Next Week's FOMC Meeting - Will Rates Go Up, Down or Stay Unchanged?

[ShokWaveRider]

Quick Speculative Poll just for fun. How accurate are we in speculating?

 

[USGrant1962]

Plus a quarter, this one has been long expected. More interesting will be the tea leaves for 2019 now that unemployment is at rock bottom and inflation has reached the Fed's 2.0% PCE target.

 

[Dtail]

I think if the Fed backs off, it will show capitulation to the leader. However, it could be the last one for awhile.

 

[mamadogmamacat]

Mr. Powell has given plenty of signals for a while now that this 0.25 point increase is a virtual certainty. i cannot see him causing confusion/doubt re his leadership of the Fed by backing off of it now. Nor do I think he should as current conditions warrant it, recent market gyrations notwithstanding. A more interesting poll would be what we think the Fed will do in 2019. I predict the economy will remain relatively good in 2019 and that there will be two more rate increases (3 at most) total for the year but none in the first qtr.

 

[GravitySucks]

Up 0.25
Anything else and the equity markets drop over 5% by days end.

 

[Montecfo]

Up .25%. I think their statement becomes more dovish. And the dots point closer to 2 hikes next year than 3.

Hopefully they are data driven.

 

[kgtest]

Up. Economy is strong and in the fed's eyes unrelated to the market volatility.

 

[audreyh1]

I think it’s clear that the Fed has been backpedaling, and made it clear they will be paying careful attention to economic data in 2019 and probably not nearly as aggressive.

That said, I think the market expects a Dec 0.25% Fed Rate raise, and so do I.

Just to be clear - this is the Fed funds rate, not “interest rates” in general. Thise are going all over the place depending on where on the curve and which day it is.

 

[ShokWaveRider]

And the results are...…………………………… see Poll numbers, 83% right, everyone else wrong....

 

[jazz4cash]

I wonder why they always raise by .25% increments. It seems like going up a bit more or less would be a reasonable way to appease the hawks and the doves.

 

[Texas Proud]

I wonder why they always raise by .25% increments. It seems like going up a bit more or less would be a reasonable way to appease the hawks and the doves.

Rarely do they move up or down by more than .25%... it is a process and they want to take things slow... people adjust to the new rate and in 3 months they can adjust again...


Big moves are only for big problems...

 

[Walt34]

I'm guessing a rise. But that's all it is, a guess.

 

[gstillson]

I'm guessing a rise. But that's all it is, a guess.

It is much easier to make a guess after the event has happened.

 

[DFDubb]

I'm guessing a rise. But that's all it is, a guess.

Man, what a guess!!!!!!!

 

[jazz4cash]

Rarely do they move up or down by more than .25%... it is a process and they want to take things slow... people adjust to the new rate and in 3 months they can adjust again...


Big moves are only for big problems...

Yes I agree but why not raise by .15% or something other than an exact .25% increment. IOW are they mandated to do it this way?

 

[audreyh1]

Yes I agree but why not raise by .15% or something other than an exact .25% increment. IOW are they mandated to do it this way?

No. It’s tradition.

Since 2000 they have moved up in 0.25% or 0.5% increments. They may have moved down in larger increments. Before 2000 they probably moved up in larger increments.

 

[GravitySucks]

Yes I agree but why not raise by .15% or something other than an exact .25% increment. IOW are they mandated to do it this way?

I think if at this point they did not stick to recent traditions the tea leaf readers would have whip sawed the markets. Markets like stability and consistency. I think that's even more true in the bond market.