What do you guys think full capitulation would be?
Just glad I did not retire 7/31/07.
Down 9% for the last month.
Still up 15% for the year.
Still up 15% for the year.
The market seems to be getting a bit volatile. This could be a harbinger of a top. I am not good at predictions. It might just be a short-term correction. I think Sept and Oct are historically bad months for the market. ...
Still, I am sticking with the basic allocation strategy and rebalancing is the key (IMHO).
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OCTOBER: This is one of the peculiarly dangerous months to speculate in stocks in. The other are July, January, September, April, November, May, March, June, December, August, and February. Mark Twain from PuddnHead Wilson one of my favorite Twain books.
The market seems to be getting a bit volatile. This could be a harbinger of a top. I am not good at predictions. It might just be a short-term correction. I think Sept and Oct are historically bad months for the market. However, it would not surprise me if we have topped or are ready for a short bear in the next 18 - 30 months. It may not happen until after the election. The last bear market started in 2000 and ended in 2002 (I think) And one thing is for sure, there will be another Bear Market. Count on it. The actual things that trigger it can vary. Some of this will depend on interest rates and corporate profits. We need to keep in mind that aside from near term fear, the market is pricing in future expectations.
For now, corporate profits seem to be holding up.
Still, I am sticking with the basic allocation strategy and rebalancing is the key (IMHO).
I am like everyone else, I hate to see the market drop (for obvious reasons). But I have confidence in my approach.
profits are a lagging indicator. back in late 2000 a lot of companies reported stellar profit growth only to see their stock savaged. the market is always 6-12 months ahead of the headlines
i think the i banks are dropping like a rock for a reason. investors don't believe what they say and won't buy anything they sell. Bear Stearns CFO said that June was profitable, July should be profitable, but nothing on August.
i think it's something to worry about when there are questions about the ibanks profitablity instead of growth. and the latest figures i read were that 20% to 30% of buyers of the last few years are now locked out of the mortgage market due to the new standards
in the case of insurers, i've been reading rumors for years now that they bought a bunch of the credit default swaps on mortgages and will now have to pay up for all the foreclosures
Why did my insurance co. (State Farm) sent me a dividend check lastin the case of insurers, i've been reading rumors for years now that they bought a bunch of the credit default swaps on mortgages and will now have to pay up for all the foreclosures
From Mauldin's latest newsletter:
"Pay attention to the numbers I highlight in red for January through June of 2008. The largest portion of mortgage resets is not until next year.
We have just seen $197 billion of mortgage resets so far this year. That is less than we will see in two months (February and March) of next year."