I wonder why so many rely on the adage: the market bottoms when the hysteria gets manic. Who came up with that? Why do you believe it unequivicably? I know that people behave predictably and perhaps behavioral economics plays into this theory.
But there is the possibility, and not exactly remote either, that things are going to get worse next year and the market, reacting to further corporate losses, unemployment, foreclosures, state government insolvency, and more federal bailouts, may decide to anticipate even worse returns and fall further.
then there's the international component. I don't even want to speculate there.
Just throwing it out there. I think it's a problem (and a danger) to rely on old homilies to explain past markets during an unpredictable crisis like this one.