RunningBum
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
- Joined
- Jun 18, 2007
- Messages
- 13,250
Well, I don't know how it ends (not sure how you do), but I suspect it'll end like it always has, since as you say, this time it is (probably) not different. We will have ups and downs, but generally the stock market will rise. We may also have periods of high inflation.Ditto.
Sentiment on this site and many, many others are overly pro-equities at this time only as a reflection of current conditions and that folks have been made complacent towards. Most who are older have been through this all before and knows how it ends. This time it is not different. As Buffett says, we'll find out who's been swimming naked when the tide goes out.
Investment objective and risk profile - that's what counts. Folks most always overestimate their risk tolerance.
I remember 1987, and how quickly it recovered. I learned a lot from the dotcom bubble burst and won't repeat my mistakes there. I didn't blink in 2008. I don't think I'll blink in the next drop.
We are probably at a high now. But I could've said that a year or two ago, so I'm glad I didn't react to that and get out of the market. I have almost no doubt a low is coming, but I don't know when. So I stay with a relatively aggressive AA, very slowly reducing equities over time.
I'm in my 50s, way too young to declare I've won the game even though I seem to be in great shape. I don't know what inflation will do, or what unexpected large expenses I might hit. Maybe in my late 70s or 80s I'll be confident enough to get out of the market. Not sure how old those of you are who say you've won the game.