Is the Automobile Bubble Bursting?

[retired1]

I've 2010, 2012, and 2015. All run well. Tempting to replace 2010 & 2012 but holding off due to high prices for "barely used" vehicles (2-3 yr old). Waiting for car inventory to warm up to get some good deal. No hurry !

 

[jazz4cash]

Maybe one sign is Carvana.

The 53-week high is just under $246.

It's currently $5 or almost a 98% drop this year.

maybe when used car prices were crazy, they were doing well.

But apparently their business model was to transport cars from anywhere in the country for a flat fee.

Dumb, people were paying the same fee to have a car transported across the continent for the same fee as transporting it from a city 20 miles away?

I think Carvana is an outlier. Too much bad and possibly criminal behavior to use them as an example for the industry.

 

[Dhickman57]

Maybe one sign is Carvana.

The 53-week high is just under $246.

It's currently $5 or almost a 98% drop this year.

maybe when used car prices were crazy, they were doing well.

But apparently their business model was to transport cars from anywhere in the country for a flat fee.

Dumb, people were paying the same fee to have a car transported across the continent for the same fee as transporting it from a city 20 miles away?

.

 

[jazz4cash]

The manufacturers have not dropped MSRP, and they won't. Chevy has $1500 incentive on the Silverado. Still too expensive. They're gonna have to do better.

Ford has raised the MSRP of the Lightning F-150 by 40% in one year. And we're all supposed to go EV with that kind of gouging?

Dropping MSRP? How would that work? Retroactively remove and replace window stickers and all the documentation for every vehicle in the pipeline? Not likely. It’s very easy to use rebates and promos…. especially the ones that expire at the end of the month and then get extended on the 1st. Remember the S in MSRP is suggested. Many people are conditioned to dicker although many do think the sticker price is non negotiable including the dealer add-on “market value adjustment”. And the “invoice” is just a number on a piece of paper, not necessarily dealer cost.

 

[Another Reader]

2013 Corolla
2015 Lexus RX
2017 Accord

Other than the electrical drain and some minor paint blemishes on the Lexus (Lexus quality is BS in my opinion), all are in perfect running condition. Can't go to the Toyota or Honda dealer for service without being badgered to sell. I'm not paying $30k for an Accord or a Camry. I wanted a Tacoma, but not at today's prices.

I see 10 year old Corollas all the time. Older Hondas as well. I may never buy a new car...

 

[JoeWras]

Dropping MSRP? How would that work?

Well, it wouldn't as I mentioned.

The Chevy incentives are the first crack in the "priced over MSRP" game. But Chevy is GM, and has a bad reputation.

Toyota is a different story right now.

But at least it starts somewhere with the bad brands. Let's see where this goes.

Toyota also arguably managed the supply chain issues more poorly than others, which is surprising to me. I won't link any articles, you are free to search for yourself, but in the last few days the Toyota CEO was publicly complaining about some stuff that would derail this thread. Clearly, he is angry that resources are going towards some other things and to me it sounded like sour grapes at his own and his C-suite's failure to manage the production of the current line up.

 

[latexman]

Our local Toyota’s ongoing TV ad says, “we’ll NEVER ask more than MRSP.

 

[MichealKnight]

Bad Brands

Well, it wouldn't as I mentioned.

The Chevy incentives are the first crack in the "priced over MSRP" game. But Chevy is GM, and has a bad reputation.

Toyota is a different story right now.

But at least it starts somewhere with the bad brands. Let's see where this goes.

Toyota also arguably managed the supply chain issues more poorly than others, which is surprising to me. I won't link any articles, you are free to search for yourself, but in the last few days the Toyota CEO was publicly complaining about some stuff that would derail this thread. Clearly, he is angry that resources are going towards some other things and to me it sounded like sour grapes at his own and his C-suite's failure to manage the production of the current line up.

Agreed. "Pay Full Price" Tesla..... starting $3,750 incentives. Pretty soon their little-advertising expense, will have to increase. Their wonderful margins - will have to shrink.

On another note - retail has long offered "sales". And to an extent, be it $3,750 at bad-brand Tesla, or incentives at bad-brand Chevy....are factored into the price and also profit picture for the OEM. It's when they overproduce and overspend is were they run into problems.

 

[JoeWras]

Our local Toyota’s ongoing TV ad says, “we’ll NEVER ask more than MRSP.

Leith is not a bad place. They've been around a long time.

They will ask for $698 documentation fee, though.

 

[Venturer]

Our local Toyota’s ongoing TV ad says, “we’ll NEVER ask more than MRSP.

Our local Toyota dealer has two fellers on tv/radio that are usually standing beside a car or truck and they say the same. Then one looks up and says "Other folks say you can't do that" Then and the other clown looks up and replys,"ohh yes we can!" Funny thing is when we bought my Tacoma in 2010 and again when we bought my DW Hilander in 2019 we checked there and ended up in Chattanooga buying for much less!

 

[11522914]

The manufacturers have not dropped MSRP, and they won't. Chevy has $1500 incentive on the Silverado. Still too expensive. They're gonna have to do better.

Ford has raised the MSRP of the Lightning F-150 by 40% in one year. And we're all supposed to go EV with that kind of gouging?

This explains everything you need to know about the Lightning F-150.

https://wolfstreet.com/2022/12/16/f...-products-already-in-hot-demand-short-supply/

Since the $7,500 EV incentives in the Inflation Reduction Act last August, Ford hiked the Lightning price by $16,000.

 

[JoeWras]

I guess eventually all our purchases will be subsidized.

 

[mf15]

What I want and difficult to find mid size/small SUV. Might go down to one car so memory seats needed,but really don't want 19/20 inch wheels. To get memory seats have to go with upper trims,then you get larger low profile tires. Then wife likes high ride height. I want a HUD,but no giant sun roof,no black interior too many at dealers,no CVT,no 3 cylinder turbo. Want turn signal cameras,only in KIA/HYundai,won't buy. Must have good projector headlights. Driving me nuts.
Oldmike

 

[JoeWras]

What I want and difficult to find mid size/small SUV. Might go down to one car so memory seats needed,but really don't want 19/20 inch wheels. To get memory seats have to go with upper trims,then you get larger low profile tires. Then wife likes high ride height. I want a HUD,but no giant sun roof,no black interior too many at dealers,no CVT,no 3 cylinder turbo. Want turn signal cameras,only in KIA/HYundai,won't buy. Must have good projector headlights. Driving me nuts.
Oldmike

The obsession with large wheels is maddening. It is mostly style, not function. And the tires are so expensive.

As for all the people who like the "high ride," I really wish they'd look at some dash cam videos of accidents. It is amazing to see how easy SUVs roll over in seemingly innocent accidents. The one that gets me is the sideswipe. Those big wheels we're talking about have a habit of catching something on the car they touch (like a bumper or fender flair), grab it, ride up and roll over without violent contact. It is just another reason I am not a fan of the big wheels.

Wear your seatbelt. Rollovers happen fast and unexpectedly.

 

[Christine]

Agreed. "Pay Full Price" Tesla..... starting $3,750 incentives. Pretty soon their little-advertising expense, will have to increase. Their wonderful margins - will have to shrink.

It's common for Tesla to offer bargains end of quarter to avoid customers delaying picking up their cars into the next quarter.


More so this year since next year many Tesla models (and other brands) will get an up to $7500 tax cut so some customers may want to wait picking up their cars.




But more interesting to me is the car prices coming down. Some owners financing their cars on the top may now have cars worth substantially less than they financed it for.

 

[JoeWras]

I was at a party last weekend and a Tesla owner was saying this is also complicated by incentives that are based on American or overseas batteries. Probably a better topic for the EV thread.

 

[aja8888]

I was at a party last weekend and a Tesla owner was saying this is also complicated by incentives that are based on American or overseas batteries. Probably a better topic for the EV thread.

This whole EV credit business has been pushed into March 2023 by the gov.

 

[CaptTom]

Maybe it's finally starting:
Used car prices post biggest drop ever as new luxury car sales boom

The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI) for the month of December posted a 0.8% increase in wholesale auto prices month over month, however it dropped a whopping 14.9% year over year, the largest annualized price decline ever in the 26-year history of the index.

My unofficial indicator (number of cars on used car lots and the local auto auction) seems to be trending up, too.

 

[ExFlyBoy5]

The obsession with large wheels is maddening. It is mostly style, not function. And the tires are so expensive.

And are HUGE money makers for the manufacturers. I am seeing more and more of the solid black wheels that are factory but made to look like aftermarket wheels. Around these parts, I would think it was against the law to roll around in your pickup truck with FACTORY wheels. It is one of the best ways to absolutely waste money IMHO. Our neighbor texted DW a couple months ago and asked if she could measure the height of her garage...she wanted to buy a brand new Tahoe that came "lifted" from the factory and wasn't sure if it would fit.

Speaking of which...I saw [URL="https://www.investopedia.com/15-percent-of-new-car-buyers-are-paying-more-than-usd-1000-a-month-7092987# ]an article last week[/URL] that over 15% of car buyers have a note that is OVER $1000 a month. That is insane.

 

[JoeWras]

Speaking of which...I saw an article last week that over 15% of car buyers have a note that is OVER $1000 a month. That is insane.

Link doesn't work but your summary both surprises and doesn't surprise me, if you know what I mean.

Surprised: my brain can't even imagine myself doing that
Not surprised: people are nuts

 

[teejayevans]

This explains everything you need to know about the Lightning F-150.

https://wolfstreet.com/2022/12/16/f...-products-already-in-hot-demand-short-supply/

Since the $7,500 EV incentives in the Inflation Reduction Act last August, Ford hiked the Lightning price by $16,000.

We rented the Lightning…
The weird thing is if you lift the accelerator pedal it brakes? The advertised mileage you get is exaggerated, probably because the AC/heat is not considered.
I need to make cross country trips, EVs are not in my future.

 

[braumeister]

We rented the Lightning…
The weird thing is if you lift the accelerator pedal it brakes?

That's called "one pedal driving" and is quite common. Takes very little getting used to and most folks seem to like it.
Not so much braking as regenerating.

 

[REWahoo]

That's called "one pedal driving" and is quite common. Takes very little getting used to and most folks seem to like it.

Yes, regenerative braking is easy to adapt to and something I really enjoy. The ability to slow and even come to a complete stop without using the brake pedal is very handy. I miss it when I drive our hybrid.

 

[EastWest Gal]

I ordered a Prius in April 2022. Still waiting…waiting…waiting.

The good news is we’ll get the redesigned 2023 Prius for the same price.

 

[wrigley]

What I want and difficult to find mid size/small SUV. Might go down to one car so memory seats needed,but really don't want 19/20 inch wheels. To get memory seats have to go with upper trims,then you get larger low profile tires. Then wife likes high ride height. I want a HUD,but no giant sun roof,no black interior too many at dealers,no CVT,no 3 cylinder turbo. Want turn signal cameras,only in KIA/HYundai,won't buy. Must have good projector headlights. Driving me nuts.
Oldmike

Did I read the post correctly? You WILL NOT buy a Kia or a Hyundai?

Mike