For the first time ever I sold all my stocks

[tdv2]

^^^^ Great observation if our time horizon was 3 months.

Time horizon......hmm....this thread largely ignores that. “I sold all my stocks” or “went 100% equities“ is not a time horizon decision when you make a move like that in one fell swoop. Instead, it appears it’s a reaction to current events....never a smart move IMO. I believe most here would be better served making significant AA changes over the course of several years.

 

[Spanky]

Time horizon......hmm....this thread largely ignores that. “I sold all my stocks” or “went 100% equities“ is not a time horizon decision when you make a move like that in one fell swoop. Instead, it appears it’s a reaction to current events....never a smart move IMO. I believe most here would be better served making significant AA changes over the course of several years.

+1 - good advice not to make significant changes to AA. However, I see that there are many posters claim that they sold before the selloffs and bought back in March and have made significant profits. Congrats to those market timers.

 

[OldShooter]

... I see that there are many posters claim that they sold before the selloffs and bought back in March and have made significant profits. Congrats to those market timers.

Yup. The people that tried timing and it didn't work out do not post.

The results obtained by the losers are "silent evidence." Taleb recounts this story from Cicero:

Diagoras, a nonbeliever in the gods, was shown painted tablets bearing the portraits of some worshippers who prayed, then survived a subsequent shipwreck. The implication was that praying protects you from drowning.

Diagoras asked, “Where are the pictures of those who prayed, then drowned?”
​

 

[NW-Bound]

Meanwhile, the market keeps going up. Actually, not every stock goes up. The ones that are up, keep going up. The ones that languish are still stepping in place.

But as the total market keeps rising, it looks like soon nobody has to work. All we do is to sell stock back and forth between ourselves, make good profits, and live happily forever. It does feel like 1999-2000. I remember that in that period up to March 2000, while tech stocks and particularly the "new-economy" stocks kept rising, the "brick-and-mortar" stocks did not do so well.

It will be interesting to see what happens next, while I am holding 50% stock AA (my usual stock AA is 70-80%). I may reduce it further to 30%. Never a dull moment.

 

[harllee]

Yup. The people that tried timing and it didn't work out do not post.

The results obtained by the losers are "silent evidence." Taleb recounts this story from Cicero:

Diagoras, a nonbeliever in the gods, was shown painted tablets bearing the portraits of some worshippers who prayed, then survived a subsequent shipwreck. The implication was that praying protects you from drowning.

Diagoras asked, “Where are the pictures of those who prayed, then drowned?”
​

I am the person that started this thread and I have continued to post on it. I am not a "loser." I have been investing in the market since my 20s and have made tons of money over the years. I am age 69, I had about 30% of my assets in stocks back in May and I sold that portion of my assets because I did not feel comfortable having my assets in the stock market now. I have more than enough money to live on without investing in the stock market. I am doing fine, sleeping well at night and I personally feel the stock market is not a safe place for my assets now. Will I ever get back in the market? I don't know. I think our economy is in a terrible place now and sooner or later this will be reflected in the stock market.

 

[MichaelB]

I am the person that started this thread and I have continued to post on it. I am not a "loser." I have been investing in the market since my 20s and have made tons of money over the years. I am age 69, I had about 30% of my assets in stocks back in May and I sold that portion of my assets because I did not feel comfortable having my assets in the stock market now. I have more than enough money to live on without investing in the stock market. I am doing fine, sleeping well at night and I personally feel the stock market is not a safe place for my assets now. Will I ever get back in the market? I don't know. I think our economy is in a terrible place now and sooner or later this will be reflected in the stock market.

Don’t take it personally, you are definitely not a loser. Like a carpenter with a hammer always looking for a nail to smash, some people have one message and constantly look for opportunities to relay and repeat it.

 

[pb4uski]

+1 I sold out too and have no real regrets. While we haven't started SS yet we will soon and between our SS and my pension it will cover 85% of our spending so the portfolio doesn't need to contribute a lot... plus our spending is pliable... with a little belt tightening we could live pretty well on my pension and our SS.

It seems to me that the stock market is heading towards being a greater fool game... valuations are very expensive and quite frankly at these levels its not a game that I'm interested in playing right now.... but I probably will get back in if valuations become more sensible.

 

[bigcmagor]

Yup. The people that tried timing and it didn't work out do not post.

The results obtained by the losers are "silent evidence."

More like those who tried timing and it didn't work out YET, do not post - which would still be untrue since many here have strayed from their asset allocations and admitted it. There's no sense in regular posting on the subject and thereby encouraging the grief that follows, like being called a loser. I believe that both positions on the issue will have their day to gloat. Glad you are enjoying yours.

 

[NW-Bound]

Entr'acte time for some music.

The Times They Are A'changin by Bob Dylan

... don't speak too soon
For the wheel's still in spin
And there's no tellin' who
That it's namin'
For the loser now
Will be later to win
For the times they are a-changin'

 

[OldShooter]

I am the person that started this thread and I have continued to post on it. I am not a "loser." I have been investing in the market since my 20s and have made tons of money over the years. I am age 69, I had about 30% of my assets in stocks back in May and I sold that portion of my assets because I did not feel comfortable having my assets in the stock market now. I have more than enough money to live on without investing in the stock market. I am doing fine, sleeping well at night and I personally feel the stock market is not a safe place for my assets now. Will I ever get back in the market? I don't know. I think our economy is in a terrible place now and sooner or later this will be reflected in the stock market.

Sorry to make you upset. You missed my point completely. @Spanky commented on people who posted about making money with their market timing. Taleb's point is that these posts are not the whole story. It is incomplete without the silent evidence from those whose market timing efforts did not work out.

As you imply, trading out for peace of mind with small concern for optimum market timing is really a different matter.

 

[Dash man]

Well today I decided to cut back and sold about $1M in equities, including my AMZN which was up $130/share just today. I did it mostly in my IRAs so there are no tax consequences. All of my taxable stocks have significant capital gains, so I need to think more about those.
We’ve done remarkably well , but I can’t see this thing continuing much longer. Now I’ve got ammunition if the stocks fall.

 

[harllee]

Well today I decided to cut back and sold about $1M in equities, including my AMZN which was up $130/share just today. I did it mostly in my IRAs so there are no tax consequences. All of my taxable stocks have significant capital gains, so I need to think more about those.
We’ve done remarkably well , but I can’t see this thing continuing much longer. Now I’ve got ammunition if the stocks fall.

Dash man, that is very similar to what I did. Sounds like a good plan to me. Those of us who sell with large gains are locking in our gains.

 

[stepford]

Well today I decided to cut back and sold about $1M in equities, including my AMZN which was up $130/share just today. I did it mostly in my IRAs so there are no tax consequences. All of my taxable stocks have significant capital gains, so I need to think more about those.
We’ve done remarkably well , but I can’t see this thing continuing much longer. Now I’ve got ammunition if the stocks fall.

Not to be too nosy, but that $1M sale means very different things if it is 5% vs 95% of your assets.

 

[Dash man]

Not to be too nosy, but that $1M sale means very different things if it is 5% vs 95% of your assets.

Yes, you’re right. It does mean different things!

 

[dm]

I’ve recently gone from 60/40 to 45/55. I’ll probably go to 40/60 soon. I’m 63 and been ER for 13 years. My net worth is higher than its ever been, I can take a little off the table.

 

[foxfirev5]

I’ve recently gone from 60/40 to 45/55. I’ll probably go to 40/60 soon. I’m 63 and been ER for 13 years. My net worth is higher than its ever been, I can take a little off the table.

64 YO here. We've been 40/60 for a few years. With enough cash/CD's to live on we'll take what the market gives us with little or no rebalancing. If it is a rising equity glidepath all the better for our heirs. If not we'll still be OK or make it work.

 

[sverbroekken]

I'm another good test case here. I manage my wife's and my account.

With my wife's account, we sold nothing but went a little more aggressive into technology near the lows. She has fully recovered from March lows and is up 3% vs. S+P this year.

With my account I took money off the table with the "hope" to buy back lower. I started buying back too late and chased. I'm down 6% vs. the S+P.

Combined we're down 3% right now vs. S+P. Not gonna lie, it does suck to be down now that the S+P has recovered and the Nasdaq is up like crazy. And frankly, I'm not sure I ever slept better at night because FOMO is nearly as bad for me as seeing the account values drop. And don't get me started on Zoom, Tesla etc.

I'm pretty heavy in equities right now for us (combined probably 80%) so considering - again - to take some off the table. Like so many, I don't believe in this rally. Neither the fed nor congress cares about the debt anymore, nor printing money which seems to be the answer to all our woes. I don't know the endgame, but it can't be good and we're not far away from it. There are signs all around ... bond market, interest rates, gold values, even bitcoin and the dollar decline vs. Euro. But I've been saying that to myself for 4 months and the market has just gone up, up, up!

 

[Beachcomber]

65 here. Re-balanced earlier this year to lock in gains. Usually have 45 - 55% in equities, Currently at 25%, waiting for after the election or a pullback to get back in. My broker says the market will head to the 40's eventually.

Considered pulling out earlier this year and am glad I didn't. First quarter wiped out all 2019 gains; now I am almost back to where I was in 2019.

For perspective, we can live comfortably off of our balanced portfolio if the equities market tanks.

Also mortgage free as of May 28th 2020. Super Duper!

 

[tulak]

Another +1 to OP. I also reduced my equity exposure and have no regrets. Maybe I’m a loser, but last time I checked, my portfolio is at or close to my highs. The only real problem I have is trying to get a decent return on my cash. I’m more than happy to ride this out. Irrational exuberance is not my cup of tea.

 

[Dawg52]

Another +1 to OP. I also reduced my equity exposure and have no regrets. Maybe I’m a loser, but last time I checked, my portfolio is at or close to my highs. The only real problem I have is trying to get a decent return on my cash. I’m more than happy to ride this out. Irrational exuberance is not my cup of tea.

Ditto to all.

 

[harllee]

65 here. Re-balanced earlier this year to lock in gains. Usually have 45 - 55% in equities, Currently at 25%, waiting for after the election or a pullback to get back in. My broker says the market will head to the 40's eventually.

Considered pulling out earlier this year and am glad I didn't. First quarter wiped out all 2019 gains; now I am almost back to where I was in 2019.

For perspective, we can live comfortably off of our balanced portfolio if the equities market tanks.

Also mortgage free as of May 28th 2020. Super Duper!

Congrats on paying off the mortgage. I remember when I got the mortgages on my houses paid off (at that time owned 3 houses!)--it was like the weight of the world off my shoulders!

 

[corn18]

We've been 60/40 for years but when we sold our paid off house in Mar, we decided to put it in cash while we built our new house. We decided to take a mortgage on our new house @ 2.75%. 30 year fixed. With the house money, that puts us at 38/62 and that's where we will stay until next year. I might retire next Apr and the bond tent makes sense right now. Although I own no bonds right now. All fixed income is at Ally and in my 401k stable value fund. I'm 54.

I consider none of this market timing. It is planned. AA is to manage risk and risk tolerance changes for many reasons.

 

[sengsational]

Yesterday the bear market ended

The bear market that started February 19th ended yesterday. Whoda Thunk!

This 2020 COVID Bear Market was 33 days from peak to relative bottom and 148 days from relative bottom to new high. For many investors it tested their nerve and their risk tolerance. Congratulations to those of you who stayed the course!

The above quote is from a blog post by a fee-only financial planner. I thought it was an interesting "quick read" that explores the idea in this thread a little bit.
https://www.marottaonmoney.com/the-sp-500-recovered-today-from-the-2020-covid-bear-market/

 

[NW-Bound]

The bear market that started February 19th ended yesterday. Whoda Thunk!

Good! People are still dropping dead, and the living still unemployed. And the GDP just dropped by 1/3.

Time for a new bear market to start.

 

[Chuckanut]

Has anyone sold much or all of their stock investments even if they were in taxable accounts?