ISM/OSM yet again

There were some nice "arbitrage" opportunities today. I was able to convert 25% of my OSM position to ISM and take out an average of 1.17 per share, which I calculate results in a nominal YTM pickup of about 100 bp, at 3% inflation. I calculate the fair value of the swap to be about 0.50.
 
:D Whooo hoo! Just noticed that ISM pooped out an interest payment on the 15th that was credited to my account. Just when I figured they were going belly-up for sure!

Now....let's see....how many more months to go before redemption at maturity at PAR? ;)

As a side note.... to entertain myself and to occupy time so I don't mess around with my main account, I've been day-trading SLM (which has been super volatile lately) and have done well with it. I'm sure if I keep that up long enough, I'll wind up giving it all back! :eek:
 
Today's CPI report showed the biggest year-over-year decline since October 2007. Year-over-year CPI-U was up "just" 3.7%. This will result in a substantial drop in February's interest payments for ISM and OSM. For the next three months, the annualized current yield (on the par value of 25) for OSM will be

Dec 7.37%
Jan 6.98%
Feb 5.66%

ISM's yield will be 5 basis points higher. At yesterday's closing price of 9, these yields are multiplied by 2.8. Pretty nice so long as the interest keeps getting paid.
 
Today's CPI report showed the biggest year-over-year decline since October 2007. Year-over-year CPI-U was up "just" 3.7%. This will result in a substantial drop in February's interest payments for ISM and OSM. For the next three months, the annualized current yield (on the par value of 25) for OSM will be

Dec 7.37%
Jan 6.98%
Feb 5.66%

ISM's yield will be 5 basis points higher. At yesterday's closing price of 9, these yields are multiplied by 2.8. Pretty nice so long as the interest keeps getting paid.

Isn't that usually the fly in the ointment? Pesky little issues. :)

Ha
 
Weren't "the smart people" saying awhile back that the foresaw us (holders of
these) getting at least 50% of par back in the event of bankruptcy of SLM ?
Do they still think that ?
 
Weren't "the smart people" saying awhile back that the foresaw us (holders of
these) getting at least 50% of par back in the event of bankruptcy of SLM ?
Do they still think that ?

Well, we are mostly dumber than dirt. Still want our opinions?

Ha
 
I still think we will get back 50% or more. SLM isn't technically insolvent like the Big 3.
Last quarter it lost .40 a share, but excluding mark to markets loss made .30.

In this environment I wouldn't be shocked to see a bailed out or bankruptcy, but we are still getting double digit interest payments.
 
Today's CPI report showed the biggest year-over-year decline since October 2007. Year-over-year CPI-U was up "just" 3.7%. This will result in a substantial drop in February's interest payments for ISM and OSM. For the next three months, the annualized current yield (on the par value of 25) for OSM will be

Dec 7.37%
Jan 6.98%
Feb 5.66%

ISM's yield will be 5 basis points higher. At yesterday's closing price of 9, these yields are multiplied by 2.8. Pretty nice so long as the interest keeps getting paid.

Thanks FIRE'd. I do these calculations too and got the same numbers. Usually post them here but got too lazy......

Yep, at these prices, the interest rate is mighty attractive, if SLM keeps paying as you say. Every month when the bux arrive in my account, I let out a little whoop and run for the liquor cabinet! ;)

If equities weren't so tanked, I'd buy some more at under $9. But, my portfolio is so awash in red on the equity side, the last thing I need would be more risky, low rated bonds.......

So, for now, ISM just gives me something to look for on the 15th of every month!

clifp, I reviewed your calcualtions regarding SLM's ability to cover debt and sure hope you're right. Everything looked good to me, but I also thought the equity markets would be OK...... maybe just a little tick down..... So my opinion is somewhat less than worthless, like my portfolio these days.....
 
So a buyer today would get ~ 18% dividends? Very interesting.

Just remember that The Vanguard and Fidelity Junk Bond funds (ahem... "High Yield") are paying >10% right now. 10% is not 18%, but that's a lot of diversification, plus some potential NAV upside as they are both down ~ 30% over the past year.

yeah, "upside", that's funny isn't it, but not "funny like a clown funny" :(

SPHIX - Fidelity; VWEHX - Vanguard

-ERD50
 
Amazing how the yield to maturity is up around 26-27% (per year) for these issues (assuming 3% inflation). If I felt like I could get even close to $7.x a share in a BK, I'd be all over more of this. A $7 payout would only be 28% of par value. Hmmm...
 
Just remember that The Vanguard and Fidelity Junk Bond funds (ahem... "High Yield") are paying >10% right now. 10% is not 18%, but that's a lot of diversification, plus some potential NAV upside as they are both down ~ 30% over the past year.

Let's say you are contemplating a "junk bond" investment. You could use VWEHX as the core and ISM/OSM (or even PFK which has gotten killed with the insurance stocks) as a satellite, that is to say, create the "ERD50 High Yield Portfolio" with 90%-95% in VWEHX (or VWEAX) and 5%-10% in ISM/OSM/PFK as a yield-enhancer/inflation-hedge.
 
With the minor deflation we've had the past few months, ISM/OSM rates are drifting downward. The 2/15/09 through 3/14/09 period will pay 3.12% at PAR (ISM).
 
I found this article about what to do if your bond turns to junk on the Schwab site.

What to Do if Your Bonds Turn to "Junk"

This chart is interesting:

Average corporate debt recovery, 1987–2007
Recovery rate (% of par)
Bank loans 82%
Senior secured bonds 66%
Senior unsecured bonds 39%
Senior subordinated 29%
Subordinated 27%
Junior subordinated 16%



I believe ISM would be in the senior unsecured category which Schwab says pays 39% of PAR on average at settlement after default. At ISM's current selling price of about $9, folks are willing to pay about 36% of PAR.
 
Good article. Thanks for posting, Youbet.

Ha
 
SLM, ISM and OSM all up significantly the past couple of days. I haven't seen any news to justify this. Anyone notice anything?
 
SLM, ISM and OSM all up significantly the past couple of days. I haven't seen any news to justify this. Anyone notice anything?

Maybe a lot of investors read your above post about recovery in the case of default. ;)
 
SLM, ISM and OSM all up significantly the past couple of days. I haven't seen any news to justify this. Anyone notice anything?
It's just a macro trend. All exchange traded debt issues have had significant price increases over the last week or two. All of the BBB-rated ETD I was buying from Oct-Dec that had current yields of 15-25% are now trading at 9-11% current yields. I looked at JSM but passed in light of SLM's leverage compared to the others (150B debt w/ 5B shareholder equity).
 
SLM/ISM/OSM Trouble?

I've been pleased with my ISM monthly interest payments. But the dark clouds we've all discussed may be building on the horizon......

"SLM Corp (SLM) (9.00 -2.24)
NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Shares of student lender SLM Corp. (SLM) fell sharply Wednesday as worries ramped up about the company's expected charge-offs for 2009 as well as how it could be affected by any subsidy cuts from President Obama's upcoming budget. The stock closed down 20% to $9 after earlier hitting an intraday low of $8.88. At a conference hosted by Credit Suisse on Wednesday, the company said it expects its private-education loan charge-offs for 2009 will reach $1.3 billion, with $225 million of that related to changes in forbearance policy. "In my view, the net charge-offs in their private loan portfolio may be higher than I originally forecasted," William Blair analyst David Long told Dow Jones Newswires. "And if I raised my net charge-off figure, my EPS estimates would come down." However, Friedman Billings Ramsey analyst Matthew Snowling felt shares were under more pressure from fears that the budget may include subsidy cuts than from the charge-off guidance (Dow Jones Newswires 04:18 PM "

Is the end in sight?
 
I've been pleased with my ISM monthly interest payments. But the dark clouds we've all discussed may be building on the horizon......



Is the end in sight?

I wanted to listen to their Credit Suisse Conference Presentation today but I had to go out. I went back tonight and it didn't seem to be archived, but the pdf slides and such are there on the salliemae.com website.

It seems that Washington is kissing every bottom in every corner of the US- surely they wouldn't throw a big wrench into the plans of a lot of the very type of people who vote- parents of college students.

Let's hope not anyway. I have accustomed myself to selloffs in my portfolio, but I really would not be pleased by a wipeout of these securities.

Ha
 
Anyone else notice that salliemae and salmonella share an awful lot of the same letters?
 
Anyone else notice that salliemae and salmonella share an awful lot of the same letters?

And the symptoms of having both of those are also similar. Except the suffering from salliemae can last much longer. At least those interest payments keep trickling in!
 
I wanted to listen to their Credit Suisse Conference Presentation today but I had to go out. I went back tonight and it didn't seem to be archived, but the pdf slides and such are there on the salliemae.com website.

The Credit Suisse Conference Presentation is now available on the SallieMae site and I listened to it this afternoon. Jack Remondi, Vice Chairman and CFO, did the talking.......

I also found the .pdf of the presentation slides and was able to follow along fairly well. (Almost reminded me of being on a net-meeting back in my w*rking days! :()

The subject of potential subsidy cuts from the Obama administration was not addressed.

2009 writeoffs were addressed including changes to the forbearance policy which is causing charges which otherwise would occur in later years to be pulled into 2009.

They are expecting positive earnings of $1.45 to $1.65 for the year.

On 1/22/09 S&P affirmed SLM senior unsecured dept (like ISM and OSM) to be BBB-.

Remondi sounded relatively upbeat which, of course, would be his job at this kind of presentation. He pointed out that the quality of their loan portfolio is increasing. He mentioned that although students defaulting on loans gets lots of press, the vast majority of their loans, 94% IIRC, are current. He also pointed out that although the ROI of a college education is being questioned, overall unemployment has now surpassed 7% but holders of four year college degrees (or better) are experiencing unemployment of less than 4%.

As to whether Obama's budget would include subsidy cuts to SallieMae, I dunno...... I guess you have to ask yourself whether Obama's outlook would be to change a policy with the likely result being a financial kick in the groin to equity holders and lenders to SallieMae, a provider of student loans.

I have no clue.
 
On 1/22/09 S&P affirmed SLM senior unsecured dept (like ISM and OSM) to be BBB-.

I think we all know what S&P ratings are worth, but WOW! Investment grade debt (BBB- marks the bottom of that category) selling at a 56% discount to par. What interesting times we live in.
 
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