I vote to call it a Bear Market!

[steelyman]

Remember: you don’t lose (or gain) a penny until you sell.

 

[GravitySucks]

Maybe we'll get lucky and get these bears.

 

[cbo111]

Maybe we should just acknowledge this was, in large part, caused by the "elephant" in the room?

 

[Onward]

NOW it's a bear.

 

[MRG]

Its color is brown!

Should have deployed my pepper spray, but it's too late. Have to play dead now, and hope for the best.

Not all brown bears are mean. She's a little cutie.

 

[Lsbcal]

I don’t believe that the retail investor is controlling the market.

+1

 

[easysurfer]

NOW it's a bear.

Look on the bright side, since World War II bear markets on average lasted only about 13 months :

Since World War II, bear markets on average have fallen 30.4 percent and have lasted 13 months, according to analysis by Goldman Sachs and CNBC. When that milestone has been hit, it took stocks an average of 21.9 months to recover.

Even when stocks enter “correction” territory, which is defined by at least a 10 percent drop from a recent high, there’s a long road to recovery. History shows corrections last four months, and equities slide 13 percent before finding a bottom.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/24/whats-a-bear-market-and-how-long-do-they-usually-last-.html

 

[CardsFan]

Not time to buy yet. DW shops at Kohl's. Need to have a 30% off coupon before you can buy anything.

20% doesn't cut it.

 

[Ed B]

Honestly, I am kind of relieved to see it finally arrive so we can begin the countdown to the recovery. And I fully understand we may be quite a ways from the bottom.

I retired June 1 and still have 2 1/2 years expenses split between a Stable value fund for 2019 and early 2020, and the rest in Lockheed Martin bonds yielding ~3.4% (coupon 4.5%) that matures Nov 15, 2019. So barring unforeseen emergencies I won't need to sell an equity until 1st or 2nd qtr 2021.

 

[VFK57]

Remember: you don’t lose (or gain) a penny until you sell.

That is what keeps me from selling. YTD drop of almost 13%

 

[Scrapr]

Shortest Bear market evah. Dow up 1k! Nasdaq up 3 and a half bills

Whew

I only check my portfolio on up days. Guess who is pulling out the calculator tonight?

 

[Dtail]

Shortest Bear market evah. Dow up 1k! Nasdaq up 3 and a half bills

Whew

I only check my portfolio on up days. Guess who is pulling out the calculator tonight?

Okay so since the SP 500 and Nasdaq hit 20%, but not the Dow, is it official that the Bull Market ended?
Not to ruin the party, but some of the largest % gains was in 2008.

 

[NW-Bound]

Shortest Bear market evah. Dow up 1k! Nasdaq up 3 and a half bills

Whew

I only check my portfolio on up days. Guess who is pulling out the calculator tonight?

The market has to reclaim its previous high for the bear market to end. Long way to go.

 

[Andre1969]

Just out of curiosity, how long does the market have to stay down, for it to count as a bear? FWIW, I just ran my own numbers, and as of Christmas Eve, I was down about 17.4% from the end of September, which was where I had peaked.

And, when I look at my numbers for the year, things don't look so scary. For 2018 as a whole, I'm down about 11.5%. This has also been a good lesson in the old adage of focusing on the percentages, rather than actual dollar amounts. That 11.5% translates into a larger $ amount than what I lost back in 2008! But, percentage-wise, I lost about 42%, back then...

 

[audreyh1]

I don’t believe there is any duration requirement.

 

[NYEXPAT]

Okay so since the SP 500 and Nasdaq hit 20%, but not the Dow, is it official that the Bull Market ended?
Not to ruin the party, but some of the largest % gains was in 2008.

That would depend on if this is a cyclical or secular "Bear market"?

 

[Huston55]

Look on the bright side, since World War II bear markets on average lasted only about 13 months :

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/24/whats-a-bear-market-and-how-long-do-they-usually-last-.html

I don’t believe there is any duration requirement.

Does 13 hours count?

 

[jollystomper]

Shortest Bear market evah. Dow up 1k! Nasdaq up 3 and a half bills

Of course, if the Dow can gain 1K in day, it can also lose 1K in a day...

 

[UnrealizedPotential]

Shortest Bear market evah. Dow up 1k! Nasdaq up 3 and a half bills

Whew

I only check my portfolio on up days. Guess who is pulling out the calculator tonight?

I don't think this is the shortest bear for a couple of reasons. The 1987 crash gets my vote for the shortest bear. It went down 22% in one day, and the next day it was up 11%. Second reason IMO, is that we don't know if we are out of the woods yet. Yes, it was a great day, but we could retest the lows, and possibly go lower or not, who knows?

 

[Andre1969]

Of course, if the Dow can gain 1K in day, it can also lose 1K in a day...

Hell, considering it tends to drop faster than it rises, it can lose a helluva lot more than that in one day!

 

[easysurfer]

I would call down 650 pts one day then up over 1000 the next a sideways walk .

The tug of war is just beginning.

 

[joeea]

Is it officially an un-Bear market now?

 

[easysurfer]

Is it officially an un-Bear market now?

Large ups and downs, more like unbearable .

 

[BeachOrCity]

Bear markets are usually called with a more sustained 20% loss. While this market still warrants concern I think the media is hyping a story. it wasn’t a bear on Christmas Eve because the loss was not sustained (they usually like to see it for a period of months).

Fundamentals are good. Only thing I have seen that raises concern is the quantitative tightening going on. That will be really hard to fully unwind. don’t know if they will send us to recession by trying to do it.

One thing that is NOT a big problem is the current 2.5% fed short term rate. No way a rate like that tanks an otherwise healthy economy.

So if you are trying to read the tea leaves I suggest looking at what the fed is saying and kore importantly DOING regarding getting all the non govt bonds off its balance sheet

 

[NW-Bound]

The market may just turn around and drops 1500 points tomorrow to satisfy your demand for a longer period of misery for a bear market. Just be patient.