When I ER'ed 4 years ago I locked in a trend line to help guide me through our 48 year ER plan. Basically it shows us spending 50% of our starting portfolio (today's $). I want to spend every cent, but I was comfortable spending 50% by the time we hit age 95. I will use the trend line to help make changing to spending to keep us on track to plan. We will receive no pensions and our current ER plan assumes no SS benefits. Possible safety nets for keeping us on plan are:
1) Any SS benefits will be cream. Even a 25% haircut would be a nice safety net for any scenario.
2) Have 4 years of expenses in cash to ride out a bear market.
3) Reduce expenses. Currently spending ~10% less than plan. If we remove vacations and eating out that another 20% reduction.
4) Downsize house. We live in a 2600sqft house. I think we could live in something half that size and in turn save on other costs.
5) Not sure it is a safety net, but there probably no chance I'm living to 95. My Dad and his Dad died at age 70.. I know it will not cut DW expenses in half but should reduce medical costs in half. Maybe her backup plan will be to find a rich widow
....
Going back to work is not even a backup plan for us. I will exhaust all resources before I give up our freedom. We can live very simple if that's what it takes. Medical costs scares me more than any other possible scenario. It is out of our control. I can only sit on the sideline and hope they come up with a fair and cost effective solution... Not holding my breath of that happening anytime soon.