Art, while you say you are looking for first hand experiences, you won't really get that much of a sampling here to be of real use, IMO. There's just way more to admissions than test scores and grades. There's extracurriculars, course work, community service, essays, interviews, teacher recs, etc. Just because someone's kid got 730s on each SAT part and didn't get into to Stanford doesn't mean that a 740 or higher is required.
There are even things like where you are from. A kid who has near perfect credentials all around still may not get in because the school has already taken as many kids from that area as they'd like to, and want to be more regionally diverse.
Here's an example of how tough it might be to know why you did or didn't get in. I talked with a parent who's kid got into a better school than they expected, based on her score and grades. I guess it was a small enough school that he was actually able to ask why, and the director told him it was because she was the year book editor, and they thought that took enough organizational ability that it was an almost automatic admit. At other schools, it might mean very little.
Look at it from the point of the admissions director. At a Stanford they get something like 25,000 apps and have to choose about 10% of them in 3 months. Do you really expect perfection and total clarity in the process? (That question wasn't directed specifically to you.)
I found
College Reviews: StudentsReview : Over 56800 College Reviews! (3,156 schools reviewed) to be a pretty useful site for learning about schools, and hearing stories about what it takes to get in.
In my opinion, rather than trying to figure out which schools would accept your kid, it's more important to figure out where your kid will do best. Location (both geographic region and whether it is urban or not), campus size, excellence in his desired major, things like that are what are important. Visit as many schools that seem to fit that criteria as you can, and start early. After looking at one or two schools he might totally change his thoughts about whether a size he thought was right really is too small or big once he really looks at a campus.
Then narrow it down and have him apply to 1-2 schools that he virtually guaranteed acceptance, 1-2 better schools he should probably make, and 1-2 "reach" schools. My daughter applied 1-2-2 in those categories. Actually we thought it was 2-1-2 but she just dropped out of the top 10% of her class and missed her automatic acceptance into U of Texas (and in another thread I mentioned she gave up on the process there). So far she's been accepted to the "gimme" school, and she's still waiting to hear on the other 3.
I think the web sites that I and a couple others posted are going to be more useful in determining what's a reach and what isn't than a few war stories here.
I would also say that if you want to improve his chances, work on his weak spots (such as interviewing) rather than trying to avoid it. He's not likely to get into a top 10 school without an interview.
Good luck!
