. Again, did it as a lark and did not make or lose that much money. Only a few hundred bucks of gain or loss each time. I will not bother to look that up.

PPS. I just realized that the above contracts on CCL and MAR just expired yesterday (7/17/2020). I stopped following these stocks after I closed out the trades. Had I still kept the Marriott contracts, would have lost all of my money because MAR recovered and closed at 91.48 on Friday. Heh heh heh...

 

[Lakewood90712]

Does this mean one non-conforming post by one person can make the whole thread go "poof"? That doesn't seem right. Can you just delete the offending post and ban the member who wrote it?

At least one other Tesla thread has been shutsown. It does not go " poof " and disapear forever. If it is shutdown , it will re apear , just closed to new posts. EDIT , the member is usually NOT banned.

Been around here for 15 years , and on the early retirement homepage before that. I do not always agree with the mods, but this place does need a Sherrif from time to time.

 

[RetiredAtThirty-eight]

TSLA powered higher today to a new all-time high (up $142/share just today!) so my net worth continues to grow like gang-busters after 20 years of retiring early!

Tesla earnings come out Wednesday after the closing bell. Analyst consensus is for a GAAP loss which would keep TSLA ineligible for S&P 500 inclusion.

What is the earnings consensus here at ERO? GAAP profit or loss?

 

[RetiredAtThirty-eight]

Oh, I forgot (or maybe I thought it would be obvious), I'm projecting Tesla's fourth GAAP profitable quarter in a row. Yup, going against the "professionals".

Go Tesla!

 

[RetiredAtThirty-eight]

TSLA powered higher today to a new all-time high (up $142/share just today!) so my net worth continues to grow like gang-busters after 20 years of retiring early!

Tesla earnings come out Wednesday after the closing bell. Analyst consensus is for a GAAP loss which would keep TSLA ineligible for S&P 500 inclusion.

What is the earnings consensus here at ERO? GAAP profit or loss?

It looks like no one wanted to be brave and guess Tesla's performance through the Coronavirus disruption!

Once again, Tesla outperformed the mainstream financial analysts by a wide margin by posting a GAAP profit of $104 million dollars and non-GAAP per share profit of $2.18 vs. analysts consensus non-GAAP loss of $0.11.

One could be forgiven for thinking the professional Wall Street analysts should be able to better calibrate their forecasts given that every quarter they are far too low!

 

[MRG]

I was expecting a drop. Didn't happen. Still want to pick up a few more shares I'll probably wait for the dust to settle some.

 

[NW-Bound]

I am neither long nor short Tesla, so have not looked at its financial statements. Just saw an article mentioning that in the last quarter just reported, Tesla made a lot of money by selling ZEV credit, to the tune of $4700 per car that it sold. Wow! That's huge.

And over the last 4 quarters, the ZEV credit came to almost $1 billion. Amazing.

 

[RetiredAtThirty-eight]

I am neither long nor short Tesla, so have not looked at its financial statements. Just saw an article mentioning that in the last quarter just reported, Tesla made a lot of money by selling ZEV credit, to the tune of $4700 per car that it sold. Wow! That's huge.

And over the last 4 quarters, the ZEV credit came to almost $1 billion. Amazing.

They are in the right business, that's for sure! Unfortunately, the Federal Tax Credit of $7,500 that buyers of their EV's were eligible dried up long ago. The naysayers said that would cause demand for their products to dry up but they still sell every car they can make.

During the conference call they indicated they will recognize twice as much in ZEV (Zero-emission vehicle) credits this year as last year. So it's a revenue stream that's growing as fast as production.

As to the $4,700 per car sold, that's a bit misleading because they recognize the credits in a "lumpy" fashion. The exact amount they get and when they recognize it depends upon whatever deals they make in the open market. Every automaker makes plays on an equal footing here. If Mazda could figure out how to make and sell EV's in bigger volumes they could sell their excesses to any maker who needed them too. The credits are basically like a license to pollute above the set standards.

 

[NW-Bound]

That ZEV penalty should have spurred other car makers to make more EVs, even to sell them at a loss. They have got to get moving.

 

[RetiredAtThirty-eight]

That ZEV penalty should have spurred other car makers to make more EVs, even to sell them at a loss. They have got to get moving.

I know, the big auto manufacturers keep telling us how great their EV technology is but I want them to show us, not tell us! Talk is cheap. I guess the unveil of the electric F-150 was delayed yet again.

 

[Chuckanut]

+1

In the words of Elon Musk when a big-shot at ULA said their plan to recover rocket engines by parachute would be far more successful than landing and reusing the entire booster - "Do it".

 

[NW-Bound]

The huge $4700/car ZEV credit that Tesla gets still shows that EVs are still expensive to make, compared to what the common people can and are willing to pay. Tesla would be deep in the red, if it were not for this ZEV credit.

When the manufacturing cost of the lithium battery goes down, there will be more EVs on the market. More battery factories are coming on line in the next few years. It will be interesting to see what happens.

 

[Markola]

The huge $4700/car ZEV credit that Tesla gets still shows that EVs are still expensive to make, compared to what the common people can and are willing to pay. Tesla would be deep in the red, if it were not for this ZEV credit.

When the manufacturing cost of the lithium battery goes down, there will be more EVs on the market. More battery factories are coming on line in the next few years. It will be interesting to see what happens.

Yeah, I read that the efficiencies of battery evolution have plateaued for now but Musk thinks battery manufacturing efficiencies can still be had.

 

[RetiredAtThirty-eight]

The huge $4700/car ZEV credit that Tesla gets still shows that EVs are still expensive to make, compared to what the common people can and are willing to pay. Tesla would be deep in the red, if it were not for this ZEV credit.

When the manufacturing cost of the lithium battery goes down, there will be more EVs on the market. More battery factories are coming on line in the next few years. It will be interesting to see what happens.

EV's cost more that old style combustion cars upfront but they have significantly lower operational costs. A brand new Model 3 costs $39K and while it's true that not everyone can afford a brand new car costing $39K, the market for cars at $39K and above is huge, about 40% of the entire auto market. The average new car in the United States costs about $37K and is not nearly as nice as a $39K Tesla.

Tesla doesn't get $4700 ZEV credit per car. They sell them on the open market to the highest bidder (and they recognize the income in a lumpy fashion). So to get the actual average amount per car you would have to average, at a minimum, an entire year for the amount to be representative. If other carmakers would actually step up to the plate and produce zero emission cars in any number, they could sell their credits too. If enough of them produced zero emission cars in large volume, there would no longer be a market for ZEV credits and our American cities would have cleaner air and a more pleasant ambiance. Health care costs would decline. People would live longer on average. There would be less asthma and COPD (to name but just two increased by tailpipe emissions). Why anyone would argue this is not a good thing is beyond me.

This is real income and it has been growing for Tesla, not shrinking. Complaining that this revenue shouldn't be counted would be similar to complaining that a clothing brand named after a fashion designer shouldn't be able to count the extra revenue they get for the brand name because the clothes aren't any better made than a similar copy-cat label that sells for 60% as much. Selling the clothing for more under aa designer label is a valid business strategy as long as it works.

The ZEV credits are a fact of the automotive industry and a company would be foolish not to take advantage of them if they have the technical ability to do so. Sure, it's a business tailwind, so what?

 

[RetiredAtThirty-eight]

Yeah, I read that the efficiencies of battery evolution have plateaued for now but Musk thinks battery manufacturing efficiencies can still be had.

That flies in the face of actual market data. Why don't you include the source for that claim?

Because there is a lot of anti-EV "information" out there that is just plain incorrect.

 

[RetiredAtThirty-eight]

In the words of Elon Musk when a big-shot at ULA said their plan to recover rocket engines by parachute would be far more successful than landing and reusing the entire booster - "Do it".

So far, no one has "done it" (recovered a orbital class booster rocket by parachute for re-use). However, as you know, Musks company Space-X regularly lands it's booster for re-use saving millions of dollars in launch costs. NASA now pays about 10% as much per launch compared to the cost when they used expendable rockets.

The taxpayer savings are huge!

 

[NW-Bound]

Tesla doesn't get $4700 ZEV credit per car. They sell them on the open market to the highest bidder (and they recognize the income in a lumpy fashion). So to get the actual average amount per car you would have to average, at a minimum, an entire year for the amount to be representative. If other carmakers would actually step up to the plate and produce zero emission cars in any number, they could sell their credits too...

Correct. The article I read said that instead of paying Tesla $4700/car, other makers would have to pay a penalty of $5000/car.

The formula for the ZEV credit/penalty is not straightforward. The following Web page explains it, but I am not interested enough to wade through it.

https://www.ucsusa.org/resources/what-zev

The ZEV credits are a fact of the automotive industry and a company would be foolish not to take advantage of them if they have the technical ability to do so. Sure, it's a business tailwind, so what?

Of course nobody is so stupid to not take all the credit that the law allows. The question is whether that advantage is long-term.

Tesla is under pressure to reduce the cost of the car, not just to expand the customer base, but also to be not so reliant on this ZEV credit. What happens when other car makers start to ramp up their EV program? Other car makers could lose $4700 per car, and still end up even because they would not have to buy the ZEV credit. And their car buyers still have the tax credit that Tesla cars have been losing.

Of course Tesla is fully aware of its business condition. Competition is great. It makes everybody work hard to survive.

 

[NW-Bound]

I just saw a Web article with the headline proclaiming the Renault Zoe being the #1 EV sales in Europe for the first half of 2020. What is this Zoe? I might have read about this car, but never paid much attention.

I recall something about the Tesla Model 3 being among the top in Europe earlier in the year by a large margin, and that was among all cars, not just the EV category.

The market condition is very fluid. What happens? Perhaps the Zoe is less expensive and more affordable. But how did the Model 3 beat many popular ICE cars earlier, and now trail this Zoe?

 

[RetiredAtThirty-eight]

I just saw a Web article with the headline proclaiming the Renault Zoe being the #1 EV sales in Europe for the first half of 2020. What is this Zoe? I might have read about this car, but never paid much attention.

I recall something about the Tesla Model 3 being among the top in Europe earlier in the year by a large margin, and that was among all cars, not just the EV category.

The market condition is very fluid. What happens? Perhaps the Zoe is less expensive and more affordable. But how did the Model 3 beat many popular ICE cars earlier, and now trail this Zoe?

Tesla's deliveries to Europe are lumpy because they are production constrained worldwide. Tesla sells every car they make almost as soon as they can deliver them to their destination. Because Tesla's primary factory in California was shutdown by the Coronavirus for almost half the quarter, the car shipments to Europe were disrupted. They still sold all the cars they made, just in other markets. By early to middle of next year, their Germany factory will be supplying all of Europe without the need to transport the cars on ships so there will be enough production to fully supply those markets.

Sales numbers in various markets are only meaningful for manufacturers like Ford, GMC, VW, Toyota, Mazda, etc. because these companies can all produce more cars than they have demand for. That's why they have huge parking lots around the world full of new cars without buyers. If you want to know how well Tesla is doing, look at production numbers because they will sell every one they manage to make.

I don't expect this worldwide shortage of Model 3's and Model Y's to necessarily be solved by the new factory in Texas because that factory will be dedicated to manufacturing huge numbers of Cybertrucks which will not relieve the strain on cars like the Model 3 and Model Y. It will appeal to a whole different class of buyer.

 

[Zathras]

I just saw a Web article with the headline proclaiming the Renault Zoe being the #1 EV sales in Europe for the first half of 2020. What is this Zoe? I might have read about this car, but never paid much attention.

I recall something about the Tesla Model 3 being among the top in Europe earlier in the year by a large margin, and that was among all cars, not just the EV category.

The market condition is very fluid. What happens? Perhaps the Zoe is less expensive and more affordable. But how did the Model 3 beat many popular ICE cars earlier, and now trail this Zoe?

Renault Zoe has been selling EVs in Europe for years. Nissan had the Leaf, the Renault half of the partnership went with the Zoe.

The Zoe starts at about thirty-seven thousand Euros. I believe that is about ten thousand Euros less than the starting point for the Model 3.

The Zoe sold about 37,000 units in the first half of the year. This was a 50% increase over 2019 first half. Overall, they had a 37% decrease in sales. Hopefully they will increase capacity so their EVs can continue to grow in market share.